EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

WATER USE AND SYSTEM RELIABILITY UNDER DIESELGENERATOR AND SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWERED PUMPING SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY OF SOLLA TOGO

Access to improved potable water sources is recognized as one of the key factors in improving health and alleviating global poverty. In recently years, substantial investments have been made internationally in potable water infrastructure projects, allowing 2.3 billion people to gain access to potable water from 1990-2012. One such project was planned and installed in Solla, Togo, a rural village in the northern part of the country, from 2010-2012. Ethnographic studies revealed that, while the community has access to potable water, an estimated 45% of the village’s 1500 residents still rely on unprotected sources for drinking and cooking. Additionally, inequality in system use based on income level was revealed, with the higher income groups accessing the system more regularly than lower income groups. Cost, as well as the availability of cheaper sources, was identified as the main deterrent from using the new water distribution system. A new water-pricing scheme is investigated here with the intention of making the system accessible to a greater percentage of the population. Since 2012, a village-level water committee has been responsible for operations and maintenance (O&M), fulfilling the community management model that is recommended by many development theorists in order to create sustainable projects. The water committee received post-construction support, mostly in the form of technical support during system breakdowns, from the Togolese Ministry of Water and Sanitation (MWSVH). While this support has been valuable in maintaining a functional water supply system in Solla, the water committee still has managerial challenges, particularly with billing and fee collection. As a result, the water committee has only received 2% - 25% of the fees owed at each private connection and public tap stand, making their finances vulnerable when future repairs and capital replacements are necessary. A new management structure is proposed by the MWSVH that will pay utilities workers a wage and will hire an accountant in order to improve the local management and increase revenue. This proposal is analyzed under the new water pricing schemes that are presented. Initially, the rural water supply system was powered by a diesel-generator, but in 2013, a solar photo-voltaic power supply was installed. The new system proved a fiscal improvement for the village water committee, since it drastically reduced their annual O&M costs. However, the new system pumps a smaller volume of water on a daily basis and did not meet the community’s water needs during the dry season of 2014. A hydraulic network model was developed to investigate the system’s reliability under diesel-generator (DGPS) and solar photovoltaic (PVPS) power supplies. Additionally, a new system layout is proposed for the PVPS that allows pumping directly into the distribution line, circumventing the high head associated with pumping solely to the storage tank. It was determined that this new layout would allow for a greater volume of water to be provided to the demand points over the course of a day, meeting a greater fraction of the demand than with the current layout.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.