UNDERSTANDING FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS AND THE EFFECTS OF SHEA TREE Vitellaria paradoxa DISTRIBUTION IN AGROFORESTRY PARKLANDS OF THE UPPER WEST REGION, GHANA

Agroforestry parklands represent a vast majority of the agricultural landscape under subsistent-oriented farming in semi-arid West Africa. Parklands are characterized by the growth of well- maintained trees (e.g., shea) on cultivated fields as a result of both environmental and human influences. Shea (Vitellaria paradoxa) provides a cultural and economic benefit to the local people of Ghana, especially women. Periods between traditional fallow rotation systems have reduced recently due to agricultural development and a demand for higher production. As a result, shea trees, which regenerate during fallow periods, has decreased over the landscape. The aim of this study was to determine beneficial spatial distributions of V. paradoxa to maintain high yields of staple crops, and how management of V. paradoxa will differ between male and female farmers as a result of farmer based needs and use of shea. Vegetation growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays) associated with individual trees, clumped trees, and open fields were measured. Soil moisture and light availability were also measured to determine how V. paradoxa affected resource availability of maize in either clumped or scattered distributions of V. paradoxa. As expected, light availability increased as measurement locations moved farther away from all trees. However, soil moisture was actually greater under trees in clumps than under individual trees. Maize stalk height and cob length showed no difference between clumped and single trees at each measurement location. Grain yield per plot and per cob increased as measurement locations moved farther from single trees, but was actually greater near clumped trees that in the open field subplots. Cob length and maize stalk height increased with greater light availability, but grain yield per cob or per plot showed no relationship with light, but were not affected by soil moisture. Conversely, grain yield increased with increasing soil moisture, but had no relationship with light availability. Initial farming capital is the largest constraint to female farmers; therefore the collection of shea can help provide women with added income that could meet their specific farming needs. Our data indicate that overall effects of maintaining clumped distributions of V. paradoxa provided beneficial microclimates for staple crops when compared to single trees. It is recommended that male and female farmers allow shea to grow in clumped spatial distributions rather than maintaining scattered, individual trees.

Evaluating Karner Blue Butterfly (Lycaeides Melissa Samuelis Nabokov) Habitat Selection in the State of Wisconsin, USA

The federally endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis Nabokov) persists in rare oak/pine grassland communities spanning across the Great Lakes region, relying on host plant wild blue lupine (Lupinus perennis). Conservation efforts since 1992 have led to the development of several programs that restore and monitor habitat. This study aims to evaluate Karner blue habitat selection in the state of Wisconsin and develop high-resolution tools for use in conservation efforts. Spatial predictive models developed during this study accurately predicted potential habitat across state properties based on soils and canopy cover, and identified ~51-100% of Karner blue occurrences based on lupine and shrub/tree cover, and focal nectar plant abundance. When evaluated relative to American bison (Bison bison), Karner blues and lupine were more likely to occur in areas of low disturbance, but aggregated where bison were recently present in areas of moderate/high disturbance. Lupine C:N ratio increased relative to cover of shrubs/trees and focal nectar plant abundance and decreased relative to cover of groundlitter. Karner blue density increased with lupine C:N ratio, decreased with nitrogen content, and was not related to phenolic levels. We strongly suggest that areas of different soil textures must be managed differently and that maintenance techniques should generate a mix of shrubs/tree cover (10-45%), groundlitter cover (~10-40%), >5% cover of lupine, and establish an abundance of focal nectar plants. This study provides unique tools for use in conservation and should aid in focusing management efforts and recovery of this species.

The growth response of planted red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) to alternative thinning regimes

