Land use/cover change using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems : Pic Macaya National Park, Haiti

A post classification change detection technique based on a hybrid classification approach (unsupervised and supervised) was applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+), and ASTER images acquired in 1987, 2000 and 2004 respectively to map land use/cover changes in the Pic Macaya National Park in the southern region of Haiti. Each image was classified individually into six land use/cover classes: built-up, agriculture, herbaceous, open pine forest, mixed forest, and barren land using unsupervised ISODATA and maximum likelihood supervised classifiers with the aid of field collected ground truth data collected in the field. Ground truth information, collected in the field in December 2007, and including equalized stratified random points which were visual interpreted were used to assess the accuracy of the classification results. The overall accuracy of the land classification for each image was respectively: 1987 (82%), 2000 (82%), 2004 (87%). A post classification change detection technique was used to produce change images for 1987 to 2000, 1987 to 2004, and 2000 to 2004. It was found that significant changes in the land use/cover occurred over the 17- year period. The results showed increases in built up (from 10% to 17%) and herbaceous (from 5% to 14%) areas between 1987 and 2004. The increase of herbaceous was mostly caused by the abandonment of exhausted agriculture lands. At the same time, open pine forest and mixed forest areas lost (75%) and (83%) of their area to other land use/cover types. Open pine forest (from 20% to 14%) and mixed forest (from18 to 12%) were transformed into agriculture area or barren land. This study illustrated the continuing deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion in the region, which in turn is leading to decrease in vegetative cover. The study also showed the importance of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to estimate timely changes in the land use/cover, and to evaluate their causes in order to design an ecological based management plan for the park.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.