Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Vegetation and hydrologic influences on carbon and nitrogen in subsurface water of a forested riparian wetland

Vegetation communities affect carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the subsurface water of mineral wetlands through the quality of their litter, their uptake of nutrients, root exudation and their effects on redox potential. However, vegetation influence on subsurface nutrient dynamics is often overshadowed by the influences of hydrology, soils and geology on nutrient dynamics. The effects of vegetation communities on carbon and nitrogen dynamics are important to consider when managing land that may change vegetation type or quantity so that wetland ecosystem functions can be retained. This study was established to determine the magnitude of the influences and interaction of vegetation cover and hydrology, in the form of water table fluctuations, on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a northern forested riparian wetland. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations were collected from a piezometer network in four different vegetation communities and were found to show complex responses to vegetation cover and water table fluctuations. Dissolved organic carbon, DIC, NO3- and NH4+ concentrations were influenced by forest vegetation cover. Both NO3- and NH4+ were also influenced by water table fluctuations. However, for DOC and NH4+ concentrations there appeared to be more complex interactions than were measured by this study. The results of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) did not correspond in relationship to the significance of vegetation communities. Dissolved inorganic carbon was influenced by an interaction between vegetation cover and water table fluctuations. More hydrological information is needed to make stronger conclusions about the relationship between vegetation and hydrology in controlling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a forested riparian wetland.

Topographic and meteorological influences on spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

Characterizing the spatial scaling and dynamics of convective precipitation in mountainous terrain and the development of downscaling methods to transfer precipitation fields from one scale to another is the overall motivation for this research. Substantial progress has been made on characterizing the space-time organization of Midwestern convective systems and tropical rainfall, which has led to the development of statistical/dynamical downscaling models. Space-time analysis and downscaling of orographic precipitation has received less attention due to the complexities of topographic influences. This study uses multiscale statistical analysis to investigate the spatial scaling of organized thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall and flooding in mountainous regions. Focus is placed on the eastern and western slopes of the Appalachian region and the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Parameter estimates are analyzed over time and attention is given to linking changes in the multiscale parameters with meteorological forcings and orographic influences on the rainfall. Influences of geographic regions and predominant orographic controls on trends in multiscale properties of precipitation are investigated. Spatial resolutions from 1 km to 50 km are considered. This range of spatial scales is needed to bridge typical scale gaps between distributed hydrologic models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and attempts to address the open research problem of scaling organized thunderstorms and convection in mountainous terrain down to 1-4 km scales.

Digital processing and data compilation approach for using remotely sensed imagery to identify geological lineaments in hard-rock terrains : an application for groundwater explorations in Nicaragua

Sustainable yields from water wells in hard-rock aquifers are achieved when the well bore intersects fracture networks. Fracture networks are often not readily discernable at the surface. Lineament analysis using remotely sensed satellite imagery has been employed to identify surface expressions of fracturing, and a variety of image-analysis techniques have been successfully applied in “ideal” settings. An ideal setting for lineament detection is where the influences of human development, vegetation, and climatic situations are minimal and hydrogeological conditions and geologic structure are known. There is not yet a well-accepted protocol for mapping lineaments nor have different approaches been compared in non-ideal settings. A new approach for image-processing/synthesis was developed to identify successful satellite imagery types for lineament analysis in non-ideal terrain. Four satellite sensors (ASTER, Landsat7 ETM+, QuickBird, RADARSAT-1) and a digital elevation model were evaluated for lineament analysis in Boaco, Nicaragua, where the landscape is subject to varied vegetative cover, a plethora of anthropogenic features, and frequent cloud cover that limit the availability of optical satellite data. A variety of digital image processing techniques were employed and lineament interpretations were performed to obtain 12 complementary image products that were evaluated subjectively to identify lineaments. The 12 lineament interpretations were synthesized to create a raster image of lineament zone coincidence that shows the level of agreement among the 12 interpretations. A composite lineament interpretation was made using the coincidence raster to restrict lineament observations to areas where multiple interpretations (at least 4) agree. Nine of the 11 previously mapped faults were identified from the coincidence raster. An additional 26 lineaments were identified from the coincidence raster, and the locations of 10 were confirmed by field observation. Four manual pumping tests suggest that well productivity is higher for wells proximal to lineament features. Interpretations from RADARSAT-1 products were superior to interpretations from other sensor products, suggesting that quality lineament interpretation in this region requires anthropogenic features to be minimized and topographic expressions to be maximized. The approach developed in this study has the potential to improve siting wells in non-ideal regions.

