ELECTRICITY GENERATION MODELING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECASTS IN CHINA

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

The Domestic Natural Gas Shortage in China

This thesis analyzes the domestic shortage in the Chinese natural gas market. Both the domestic supply and demand of natural gas are growing fast in China. However, the supply cannot catch up with the demand. Under the present pricing mechanism, the Chinese natural gas market cannot get the equilibrium by itself. Expensive imports are inadequate to fill the increasing gap between the domestic demand and supply. Therefore, the shortage problem occurs. Since the energy gap can result in the arrested development of economics, the shortage problem need to be solved. This thesis gives three suggestions to solve the problem: the use of Unconventional Gas, Natural Gas Storage and Pricing Reform.