Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

A REPORT ON THE MITEP PROGRAM AND ITS IMPACT ON MY TEACHING

This report has two major objectives. First, the results of an action research project conducted at my high school concerning the use of graphic organizers and their effects on students' written expression abilities. The findings from this action research project indicate that the use of graphic organizers can prove beneficial to students. The second major objective of this report is to provide a reflection and evaluation of my experiences as a participant in the Michigan Teacher Excellence Program (MiTEP). This program provided middle and high school science teachers with an opportunity to develop research based pedagogy techniques and develop the skill necessary to serve as leaders within the public school science community. The action research project described in the first chapter of this report was a collaborative project I participated in during my enrollment in ED 5705 at Michigan Technological University. I worked closely with two other teachers in my building - Brytt Ergang and James Wright. We met several times to develop a research question, and a procedure for testing our question. Each of us investigated how the use of graphic organizers by students in our classroom might impact their performance on writing assessments. We each collected data from several of our classes. In my case I collected data from 2 different classes over 2 different assignments. Our data was collected and the results analyzed separately from classroom to classroom. After the individual classroom data and corresponding analysis was compiled my fellow collaborators and I got together to discuss our findings. We worked together to write a conclusion based on our combined results in all of our classes.

Vegetation and hydrologic influences on carbon and nitrogen in subsurface water of a forested riparian wetland

Vegetation communities affect carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the subsurface water of mineral wetlands through the quality of their litter, their uptake of nutrients, root exudation and their effects on redox potential. However, vegetation influence on subsurface nutrient dynamics is often overshadowed by the influences of hydrology, soils and geology on nutrient dynamics. The effects of vegetation communities on carbon and nitrogen dynamics are important to consider when managing land that may change vegetation type or quantity so that wetland ecosystem functions can be retained. This study was established to determine the magnitude of the influences and interaction of vegetation cover and hydrology, in the form of water table fluctuations, on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a northern forested riparian wetland. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations were collected from a piezometer network in four different vegetation communities and were found to show complex responses to vegetation cover and water table fluctuations. Dissolved organic carbon, DIC, NO3- and NH4+ concentrations were influenced by forest vegetation cover. Both NO3- and NH4+ were also influenced by water table fluctuations. However, for DOC and NH4+ concentrations there appeared to be more complex interactions than were measured by this study. The results of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) did not correspond in relationship to the significance of vegetation communities. Dissolved inorganic carbon was influenced by an interaction between vegetation cover and water table fluctuations. More hydrological information is needed to make stronger conclusions about the relationship between vegetation and hydrology in controlling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a forested riparian wetland.