THE HYDROSOCIAL COSTS OF HIGH-VOLUME HYDRAULIC FRACTURING: A TALE OF TWO COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN

Although natural gas has been praised as a clean and abundant energy source, the varying impacts and uncertainties surrounding the process of extracting natural gas from unconventional sources, known as horizontal high-volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) or “fracking,” have raised important concerns. The practice of HVHF is expanding so quickly that the full impacts are not yet known. This thesis project, using a grounded theory methodological approach, explores the risks and benefits associated with HVHF as recognized by the residents of two Michigan counties, one that currently produces natural gas by HVHF (Crawford County) and one that does not (Barry County). Through an analysis of media content related to HVHF in each case study site and interviews with stakeholders in both counties, this study examines perceptions of risks and benefits by comparing two communities that differ in their level of experience with HVHF operations, contributing to our understanding of how perceptions of risks and benefits are shaped by natural gas development. The comparative analysis of the case study counties revealed similarities and differences between the case study counties. Overall, Barry County residents identified fewer benefits and more risks, and had stronger negative perceptions than Crawford County residents. This study contributes to the social science literature by developing a richer theoretical frame for understanding perceptions of HVHF and also shares recommendations for industry, organizations, regulators, and government leaders interested in effectively communicating with community stakeholders about the benefits and risks of HVHF.

ASSESSMENT OF ASPEN AND NORTHERN HARDWOODS EXTENT IN THIRTY THREE COUNTIES OF UPPER/LOWER MICHIGAN

The importance of the United States' wood and wood byproducts as biomass feedstocks is increasing as the concern about security and sustainability of global energy production continues to rise. Thus, second generation woody feedstock sources in Michigan, e.g., hybrid poplar and hybrid willow (Populus spp.), are viewed as a potential source of biomass for the proposed biofuel ethanol production plant in Kinross, MI. It is important to gain an understanding of the spatial distribution of current feedstock sources, harvesting accessibility via the transportation infrastructure and land ownerships in order to ensure long-term feedstock extent. This research provides insights into the current extent of aspen and northern hardwoods, and an assessment of potential for expanding the area of these feedstock sources based on pre-European settlement conditions. A geographic information system (GIS) was developed to compile available geospatial data for 33 counties located within 150 miles of the Kinross facility. These include present day and pre-European settlement land use/cover, soils, road infrastructure, and land ownerships. The results suggest that a significant amount of northern hardwoods has been converted to other land use/cover types since European settlement, and the "scattering" of aspen stands has increased. Furthermore, a significant amount of woody biomass is available in close proximity to the existing road network, which can be effectively utilized as feedstock. Potential aspen and northern hardwoods restoration areas are identified in the vicinity of road networks which can be used for future woody feedstock production.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Balancing wildlife and bioenergy values on private forestlands in the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan

There is interest in developing a reliable, sustainable, domestic U.S. biofuels industry. A domestic biofuels industry has the potential to provide economic, environmental, and national security benefits on a local, regional, national, and global level. The Mascoma Corporation plans to develop a cellulosic ethanol facility in Michigan’s eastern Upper Peninsula. The primary feedstock of the plant site would be trees sourced within a 150 mile supply radius. In the eastern Upper Peninsula, this radius encompasses Alger, Chippewa, Delta, Luce, Mackinac, and Schoolcraft counties. In these six counties there are 1,320,500 acres of NIPF (non-industrial private forestlands). These acres account for 40% of the total timberland in these six counties. Thus it is likely that in order for the successful implementation of a cellulosic ethanol facility the support of local NIPF owners will be necessary. This thesis presents research on how eastern Upper Peninsula forest landowners think about and manage their land. It is based on 48 in-depth interviews with these landowners. The goal was to determine how landowner values and beliefs, on a variety of issues including wildlife management, land management, biofuels development, and climate change, are expressed through both their current management decisions, and possibly their future land management decisions. Some of the values articulated by the landowners in this study included biodiversity protection, conservation of healthy game populations, and the production of high-value timber. Understanding the values and beliefs of landowners in the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan is critical for successfully developing a sustainable regional woody bioenergy.

Effects of Chemical Deicers on Amphibian Communites

Roads and highways present a unique challenge to wildlife as they exhibit substantial impacts on the surrounding ecosystem through the interruption of a number of ecological processes. With new roads added to the national highway system every year, an understanding of these impacts is required for effective mitigation of potential environmental impacts. A major contributor to these negative effects is the deposition of chemicals used in winter deicing activities to nearby surface waters. These chemicals often vary in composition and may affect freshwater species differently. The negative impacts of widespread deposition of sodium chloride (NaCl) have prompted a search for an `environmentally friendly' alternative. However, little research has investigated the potential environmental effects of widespread use of these alternatives. Herein, I detail the results of laboratory tests and field surveys designed to determine the impacts of road salt (NaCl) and other chemical deicers on amphibian communities in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Using larval amphibians I demonstrate the lethal impacts of a suite of chemical deicers on this sensitive, freshwater species. Larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvatica) were tolerant of short-term (96 hours) exposure to urea (CH4N2O), sodium chloride (NaCl), and magnesium chloride (MgCl2). However, these larvae were very sensitive to acetate products (C8H12CaMgO8, CH3COOK) and calcium chloride (CaCl2). These differences in tolerance suggest that certain deicers may be more harmful to amphibians than others. Secondly, I expanded this analysis to include an experiment designed to determine the sublethal effects of chronic exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of NaCl on two unique amphibian species, L. sylvatica and green frogs (L. clamitans). L. sylvatica tend to breed in small, ephemeral wetlands and metamorphose within a single season. However, L. clamitans breed primarily in more permanent wetlands and often remain as tadpoles for one year or more. These species employ different life history strategies in this region which may influence their response to chronic NaCl exposure. Both species demonstrated potentially harmful effects on individual fitness. L. sylvatica larvae had a high incidence of edema suggesting the NaCl exposure was a significant physiologic stressor to these larvae. L. clamitans larvae reduced tail length during their exposure which may affect adult fitness of these individuals. In order to determine the risk local amphibians face when using these roadside pools, I conducted a survey of the spatial distribution of chloride in the three northernmost counties of Michigan. This area receives a relatively low amount of NaCl which is confined to state and federal highways. The chloride concentrations in this region were much lower than those in urban systems; however, amphibians breeding in the local area may encounter harmful chloride levels arising from temporal variations in hydroperiods. Spatial variation of chloride levels suggests the road-effect zone for amphibians may be as large as 1000 m from a salt-treated highway. Lastly, I performed an analysis of the use of specific conductance to predict chloride concentrations in natural surface water bodies. A number of studies have used this regression to predict chloride concentrations from measurements of specific conductance. This method is often chosen in the place of ion chromatography due to budget and time constraints. However, using a regression method to characterize this relationship does not result in accurate chloride ion concentration estimates.