Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

THE EFFECTS OF WEB-BASED TECHNOLOGICAL RESOURCES IN A RURAL SCIENCE CLASSROOM

Today’s technology is evolving at an exponential rate. Everyday technology is finding more inroads into our education system. This study seeks to determine if having access to technology, including iPad tablets and a teacher's physical science webpage resources (videos, PowerPoint® presentations, and audio podcasts), assists ninth grade high school students in attaining greater comprehension and improved scientific literacy. Comprehension of the science concepts was measured by comparing current student pretest and post test scores on a teacher-written assessment. The current student post test scores were compared with prior classes’ (2010-2011 and 2009-2010) to determine if there was a difference in outcomes between the technology interventions and traditional instruction. Students entered responses to a technology survey that measured intervention usage and their perception of helpfulness of each intervention. The current year class’ mean composite scores, between the pretest and post test increased by 6.9 points (32.5%). Student composite scores also demonstrated that the interventions were successful in helping a majority of students (64.7%) attain the curriculum goals. The interventions were also successful in increasing student scientific literacy by meeting all of Bloom's cognitive levels that were assessed. When compared with prior 2010-2011 and 2009-2010 classes, the current class received a higher mean post test score indicating a positive effect of the use of technological interventions. The survey showed a majority of students utilized at least some of the technology interventions and perceived them as helpful, especially the videos and PowerPoint® presentations.