Management impacts on Carex assiniboinensis and Cardamine concatenata on the Ottawa National Forest

Monitoring of herbaceous plants on the Ottawa National Forest (ONF) is used to understand the impact of forest management on understory composition and site conditions. In their planning, national forests are required to take into account management impacts on diversity and ecosystem health. The effect of management on understory species is dependent on various factors, including the intensity of disturbance and the biology of the plant. In the first study in this report, a population of Carex assiniboinensis, a Michigan state threatened species, was monitored for seven seasons including before logging commenced, in order to determine the sedge’s response to a single-tree selection harvest. Analyses provided insights for management of C. assiniboinensis at the stand level over the short-term. In the second study in this report, the use of the cutleaf toothwort (Cardamine concatenata) as a Management Indicator Species on the ONF was reviewed. Data were analyzed to determine the suitability of using C. concatenata to monitor impacts of forest management on site conditions. The various factors that affect understory species population dynamics illuminated the challenges of using indicator species to monitor site conditions. Insights from the study provide a greater understanding of management impacts on understory species across the Ottawa National Forest.

Promoting Biodiversity in Forest Ecosystems Using Ecological Forestry

A subset of forest management techniques, termed ecological forestry, have been developed in order to produce timber and maintain the ecological integrity of forest communities through practices that more closely mirror natural disturbance regimes. Even though alternative methods have been described and tested, these approaches still need to be established and analyzed in a variety of geographic regions in order to calibrate and measure effectiveness across different forest types. The primary objective of this research project was to assess whether group selection combined with legacy-tree retention could enhance mid-tolerant tree recruitment in a late-successional northern hardwood forest. In order to evaluate a novel alternative regeneration technique, 49 group-selection openings in three size classes were created in 2003 with a biological legacy tree retained in the center of each opening. Twenty reference sites, managed using single-tree selection, were also analyzed for comparison. The specific goals of the project were to: 1) determine the fate and persistence of the openings and legacy trees 2) assess the understory response of the group-selection openings versus the single-tree selection reference sites, and 3) evaluate the spatial patterns of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) in the group-selection openings. The results from 8-9 years post-study implementation and the changes that have occurred between 2004/5 and 2011/12 are discussed. The alternative regeneration technique developed and assessed in this study has the potential to enrich biodiversity in a range of forest types. Projected group-selection opening persistence rates ranged from 41-91 years. Openings from 500-1500 m2 are predicted to persist long enough for mid-tolerant tree recruitment. The legacy trees responded well to release and experienced a low mortality rate. Yellow birch (the primary shade mid-tolerant tree in the study area) densities increased with opening size. Maples surpassed all other species in abundance. In the sapling layer, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) was 2 to over 300 times more abundant in the group-selection openings and 2 to 3 times more abundant in the references sites than all other species present. Red maple (Acer rubrum L.) was the second most abundant species present in the openings and reference sites. Spatial patterns of yellow birch and eastern hemlock in the openings were mostly aggregated. The southern edges of the largest openings contained the highest magnitude of yellow birch and eastern hemlock per unit area. Continued monitoring and additional treatments will likely be necessary in order to ensure underrepresented species successfully reach maturity.

Patch selection by wintering white-tailed deer : consequences for eastern hemlock regeneration at local and landscape scales

Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) is a highly shade-tolerant, late-successional, and long-lived conifer species found throughout eastern North America. It is most often found in pure or nearly pure stands, because highly acidic and nutrient poor forest floor conditions are thought to favor T. canadensis regeneration while simultaneously limiting the establishment of some hardwood species with greater nutrient requirements. Once a common species, T. canadensis is currently experiencing widescale declines across its range. The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is decimating the population across its eastern distribution. Across the Upper Great Lakes region, where the adelgid is currently being held at bay by cold winter temperatures, T. canadensis has been experiencing failures in regeneration attributed, in part, to herbivory by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Deer utilize T. canadensis stands as winter habitat in areas of high snow depth. Tsuga canadensis, once a major component of these forests, currently exists at just a fraction of its pre-settlement abundance due to historic logging and contemporary forest management practices, and what remains is found in small remnant patches surrounded by second- and third-growth deciduous forests. The deer population across the region, however, is likely double that of pre-European settlement times. In this dissertation I explore the relationship between white-tailed deer use of T. canadensis as winter habitat and the effect this use is having on regeneration and forest succession. For this research I quantified stand composition and structure and abiotic variables of elevation and snow depth in 39 randomly selected T. canadensis stands from across the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. I also quantified composition and the configuration of the landscapes surrounding these stands. I measured relative deer use of T. canadensis stands as pellet group piles deposited in each stand during each of three consecutive winters, 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. The results of this research suggest that deer use of T. canadensis stands as winter habitat is influenced primarily by snow depth, elevation, and the composition and configuration of the greater landscapes surrounding these stands. Specifically, stands with more heterogeneous landscapes surrounding them (i.e., a patchy mosaic of conifer, deciduous, and open cover) had higher relative deer use than stands surrounded by homogenous deciduous forest cover. Additionally, the intensity of use and the number of stands used was greater in years with higher average snow depth. Tsuga canadensis regeneration in these stands was negatively associated with deer use and Acer saccharum (sugar maple) basal area. Of the 39 stands, 17 and 22 stands had no T. canadensis regeneration in small and large sapling categories, respectively. Acer saccharum was the most common understory tree species, and the importance of A. saccharum in the understory (stems < 10 cm dbh) of the stands was positively associated with overstory A. saccharum dominance. Tsuga canadensis establishment was associated with high-decay coarse woody debris and moss, and deciduous leaf litter inputs in these stands may be limiting access to these important microsites. Furthermore, A. saccharum is more tolerant to the effects of deer herbivory than T. canadensis, giving A. saccharum a competitive advantage in stands being utilized as winter habitat by deer. My research suggests that limited microsite availability, in conjunction with deer herbivory, may be leading to an erosion in T. canadensis patch stability and an altered successional trajectory toward one of A. saccharum dominance, an alternately stable climax species.

Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

Evaluating Karner Blue Butterfly (Lycaeides Melissa Samuelis Nabokov) Habitat Selection in the State of Wisconsin, USA

The federally endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis Nabokov) persists in rare oak/pine grassland communities spanning across the Great Lakes region, relying on host plant wild blue lupine (Lupinus perennis). Conservation efforts since 1992 have led to the development of several programs that restore and monitor habitat. This study aims to evaluate Karner blue habitat selection in the state of Wisconsin and develop high-resolution tools for use in conservation efforts. Spatial predictive models developed during this study accurately predicted potential habitat across state properties based on soils and canopy cover, and identified ~51-100% of Karner blue occurrences based on lupine and shrub/tree cover, and focal nectar plant abundance. When evaluated relative to American bison (Bison bison), Karner blues and lupine were more likely to occur in areas of low disturbance, but aggregated where bison were recently present in areas of moderate/high disturbance. Lupine C:N ratio increased relative to cover of shrubs/trees and focal nectar plant abundance and decreased relative to cover of groundlitter. Karner blue density increased with lupine C:N ratio, decreased with nitrogen content, and was not related to phenolic levels. We strongly suggest that areas of different soil textures must be managed differently and that maintenance techniques should generate a mix of shrubs/tree cover (10-45%), groundlitter cover (~10-40%), >5% cover of lupine, and establish an abundance of focal nectar plants. This study provides unique tools for use in conservation and should aid in focusing management efforts and recovery of this species.