Ecology of larval fishes and large zooplankton in the Keweenaw Current region of Lake Superior, with special focus on lake herring, Coregonus artedi

I assessed the influence of the Keweenaw Current and spring thermal bar on the distribution of larval fishes and large zooplankton in Lake Superior. In 1998 and 1999, samples were collected from inshore (0.2 – 3.0 km from shore) and offshore (5.0 – 9.0 km from shore) locations on three transects off the western coast of the Keweenaw Peninsula, Michigan. For larval fishes, density and size distribution patterns of lake herring (Coregonus artedi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), burbot (Lota lota), deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsoni), and spoonhead sculpin (Cottus ricei) suggest a seasonal inshore to offshore movement. For zooplankton, seasonal warming appeared to be the major factor that limited planktonic catches of the primarily benthic Mysisrelicta and Diporeia spp., while simultaneously stimulated growth and reproduction of the cladocerans Daphnia spp., Holopedium gibberum, and Bythotrephes cederstroemi. In contrast, calanoid copepods as a group were abundant throughout the entire sampling season. The greatest abundances of zooplankton were generally encountered offshore, even for the cladocerans, which apparently expanded from inshore to offshore locations with seasonal warming. In 2000, sampling efforts focused on lake herring. Samples were collected from surface waters at 0.1 – 17.0 km from shore on two transects. Lake herring larvae were also reared in the laboratory from eggs in order to validate the use of otolith microstructure for aging. Increment deposition was not statistically different from a daily rate starting from 28 days after hatching, near the time of yolk-sac absorption, but larvae with lower growth rates could not be aged as accurately. In Lake Superior, lake herring tended to be slightly more abundant, larger, and older at inshore locations, but a dense patch of younger larvae was also encountered 7 – 13 km from shore. The distribution iiipatterns suggest that larvae were transported by prevailing currents into the study region, possibly from the more productive spawning regions in western Lake Superior. Growth rates were suppressed at offshore locations where temperatures were less than 8°C. These results indicate that lake herring larvae may be transported far distances from spawning concentrations by longshore currents, and water temperatures may largely control their growth.

Topographic and meteorological influences on spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

Characterizing the spatial scaling and dynamics of convective precipitation in mountainous terrain and the development of downscaling methods to transfer precipitation fields from one scale to another is the overall motivation for this research. Substantial progress has been made on characterizing the space-time organization of Midwestern convective systems and tropical rainfall, which has led to the development of statistical/dynamical downscaling models. Space-time analysis and downscaling of orographic precipitation has received less attention due to the complexities of topographic influences. This study uses multiscale statistical analysis to investigate the spatial scaling of organized thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall and flooding in mountainous regions. Focus is placed on the eastern and western slopes of the Appalachian region and the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Parameter estimates are analyzed over time and attention is given to linking changes in the multiscale parameters with meteorological forcings and orographic influences on the rainfall. Influences of geographic regions and predominant orographic controls on trends in multiscale properties of precipitation are investigated. Spatial resolutions from 1 km to 50 km are considered. This range of spatial scales is needed to bridge typical scale gaps between distributed hydrologic models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and attempts to address the open research problem of scaling organized thunderstorms and convection in mountainous terrain down to 1-4 km scales.

Slope stability analysis of the Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala, using limit equilibrium and finite element method

The Pacaya volcanic complex is part of the Central American volcanic arc, which is associated with the subduction of the Cocos tectonic plate under the Caribbean plate. Located 30 km south of Guatemala City, Pacaya is situated on the southern rim of the Amatitlan Caldera. It is the largest post-caldera volcano, and has been one of Central America’s most active volcanoes over the last 500 years. Between 400 and 2000 years B.P, the Pacaya volcano had experienced a huge collapse, which resulted in the formation of horseshoe-shaped scarp that is still visible. In the recent years, several smaller collapses have been associated with the activity of the volcano (in 1961 and 2010) affecting its northwestern flanks, which are likely to be induced by the local and regional stress changes. The similar orientation of dry and volcanic fissures and the distribution of new vents would likely explain the reactivation of the pre-existing stress configuration responsible for the old-collapse. This paper presents the first stability analysis of the Pacaya volcanic flank. The inputs for the geological and geotechnical models were defined based on the stratigraphical, lithological, structural data, and material properties obtained from field survey and lab tests. According to the mechanical characteristics, three lithotechnical units were defined: Lava, Lava-Breccia and Breccia-Lava. The Hoek and Brown’s failure criterion was applied for each lithotechnical unit and the rock mass friction angle, apparent cohesion, and strength and deformation characteristics were computed in a specified stress range. Further, the stability of the volcano was evaluated by two-dimensional analysis performed by Limit Equilibrium (LEM, ROCSCIENCE) and Finite Element Method (FEM, PHASE 2 7.0). The stability analysis mainly focused on the modern Pacaya volcano built inside the collapse amphitheatre of “Old Pacaya”. The volcanic instability was assessed based on the variability of safety factor using deterministic, sensitivity, and probabilistic analysis considering the gravitational instability and the effects of external forces such as magma pressure and seismicity as potential triggering mechanisms of lateral collapse. The preliminary results from the analysis provide two insights: first, the least stable sector is on the south-western flank of the volcano; second, the lowest safety factor value suggests that the edifice is stable under gravity alone, and the external triggering mechanism can represent a likely destabilizing factor.