Nitrogen Oxides in the North Atlantic Troposphere: Impacts of Boreal Wildfire and Anthropogenic Emissions

Nitrogen oxides play a crucial role in the budget of tropospheric ozone (O sub(3)) and the formation of the hydroxyl radical. Anthropogenic activities and boreal wildfires are large sources of emissions in the atmosphere. However, the influence of the transport of these emissions on nitrogen oxides and O sub(3) levels at hemispheric scales is not well understood, in particular due to a lack of nitrogen oxides measurements in remote regions. In order to address these deficiencies, measurements of NO, NO sub(2) and NO sub(y) (total reactive nitrogen oxides) were made in the lower free troposphere (FT) over the central North Atlantic region (Pico Mountain station, 38 degree N 28 degree W, 2.3 km asl) from July 2002 to August 2005. These measurements reveal a well-defined seasonal cycle of nitrogen oxides (NO sub(x) = NO+NO sub(2) and NO sub(y)) in the background central North Atlantic lower FT, with higher mixing ratios during the summertime. Observed NO sub(x) and NO sub(y) levels are consistent with long-range transport of emissions, but with significant removal en-route to the measurement site. Reactive nitrogen largely exists in the form of PAN and HNO sub(3) ( similar to 80-90% of NO sub(y)) all year round. A shift in the composition of NO sub(y) from dominance of PAN to dominance of HNO sub(3) occurs from winter-spring to summer-fall, as a result of changes in temperature and photochemistry over the region. Analysis of the long-range transport of boreal wildfire emissions on nitrogen oxides provides evidence of the very large-scale impacts of boreal wildfires on the tropospheric NO sub(x) and O sub(3) budgets. Boreal wildfire emissions are responsible for significant shifts in the nitrogen oxides distributions toward higher levels during the summer, with medians of NO sub(y) (117-175 pptv) and NO sub(x) (9-30 pptv) greater in the presence of boreal wildfire emissions. Extreme levels of NO sub(x) (up to 150 pptv) and NO sub(y) (up to 1100 pptv) observed in boreal wildfire plumes suggest that decomposition of PAN to NO sub(x) is a significant source of NO sub(x), and imply that O sub(3) formation occurs during transport. Ozone levels are also significantly enhanced in boreal wildfire plumes. However, a complex behavior of O sub(3) is observed in the plumes, which varies from significant to lower O sub(3) production to O sub(3) destruction. Long-range transport of anthropogenic emissions from North America also has a significant influence on the regional NO sub(x) and O sub(3) budgets. Transport of pollution from North America causes significant enhancements on nitrogen oxides year-round. Enhancements of CO, NO sub(y) and NO sub(x) indicate that, consistent with previous studies, more than 95% of the NO sub(x) emitted over the U.S. is removed before and during export out of the U.S. boundary layer. However, about 30% of the NO sub(x) emissions exported out of the U.S. boundary layer remain in the airmasses. Since the lifetime of NO sub(x) is shorter than the transport timescale, PAN decomposition and potentially photolysis of HNO sub(3) provide a supply of NO sub(x) over the central North Atlantic lower FT. Observed Delta O sub(3)/ Delta NO sub(y) and large NO sub(y) levels remaining in the North American plumes suggest potential O sub(3) formation well downwind from North America. Finally, a comparison of the nitrogen oxides measurements with results from the global chemical transport (GCT) model GEOS-Chem identifies differences between the observations and the model. GEOS-Chem reproduces the seasonal variation of nitrogen oxides over the central North Atlantic lower FT, but does not capture the magnitude of the cycles. Improvements in our understanding of nitrogen oxides chemistry in the remote FT and emission sources are necessary for the current GCT models to adequately estimate the impacts of emissions on tropospheric NO sub(x) and the resulting impacts on the O sub(3) budget.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.