Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China

A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.

Dynamic modeling of active regeneration in catalyzed and non-catalyzed diesel particulate filters

Particulate matter (PM) emissions standards set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have become increasingly stringent over the years. The EPA regulation for PM in heavy duty diesel engines has been reduced to 0.01 g/bhp-hr for the year 2010. Heavy duty diesel engines make use of an aftertreatment filtration device, the Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF). DPFs are highly efficient in filtering PM (known as soot) and are an integral part of 2010 heavy duty diesel aftertreatment system. PM is accumulated in the DPF as the exhaust gas flows through it. This PM needs to be removed by oxidation periodically for the efficient functioning of the filter. This oxidation process is also known as regeneration. There are 2 types of regeneration processes, namely active regeneration (oxidation of PM by external means) and passive oxidation (oxidation of PM by internal means). Active regeneration occurs typically in high temperature regions, about 500 - 600 °C, which is much higher than normal diesel exhaust temperatures. Thus, the exhaust temperature has to be raised with the help of external devices like a Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) or a fuel burner. The O2 oxidizes PM producing CO2 as oxidation product. In passive oxidation, one way of regeneration is by the use of NO2. NO2 oxidizes the PM producing NO and CO2 as oxidation products. The passive oxidation process occurs at lower temperatures (200 - 400 °C) in comparison to the active regeneration temperatures. Generally, DPF substrate walls are washcoated with catalyst material to speed up the rate of PM oxidation. The catalyst washcoat is observed to increase the rate of PM oxidation. The goal of this research is to develop a simple mathematical model to simulate the PM depletion during the active regeneration process in a DPF (catalyzed and non-catalyzed). A simple, zero-dimensional kinetic model was developed in MATLAB. Experimental data required for calibration was obtained by active regeneration experiments performed on PM loaded mini DPFs in an automated flow reactor. The DPFs were loaded with PM from the exhaust of a commercial heavy duty diesel engine. The model was calibrated to the data obtained from active regeneration experiments. Numerical gradient based optimization techniques were used to estimate the kinetic parameters of the model.

SURFACTANT-OIL INTERACTIONS: FOAMING & TOXICITY

Surfactants find large applications in detergents, paints, coatings, food and pharmaceutical industries. Other than that, much focused work has been carried out in oil recovery in petroleum industries and raw material extraction in mining industries. This is because of their unique structure and ability to simultaneously adhere to materials which are both structurally and physically different. The current thesis focuses on interactions of oil with different commercially available and laboratory synthesized surfactants in terms of characteristics such as foaming, ultrasound exposure and toxicity. Foaming is one important characteristic of surfactants that is widely utilized for oil recovery purposes. Researchers utilize surfactants' special ability to provide foam stability to for more efficient oil herding capability. The foam stability and foam volumes are calculated using static foam height tests. Further dispersion or oil in water emulsion formation is observed using ultrasound sources. As described earlier surfactants are not only used as foams for oil displacement, but they are also used for dispersion purposes where they are key components of dispersant formulations. During such operations, especially in sea conditions where adverse effects on aquatic life are a concern, toxicity of chemicals used becomes an important factor. Our toxicity testing experiments involves different surfactants, solvents and crude oil combinations through exposure to special light luminescent bacteria. The decrease in light intensity of the exposed bacteria is related to toxic effects of the samples.

TIME LAPSE SEISMIC OBSERVATIONS AND EFFECTS OF RESERVOIR COMPRESSIBILITY AT TEAL SOUTH OIL FIELD

One of the original ocean-bottom time-lapse seismic studies was performed at the Teal South oil field in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1990’s. This work reexamines some aspects of previous work using modern analysis techniques to provide improved quantitative interpretations. Using three-dimensional volume visualization of legacy data and the two phases of post-production time-lapse data, I provide additional insight into the fluid migration pathways and the pressure communication between different reservoirs, separated by faults. This work supports a conclusion from previous studies that production from one reservoir caused regional pressure decline that in turn resulted in liberation of gas from multiple surrounding unproduced reservoirs. I also provide an explanation for unusual time-lapse changes in amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) data related to the compaction of the producing reservoir which, in turn, changed an isotropic medium to an anisotropic medium. In the first part of this work, I examine regional changes in seismic response due to the production of oil and gas from one reservoir. The previous studies primarily used two post-production ocean-bottom surveys (Phase I and Phase II), and not the legacy streamer data, due to the unavailability of legacy prestack data and very different acquisition parameters. In order to incorporate the legacy data in the present study, all three poststack data sets were cross-equalized and examined using instantaneous amplitude and energy volumes. This approach appears quite effective and helps to suppress changes unrelated to production while emphasizing those large-amplitude changes that are related to production in this noisy (by current standards) suite of data. I examine the multiple data sets first by using the instantaneous amplitude and energy attributes, and then also examine specific apparent time-lapse changes through direct comparisons of seismic traces. In so doing, I identify time-delays that, when corrected for, indicate water encroachment at the base of the producing reservoir. I also identify specific sites of leakage from various unproduced reservoirs, the result of regional pressure blowdown as explained in previous studies; those earlier studies, however, were unable to identify direct evidence of fluid movement. Of particular interest is the identification of one site where oil apparently leaked from one reservoir into a “new” reservoir that did not originally contain oil, but was ideally suited as a trap for fluids leaking from the neighboring spill-point. With continued pressure drop, oil in the new reservoir increased as more oil entered into the reservoir and expanded, liberating gas from solution. Because of the limited volume available for oil and gas in that temporary trap, oil and gas also escaped from it into the surrounding formation. I also note that some of the reservoirs demonstrate time-lapse changes only in the “gas cap” and not in the oil zone, even though gas must be coming out of solution everywhere in the reservoir. This is explained by interplay between pore-fluid modulus reduction by gas saturation decrease and dry-frame modulus increase by frame stiffening. In the second part of this work, I examine various rock-physics models in an attempt to quantitatively account for frame-stiffening that results from reduced pore-fluid pressure in the producing reservoir, searching for a model that would predict the unusual AVO features observed in the time-lapse prestack and stacked data at Teal South. While several rock-physics models are successful at predicting the time-lapse response for initial production, most fail to match the observations for continued production between Phase I and Phase II. Because the reservoir was initially overpressured and unconsolidated, reservoir compaction was likely significant, and is probably accomplished largely by uniaxial strain in the vertical direction; this implies that an anisotropic model may be required. Using Walton’s model for anisotropic unconsolidated sand, I successfully model the time-lapse changes for all phases of production. This observation may be of interest for application to other unconsolidated overpressured reservoirs under production.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECOCAR 3 PROPOSAL AND GUIDELINES FOR MODELING AND DESIGN IN YEAR ONE OF ECOCAR 3

