Volcanic processes and human exposure as elements to build a risk model for Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

The activity of Fuego volcano during the 1999 - 2013 eruptive episode is studied through field, remote sensing and observatory records. Mapping of the deposits allows quantifying the erupted volumes and areas affected by the largest eruptions during this period. A wide range of volcanic processes results in a diversity of products and associated deposits, including minor airfall tephra, rockfall avalanches, lava flows, and pyroclastic flows. The activity can be characterized by long term, low level background activity, and sporadic larger explosive eruptions. Although the background activity erupts lava and ash at a low rate (~ 0.1 m3/s), the persistence of such activity over time results in a significant contribution (~ 30%) to the eruption budget during the studied period. Larger eruptions produced the majority of the volume of products during the studied period, mainly during three large events (May 21, 1999, June 29, 2003, and September 13, 2012), mostly in the form of pyroclastic flows. A total volume of ~ 1.4 x 108 m3 was estimated from the mapped deposits and the estimated background eruption rate. Posterior remobilization of pyroclastic flow material by stream erosion in the highly confined Barranca channels leads to lahar generation, either by normal rainfall, or by extreme rainfall events. A reassessment of the types of products and volumes erupted during the decade of 1970's allows comparing the activity happening since 1999 with the older activity, and suggests that many of the eruptive phenomena at Fuego may have similar mechanisms, despite the differences in scale between. The deposits of large pyroclastic flows erupted during the 1970's are remarkably similar in appearance to the deposit of pyroclastic flows from the 1999 - 2013 period, despite their much larger volume; this is also the case for prehistoric eruptions. Radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic flow deposits suggests that Fuego has produced large eruptions many times during the last ~ 2 ka, including larger eruptions during the last 500 years, which has important hazard implications. A survey was conducted among the local residents living near to the volcano, about their expectations of possible future crises. The results show that people are aware of the risk they could face in case of a large eruption, and therefore they are willing to evacuate in such case. However, their decision to evacuate may also be influenced by the conditions in which the evacuation could take place. If the evacuation represents a potential loss of their livelihood or property they will be more hesitant to leave their villages during a large eruption. The prospect of facing hardship conditions during the evacuation and in the shelters may further cause reluctance to evacuate. A short discussion on some of the issues regarding risk assessment and management through an early warning system is presented in the last chapter.

Early season ozone uptake is important for determining ozone tolerance in two trembling aspen clones

There is substantial genetic variability in response to ozone amongst and within tree species. Aspen is a highly variable species with a wide range of responses to ozone. Aspen response to elevated O3 levels is being investigated at the Aspen FACE site near Rhinelander, WI where five aspen clones of varying O3 tolerance have been fumigated with elevated O3 over the past decade. In this study, we examined the physiological differences in two of the aspen clones that differed significantly in their O3 tolerance with 8L being tolerant and 42E being sensitive. Throughout the 2007 and 2008 growing seasons we periodically estimated instantaneous photosynthetic rates, ACi responses and light response curves. The results of our study suggest that aspen clone 8L’s tolerance is due in part to decreased stomatal conductance early in the season, which lowered ozone uptake. Later during the season O3 uptake was comparable for the two clones. Our results also suggest the response of Vcmax, TPU, Rd, Gm, light compensation point and quantum flux to elevated O3 did not differ significantly between the two clones. Ozone uptake is important for ozone tolerance in clone 8L early in the season but cannot explain late season tolerance. Photosynthetic parameters for the two clones were similar, so clone 8L’s ozone tolerance is not due to a more efficient photosynthetic system.

Development of Vapor Deposited Silica Sol-Gel Particles for a Bioactive Materials System to Direct Osteoblast Behavior

Tissue engineering and regenerative medicine have emerged in an effort to generate replacement tissues capable of restoring native tissue structure and function, but because of the complexity of biologic system, this has proven to be much harder than originally anticipated. Silica based bioactive glasses are popular as biomaterials because of their ability to enhance osteogenesis and angiogenesis. Sol-gel processing methods are popular in generating these materials because it offers: 1) mild processing conditions; 2) easily controlled structure and composition; 3) the ability to incorporate biological molecules; and 4) inherent biocompatibility. The goal of this work was to develop a bioactive vaporization system for the deposition of silica sol-gel particles as a means to modify the material properties of a substrate at the nano- and micro- level to better mimic the instructive conditions of native bone tissue, promoting appropriate osteoblast attachment, proliferation, and differentiation as a means for supporting bone tissue regeneration. The size distribution, morphology and degradation behavior of the vapor deposited sol-gel particles developed here were found to be dependent upon formulation (H2O:TMOS, pH, Ca/P incorporation) and manufacturing (substrate surface character, deposition time). Additionally, deposition of these particles onto substrates can be used to modify overall substrate properties including hydrophobicity, roughness, and topography. Deposition of Ca/P sol particles induced apatite-like mineral formation on both two- and three-dimensional materials when exposed to body fluids. Gene expression analysis suggests that Ca/P sol particles induce upregulation osteoblast gene expression (Runx2, OPN, OCN) in preosteoblasts during early culture time points. Upon further modification-specifically increasing particle stability-these Ca/P sol particles possess the potential to serve as a simple and unique means to modify biomaterial surface properties as a means to direct osteoblast differentiation.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.