Investigations into the degassing and eruption mechanisms of Nyamuragira volcano, Democratic Republic of the Congo (Africa)

One of two active volcanoes in the western branch of the East African Rift, Nyamuragira (1.408ºS, 29.20ºE; 3058 m) is located in the D.R. Congo. Nyamuragira emits large amounts of SO2 (up to ~1 Mt/day) and erupts low-silica, alkalic lavas, which achieve flow rates of up to ~20 km/hr. The source of the large SO2 emissions and pre-eruptive magma conditions were unknown prior to this study, and 1994-2010 lava volumes were only recently mapped via satellite imagery, mainly due to the region’s political instability. In this study, new olivine-hosted melt inclusion volatile (H2O, CO2, S, Cl, F) and major element data from five historic Nyamuragira eruptions (1912, 1938, 1948, 1986, 2006) are presented. Melt compositions derived from the 1986 and 2006 tephra samples best represent pre-eruptive volatile compositions because these samples contain naturally glassy inclusions that underwent less post-entrapment modification than crystallized inclusions. The total amount of SO2 released from the 1986 (0.04 Mt) and 2006 (0.06 Mt) eruptions are derived using the petrologic method, whereby S contents in melt inclusions are scaled to erupted lava volumes. These amounts are significantly less than satellite-based SO2 emissions for the same eruptions (1986 = ~1 Mt; 2006 = ~2 Mt). Potential explanations for this observation are: 1) accumulation of a vapor phase within the magmatic system that is only released during eruptions, and/or 2) syn-eruptive gas release from unerupted magma. Post-1994 Nyamuragira lava volumes were not available at the beginning of this study. These flows (along with others since 1967) are mapped with Landsat MSS, TM, and ETM+, Hyperion, and ALI satellite data and combined with published flow thicknesses to derive volumes. Satellite remote sensing data was also used to evaluate Nyamuragira SO2 emissions. These results show that the most recent Nyamuragira eruptions injected SO2 into the atmosphere between 15 km (2006 eruption) and 5 km (2010 eruption). This suggests that past effusive basaltic eruptions (e.g., Laki 1783) are capable of similar plume heights that reached the upper troposphere or tropopause, allowing SO2 and resultant aerosols to remain longer in the atmosphere, travel farther around the globe, and affect global climates.

Evolution of the Southern Kenya Rift from Miocene to present with a focus on the Magadi area

The Kenya (a.k.a., Gregory) Rift is a geologically active area located within the eastern branch of the larger East African Rift System (EARS). The study area is located in the southern Kenya Rift between 1° South and the Kenya-Tanzania border (covering approximately 1.5 square degrees, semi-centered on Lake Magadi) and is predominantly filled with extrusive igneous rocks (mostly basalts, phonolites and trachytes) of Miocene age or younger. Sediments are thin, less than 1.5Ma, and are confined to small grabens. The EARS can serve both as an analogue for ancient continental rifting and as a modern laboratory to observe the geologic processes responsible for rifting. This study demonstrates that vintage (as in older, quality maps published by the Kenya Geological Survey, that may be outdated based on newer findings) quarter-degree maps can be successfully combined with recently published data, and used to interpret satellite (mainly Landsat 7) images to produce versatile, updated digital maps. The study area has been remapped using this procedure and although it covers a large area, the mapping retains a quadrangle level of detail. Additionally, all geologic mapping elements (formations, faults, etc.) have been correlated across older map boundaries so that geologic units don't end artificially at degree boundaries within the study area. These elements have also been saved as individual digital files to facilitate future analysis. A series of maps showing the evolution of the southern Kenya rift from the Miocene to the present was created by combining the updated geologic map with age dates for geologic formations and fault displacements. Over 200 age dates covering the entire length of the Kenya Rift have been compiled for this study, and 6 paleo-maps were constructed to demonstrate the evolution of the area, starting with the eruption of the Kishalduga and Lisudwa melanephelinites onto the metamorphic basement around 15Ma. These eruptions occurred before the initial rift faulting and were followed by a massive eruption of phonolites between 13-10 Ma that covered most of the Kenya dome. This was followed by a period of relative quiescence, until the initial faulting defined the western boundary of the rift around 7Ma. The resulting graben was asymmetrical until corresponding faults to the east developed around 3Ma. The rift valley was flooded by basalts and trachytes between 3Ma and 700ka, after which the volcanic activity slowed to a near halt. Since 700ka most of the deposition has been comprised of sediments, mainly from lakes occupying the various basins in the area. The main results of this study are, in addition to a detailed interpretation of the rift development, a new geologic map that correlates dozens of formations across old map boundaries and a compilation of over 300 age dates. Specific products include paleomaps, tables of fault timing and displacement, and volume estimates of volcanic formations. The study concludes with a generalization of the present environment at Magadi including discussions of lagoon chemistry, mantle gases in relation to the trona deposit, and biology of the hot springs. Several biologic samples were collected during the 2006 field season in an attempt to characterize the organisms that are commonly seen in the present Lake Magadi environment. Samples were selected to represent the different, distinctive forms that are found in the hotsprings. Each sample had it own distinctive growth habit, and analysis showed that each was formed by a different cyanobacterial. Actual algae was rare in the collected samples, and represented by a few scattered diatoms.