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) plantations have been established in Michigan with expectations of mixed final product goals: pulpwood, boltwood and possibly sawlogs. The effects of alternative treatments on tree and stand attributes were examined in: the Atlantic Mine trial, thinned in spring 2006 with three alternatives: (1) every fifth row removal plus crown thinning, (2) every third row removal plus crown thinning and (3) every third row removal plus thinning from below; the Crane Lake trial, thinned in fall 2004 with two alternatives: (1) every third row removal and (2) every third row removal plus thinning from above; the Middle Branch East trial, thinned in fall 2004 with two alternatives: (1) every third row removal plus one in three remaining trees and (2) every third row removal plus one in five remaining trees. All trials included control plots where no thinning was applied. The trials were established in the field as a randomized complete block experiments, in which individual trees were measured in 3-4 fixed-area plots located within each treatment unit. Growth responses of diameter at breast height, height, live crown length, stand basal area and stand volume were examined along with their increments. The Tukey multiple comparison test was used to detect significant differences between treatments in their effect on tree growth response. The results showed that diameter increment increased with increasing thinning intensity and was significantly larger in thinned plots compared to unthinned. Treatments did not substantially affect average tree height increment. Stand basal area increment was significantly larger in the control plot only the year after the harvest. Volume increment was significantly larger in controls, but did not differ considerably among remaining treatments. However, the ratio of volume increment to standing volume was significantly smaller in unthinned plots compared to thinned. Since thinning treatments in all trials hardly ever differed significantly in their effect on stand growth response, mainly due to the relatively short time of the evaluation, heavier thinnings should be favored due to higher volume increment rates and shorter time needed to reach desirable diameters. Nevertheless, economic evaluation based on obtained results will be conducted in the future in order to make final decisions about the most profitable treatment.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Retention of canopy trees as biological legacies for balancing woody biomass production and biodiversity in managed aspen forests of the Great Lakes Region

Green-tree retention under the conceptual framework of ecological forestry has the potential to provide both biomass feedstock for industry and maintain quality wildlife habitat. I examined the effects of retained canopy trees as biological legacies (“legacy trees”) in aspen (Populus spp.) forests on above-ground live woody biomass, understory plant floristic quality, and bird diversity. Additionally, I evaluated habitat quality for a high conservation priority species, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera). I selected 27 aspen-dominated forest stands in northern Wisconsin with nine stands in each of three legacy tree retention treatments (conifer retention, hardwood retention, and clearcuts or no retention) across a chronosequence (4-36 years post-harvest). Conifer retention stands had greater legacy tree and all tree species biomass but lower regenerating tree biomass than clearcuts. Coniferous but not hardwood legacy trees appeared to suppress regenerating tree biomass. I evaluated the floristic quality of the understory plant assemblage by estimating the mean coefficient of conservatism (C). Mean C was lower in young stands than in middle-age or old stands; there was a marginally significant (p=0.058) interaction effect between legacy tree retention treatment and stand age. Late-seral plant species were positively associated with stand age and legacy tree diameter or age revealing an important relationship between legacy tree retention and stand development. Bird species richness was greatest in stands with hardwood retention particularly early in stand development. Six conservation priority bird species were indicators of legacy tree retention or clearcuts. Retention of legacy trees in aspen stands provided higher quality nest habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler than clearcuts based on high pairing success and nesting activity. Retention of hardwoods, particularly northern red oak (Quercus rubra), yielded the most consistent positive effects in this study with the highest bird species richness and the highest quality habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler. This treatment maintained stand biomass comparable to clearcuts and did not suppress regenerating tree biomass. In conclusion, legacy tree retention can enhance even-aged management techniques to produce a win-win scenario for the conservation of declining bird species and late-seral understory plants and for production of woody biomass feedstock from naturally regenerating aspen forests.

Golden-winged Warbler habitat model validation for northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota

Between 1966 and 2003, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) experienced declines of 3.4% per year in large parts of the breeding range and has been identified by Partners in Flight as one of 28 land birds requiring expedient action to prevent its continued decline. It is currently being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. A major step in advancing our understanding of the status and habitat preferences of Golden-winged Warbler populations in the Upper Midwest was initiated by the publication of new predictive spatially explicit Golden-winged Warbler habitat models for the northern Midwest. Here, I use original data on observed Golden-winged Warbler abundances in Wisconsin and Minnesota to compare two population models: the hierarchical spatial count (HSC) model with the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model. I assessed how well the field data compared to the model predictions and found that within Wisconsin, the HSC model performed slightly better than the HSI model whereas both models performed relatively equally in Minnesota. For the HSC model, I found a 10% error of commission in Wisconsin and a 24.2% error of commission for Minnesota. Similarly, the HSI model has a 23% error of commission in Minnesota; in Wisconsin due to limited areas where the HSI model predicted absences, there was incomplete data and I was unable to determine the error of commission for the HSI model. These are sites where the model predicted presences and the Golden-winged Warbler did not occur. To compare predicted abundance from the two models, a 3x3 contingency table was used. I found that when overlapped, the models do not complement one another in identifying Golden-winged Warbler presences. To calculate discrepancy between the models, the error of commission shows that the HSI model has only a 6.8% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSC model. The HSC model has only 3.3% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSI model. These findings highlight the importance of grasses for nesting, shrubs used for cover and foraging, and trees for song perches and foraging as key habitat characteristics for breeding territory occupancy by singing males.