PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

Reaction Control in Quiescent Systems of Free-Radical Retrograde-Precipitation Polymerization

Free-radical retrograde-precipitation polymerization, FRRPP in short, is a novel polymerization process discovered by Dr. Gerard Caneba in the late 1980s. The current study is aimed at gaining a better understanding of the reaction mechanism of the FRRPP and its thermodynamically-driven features that are predominant in controlling the chain reaction. A previously developed mathematical model to represent free radical polymerization kinetics was used to simulate a classic bulk polymerization system from the literature. Unlike other existing models, such a sparse-matrix-based representation allows one to explicitly accommodate the chain length dependent kinetic parameters. Extrapolating from the past results, mixing was experimentally shown to be exerting a significant influence on reaction control in FRRPP systems. Mixing alone drives the otherwise severely diffusion-controlled reaction propagation in phase-separated polymer domains. Therefore, in a quiescent system, in the absence of mixing, it is possible to retard the growth of phase-separated domains, thus producing isolated polymer nanoparticles (globules). Such a diffusion-controlled, self-limiting phenomenon of chain growth was also observed using time-resolved small angle x-ray scattering studies of reaction kinetics in quiescent systems of FRRPP. Combining the concept of self-limiting chain growth in quiescent FRRPP systems with spatioselective reaction initiation of lithography, microgel structures were synthesized in a single step, without the use of molds or additives. Hard x-rays from the bending magnet radiation of a synchrotron were used as an initiation source, instead of the more statistally-oriented chemical initiators. Such a spatially-defined reaction was shown to be self-limiting to the irradiated regions following a polymerization-induced self-assembly phenomenon. The pattern transfer aspects of this technique were, therefore, studied in the FRRP polymerization of N-isopropylacrylamide (NIPAm) and methacrylic acid (MAA), a thermoreversible and ionic hydrogel, respectively. Reaction temperature increases the contrast between the exposed and unexposed zones of the formed microgels, while the irradiation dose is directly proportional to the extent of phase separation. The response of Poly (NIPAm) microgels prepared from the technique described in this study was also characterized by small angle neutron scattering.