Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Investigations of Cloud Microphysical Response to Mixing Using Digital Holography

Cloud edge mixing plays an important role in the life cycle and development of clouds. Entrainment of subsaturated air affects the cloud at the microscale, altering the number density and size distribution of its droplets. The resulting effect is determined by two timescales: the time required for the mixing event to complete, and the time required for the droplets to adjust to their new environment. If mixing is rapid, evaporation of droplets is uniform and said to be homogeneous in nature. In contrast, slow mixing (compared to the adjustment timescale) results in the droplets adjusting to the transient state of the mixture, producing an inhomogeneous result. Studying this process in real clouds involves the use of airborne optical instruments capable of measuring clouds at the `single particle' level. Single particle resolution allows for direct measurement of the droplet size distribution. This is in contrast to other `bulk' methods (i.e. hot-wire probes, lidar, radar) which measure a higher order moment of the distribution and require assumptions about the distribution shape to compute a size distribution. The sampling strategy of current optical instruments requires them to integrate over a path tens to hundreds of meters to form a single size distribution. This is much larger than typical mixing scales (which can extend down to the order of centimeters), resulting in difficulties resolving mixing signatures. The Holodec is an optical particle instrument that uses digital holography to record discrete, local volumes of droplets. This method allows for statistically significant size distributions to be calculated for centimeter scale volumes, allowing for full resolution at the scales important to the mixing process. The hologram also records the three dimensional position of all particles within the volume, allowing for the spatial structure of the cloud volume to be studied. Both of these features represent a new and unique view into the mixing problem. In this dissertation, holographic data recorded during two different field projects is analyzed to study the mixing structure of cumulus clouds. Using Holodec data, it is shown that mixing at cloud top can produce regions of clear but humid air that can subside down along the edge of the cloud as a narrow shell, or advect down shear as a `humid halo'. This air is then entrained into the cloud at lower levels, producing mixing that appears to be very inhomogeneous. This inhomogeneous-like mixing is shown to be well correlated with regions containing elevated concentrations of large droplets. This is used to argue in favor of the hypothesis that dilution can lead to enhanced droplet growth rates. I also make observations on the microscale spatial structure of observed cloud volumes recorded by the Holodec.