Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

PARTICIPANT IMPACTS FROM A PARTICIPATORY WATER MODELING WORKSHOP IN THE SONORA RIVER BASIN, MEXICO

Much of the research in the field of participatory modeling (PM) has focused on the developed world. Few cases are focused on developing regions, and even fewer on Latin American developing countries. The work that has been done in Latin America has often involved water management, often specifically involving water users, and has not focused on the decision making stage of the policy cycle. Little work has been done to measure the effect PM may have on the perceptions and beliefs of decision makers. In fact, throughout the field of PM, very few attempts have been made to quantitatively measure changes in participant beliefs and perceptions following participation. Of the very few exceptions, none have attempted to measure the long-term change in perceptions and beliefs. This research fills that gap. As part of a participatory modeling project in Sonora, Mexico, a region with water quantity and quality problems, I measured the change in beliefs among participants about water models: ability to use and understand them, their usefulness, and their accuracy. I also measured changes in beliefs about climate change, and about water quantity problems, specifically the causes, solutions, and impacts. I also assessed participant satisfaction with the process and outputs from the participatory modeling workshops. Participants were from water agencies, academic institutions, NGOs, and independent consulting firms. Results indicated that participant comfort and self-efficacy with water models, their beliefs in the usefulness of water models, and their beliefs about the impact of water quantity problems changed significantly as a result of the workshops. I present my findings and discuss the results.

Vegetation and hydrologic influences on carbon and nitrogen in subsurface water of a forested riparian wetland

Vegetation communities affect carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the subsurface water of mineral wetlands through the quality of their litter, their uptake of nutrients, root exudation and their effects on redox potential. However, vegetation influence on subsurface nutrient dynamics is often overshadowed by the influences of hydrology, soils and geology on nutrient dynamics. The effects of vegetation communities on carbon and nitrogen dynamics are important to consider when managing land that may change vegetation type or quantity so that wetland ecosystem functions can be retained. This study was established to determine the magnitude of the influences and interaction of vegetation cover and hydrology, in the form of water table fluctuations, on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a northern forested riparian wetland. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations were collected from a piezometer network in four different vegetation communities and were found to show complex responses to vegetation cover and water table fluctuations. Dissolved organic carbon, DIC, NO3- and NH4+ concentrations were influenced by forest vegetation cover. Both NO3- and NH4+ were also influenced by water table fluctuations. However, for DOC and NH4+ concentrations there appeared to be more complex interactions than were measured by this study. The results of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) did not correspond in relationship to the significance of vegetation communities. Dissolved inorganic carbon was influenced by an interaction between vegetation cover and water table fluctuations. More hydrological information is needed to make stronger conclusions about the relationship between vegetation and hydrology in controlling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a forested riparian wetland.