Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

Measuring energy spectra of TeV gamma-ray emission from the Cygnus region of our galaxy with Milagro

High energy gamma rays can provide fundamental clues to the origins of cosmic rays. In this thesis, TeV gamma-ray emission from the Cygnus region is studied. Previously the Milagro experiment detected five TeV gamma-ray sources in this region and a significant excess of TeV gamma rays whose origin is still unclear. To better understand the diffuse excess the separation of sources and diffuse emission is studied using the latest and most sensitive data set of the Milagro experiment. In addition, a newly developed technique is applied that allows the energy spectrum of the TeV gamma rays to be reconstructed using Milagro data. No conclusive statement can be made about the spectrum of the diffuse emission from the Cygnus region because of its low significance of 2.2 σ above the background in the studied data sample. The entire Cygnus region emission is best fit with a power law with a spectral index of α=2.40 (68% confidence interval: 1.35-2.92) and a exponential cutoff energy of 31.6 TeV (10.0-251.2 TeV). In the case of a simple power law assumption without a cutoff energy the best fit yields a spectral index of α=2.97 (68% confidence interval: 2.83-3.10). Neither of these best fits are in good agreement with the data. The best spectral fit to the TeV emission from MGRO J2019+37, the brightest source in the Cygnus region, yields a spectral index of α=2.30 (68% confidence interval: 1.40-2.70) with a cutoff energy of 50.1 TeV (68% confidence interval: 17.8-251.2 TeV) and a spectral index of α=2.75 (68% confidence interval: 2.65-2.85) when no exponential cutoff energy is assumed. According to the present analysis, MGRO J2019+37 contributes 25% to the differential flux from the entire Cygnus at 15 TeV.