A Balance Shifted: The Unionization of Michigan’s Lake Copper District, 1935-1955

Three decades after the unsuccessful 1913-1914 strike at the Lake District copper mines of Michigan, workers organized as Local 584 of the International Union of Mine, Mill, and Smelter Workers (Mine Mill) signed a union contract with Calumet & Hecla Consolidated Copper Company. C & H was the last and most significant of the region’s three major copper mining companies to unionize during the three-year period from 1939 to 1942. This paper tells the untold history of the successful union drives in the Lake District’s copper mines, starting with Copper Range Company in 1939 and encompassing the subsequent unionizations of Quincy Mining Company and finally C & H. The paper develops thematic connections between the 1913-1914, including Mine Mill’s lineage to the Western Federation of Miners, parallel ethnic dimensions, and, most significantly, the contrasting role of state authority between the two time periods. The paper carries the Lake District’s labor history forward to 1955 to include United Steelworkers’ successful challenge to Mine Mill in 1950 and the strike of 1955. This history also incorporates source material from the papers of highly influential union organizer and representative Eugene Saari, material which to date has not been integrated into the labor history of the region. This paper has not yet been submitted.

SPRING DISCHARGE MONITORING IN LOW-RESOURCE SETTINGS: A CASE STUDY OF CONCEPCIÓN CHIQUIRICHAPA, GUATEMALA

Water springs are the principal source of water for many localities in Central America, including the municipality of Concepción Chiquirichapa in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Long-term monitoring records are critical for informed water management as well as resource forecasting, though data are scarce and monitoring in low-resource settings presents special challenges. Spring discharge was monitored monthly in six municipal springs during the author’s Peace Corps assignment, from May 2011 to March 2012, and water level height was monitored in two spring boxes over the same time period using automated water-level loggers. The intention of this approach was to circumvent the need for frequent and time-intensive manual measurement by identifying a fixed relationship between discharge and water level. No such relationship was identified, but the water level record reveals that spring yield increased for four months following Tropical Depression 12E in October 2011. This suggests that the relationship between extreme precipitation events and long-term water spring yields in Concepción should be examined further. These limited discharge data also indicate that aquifer baseflow recession and catchment water balance could be successfully characterized if a long-term discharge record were established. This study also presents technical and social considerations for selecting a methodology for spring discharge measurement and highlights the importance of local interest in conducting successful community-based research in intercultural low-resource settings.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

A STUDY OF THE IMPACTS OF FREEZE-THAW ON CLIFF RECESSION AT THE CALVERT CLIFFS IN CALVERT COUNTY, MARYLAND

The Calvert Cliffs, which form much of the western coastline of the Chesapeake Bay in Calvert County, Maryland, are actively eroding and destabilizing, resulting in a critical situation for many homes in close proximity to the slope's crest. Past studies have identified that where waves directly interact with the toe of the slope, wave action controls cliff recession; however, where waves do not regularly interact with the slope toe, the past work identified that freeze-thaw controls recession. This study investigated the validity of this second claim by analyzing the recession rate and freeze-thaw behavior of six study sites along the Calvert Cliffs that are not directly affected by waves. While waves do remove failed material from the toe, in these regions freeze-thaw is believed to be the dominant factor driving recession at the Calvert Cliffs. Past recession rates were calculated using historical aerial photographs and were analyzed together with a number of other variables selected to represent the freeze-thaw behavior of the Calvert Cliffs. The investigation studied sixteen independent variables and found that over 65% of recession at these study sites can be represented by the following five variables: (1) cliff face direction, (2 and 3) the percent of total cliff height composed of soil with freeze-thaw susceptibility F4 and F2, (4) the number of freeze-thaw cycles, and (5) the weighted shear strength. Future mitigation techniques at these sites should focus on addressing these variables and might include vegetation or addressing the presence of water along the face of the slope. Unmitigated, the Calvert Cliffs will continue to recede until a stable slope angle is reached and maintained.