Evaluating northern hardwood management using retrospective analysis and diameter distributions

Northern hardwood management was assessed throughout the state of Michigan using data collected on recently harvested stands in 2010 and 2011. Methods of forensic estimation of diameter at breast height were compared and an ideal, localized equation form was selected for use in reconstructing pre-harvest stand structures. Comparisons showed differences in predictive ability among available equation forms which led to substantial financial differences when used to estimate the value of removed timber. Management on all stands was then compared among state, private, and corporate landowners. Comparisons of harvest intensities against a liberal interpretation of a well-established management guideline showed that approximately one third of harvests were conducted in a manner which may imply that the guideline was followed. One third showed higher levels of removals than recommended, and one third of harvests were less intensive than recommended. Multiple management guidelines and postulated objectives were then synthesized into a novel system of harvest taxonomy, against which all harvests were compared. This further comparison showed approximately the same proportions of harvests, while distinguishing sanitation cuts and the future productive potential of harvests cut more intensely than suggested by guidelines. Stand structures are commonly represented using diameter distributions. Parametric and nonparametric techniques for describing diameter distributions were employed on pre-harvest and post-harvest data. A common polynomial regression procedure was found to be highly sensitive to the method of histogram construction which provides the data points for the regression. The discriminative ability of kernel density estimation was substantially different from that of the polynomial regression technique.

EVALUATION OF MAGNESIUM AS A HALL THRUSTER PROPELLANT

In this study, the use of magnesium as a Hall thruster propellant was evaluated. A xenon Hall thruster was modified such that magnesium propellant could be loaded into the anode and use waste heat from the thruster discharge to drive the propellant vaporization. A control scheme was developed, which allowed for precise control of the mass flow rate while still using plasma heating as the main mechanism for evaporation. The thruster anode, which also served as the propellant reservoir, was designed such that the open area was too low for sufficient vapor flow at normal operating temperatures (i.e. plasma heating alone). The remaining heat needed to achieve enough vapor flow to sustain thruster discharge came from a counter-wound resistive heater located behind the anode. The control system has the ability to arrest thermal runaway in a direct evaporation feed system and stabilize the discharge current during voltage-limited operation. A proportional-integral-derivative control algorithm was implemented to enable automated operation of the mass flow control system using the discharge current as the measured variable and the anode heater current as the controlled parameter. Steady-state operation at constant voltage with discharge current excursions less than 0.35 A was demonstrated for 70 min. Using this long-duration method, stable operation was achieved with heater powers as low as 6% of the total discharge power. Using the thermal mass flow control system the thruster operated stably enough and long enough that performance measurements could be obtained and compared to the performance of the thruster using xenon propellant. It was found that when operated with magnesium, the thruster has thrust ranging from 34 mN at 200 V to 39 mN at 300 V with 1.7 mg/s of propellant. It was found to have 27 mN of thrust at 300 V using 1.0 mg/s of propellant. The thrust-to-power ratio ranged from 24 mN/kW at 200 V to 18 mN/kW at 300 volts. The specific impulse was 2000 s at 200 V and upwards of 2700 s at 300 V. The anode efficiency was found to be ~23% using magnesium, which is substantially lower than the 40% anode efficiency of xenon at approximately equivalent molar flow rates. Measurements in the plasma plume of the thruster—operated using magnesium and xenon propellants—were obtained using a Faraday probe to measure off-axis current distribution, a retarding potential analyzer to measure ion energy, and a double Langmuir probe to measure plasma density, electron temperature, and plasma potential. Additionally, the off axis current distributions and ion energy distributions were compared to measurements made in krypton and bismuth plasmas obtained in previous studies of the same thruster. Comparisons showed that magnesium had the largest beam divergence of the four propellants while the others had similar divergence. The comparisons also showed that magnesium and krypton both had very low voltage utilization compared to xenon and bismuth. It is likely that the differences in plume structure are due to the atomic differences between the propellants; the ionization mean free path goes down with increasing atomic mass. Magnesium and krypton have long ionization mean free paths and therefore require physically larger thruster dimensions for efficient thruster operation and would benefit from magnetic shielding.

Bayesian change-point analysis in linear regression model with scale mixtures of normal distributions

In this thesis, we consider Bayesian inference on the detection of variance change-point models with scale mixtures of normal (for short SMN) distributions. This class of distributions is symmetric and thick-tailed and includes as special cases: Gaussian, Student-t, contaminated normal, and slash distributions. The proposed models provide greater flexibility to analyze a lot of practical data, which often show heavy-tail and may not satisfy the normal assumption. As to the Bayesian analysis, we specify some prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the variance change-point models with the SMN distributions. Due to the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, we propose an efficient Gibbs-type with Metropolis- Hastings sampling algorithm for posterior Bayesian inference. Thereafter, following the idea of [1], we consider the problems of the single and multiple change-point detections. The performance of the proposed procedures is illustrated and analyzed by simulation studies. A real application to the closing price data of U.S. stock market has been analyzed for illustrative purposes.