This report summarizes the work done for the Vehicle Powertrain Modeling and Design Problem Proposal portion of the EcoCAR3 proposal as specified in the Request for Proposal from Argonne National Laboratory. The results of the modeling exercises presented in the proposal showed that: An average conventional vehicle powered by a combustion engine could not meet the energy consumption target when the engine was sized to meet the acceleration target, due the relatively low thermal efficiency of the spark ignition engine. A battery electric vehicle could not meet the required range target of 320 km while keeping the vehicle weight below the gross vehicle weight rating of 2000 kg. This was due to the low energy density of the batteries which necessitated a large, and heavy, battery pack to provide enough energy to meet the range target. A series hybrid electric vehicle has the potential to meet the acceleration and energy consumption parameters when the components are optimally sized. A parallel hybrid electric vehicle has less energy conversion losses than a series hybrid electric vehicle which results in greater overall efficiency, lower energy consumption, and less emissions. For EcoCAR3, Michigan Tech proposes to develop a plug-in parallel hybrid vehicle (PPHEV) powered by a small Diesel engine operating on B20 Bio-Diesel fuel. This architecture was chosen over other options due to its compact design, lower cost, and its ability to provide performance levels and energy efficiency that meet or exceed the design targets. While this powertrain configuration requires a more complex control system and strategy than others, the student engineering team at Michigan Tech has significant recent experience with this architecture and has confidence that it will perform well in the events planned for the EcoCAR3 competition.

ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF THE BAKKEN, NORTH DAKOTA UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS BASED ON A TYPICAL WELL PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Increases in oil prices after the economic recession have been surprising for domestic oil production in the United States since the beginning of 2009. Not only did the conventional oil extraction increase, but unconventional oil production and exploration also improved greatly with the favorable economic conditions. This favorable economy encourages companies to invest in new reservoirs and technological developments. Recently, enhanced drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have been supporting the domestic economy by way of unconventional shale and tight oil from various U.S. locations. One of the main contributors to this oil boom is the unconventional oil production from the North Dakota Bakken field. Horizontal drilling has increased oil production in the Bakken field, but the economic issues of unconventional oil extraction are still debatable due to volatile oil prices, high decline rates of production, a limited production period, high production costs, and lack of transportation. The economic profitability and viability of the unconventional oil play in the North Dakota Bakken was tested with an economic analysis of average Bakken unconventional well features. Scenario analysis demonstrated that a typical North Dakota Bakken unconventional oil well is profitable and viable as shown by three financial metrics; net present value, internal rate of return, and break-even prices.

VALIDATION OF A 'DISPLACEMENT TOMOGRAPHY' INVERSION METHOD FOR MODELING SHEET INTRUSIONS

The study of volcano deformation data can provide information on magma processes and help assess the potential for future eruptions. In employing inverse deformation modeling on these data, we attempt to characterize the geometry, location and volume/pressure change of a deformation source. Techniques currently used to model sheet intrusions (e.g., dikes and sills) often require significant a priori assumptions about source geometry and can require testing a large number of parameters. Moreover, surface deformations are a non-linear function of the source geometry and location. This requires the use of Monte Carlo inversion techniques which leads to long computation times. Recently, ‘displacement tomography’ models have been used to characterize magma reservoirs by inverting source deformation data for volume changes using a grid of point sources in the subsurface. The computations involved in these models are less intensive as no assumptions are made on the source geometry and location, and the relationship between the point sources and the surface deformation is linear. In this project, seeking a less computationally intensive technique for fracture sources, we tested if this displacement tomography method for reservoirs could be used for sheet intrusions. We began by simulating the opening of three synthetic dikes of known geometry and location using an established deformation model for fracture sources. We then sought to reproduce the displacements and volume changes undergone by the fractures using the sources employed in the tomography methodology. Results of this validation indicate the volumetric point sources are not appropriate for locating fracture sources, however they may provide useful qualitative information on volume changes occurring in the surrounding rock, and therefore indirectly indicate the source location.

ADVANCED COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF SMART WIND-TURBINE BLADES

Implementation of stable aeroelastic models with the ability to capture the complex features of Multi concept smartblades is a prime step in reducing the uncertainties that come along with blade dynamics. The numerical simulations of fluid structure interaction can thus be used to test a realistic scenarios comprising of full-scale blades at a reasonably low computational cost. A code which was a combination of two advanced numerical models was designed and was run with the help of paralell HPC supercomputer platform. The first model was based on a variation of dimensional reduction technique proposed by Hodges and Yu. This model was the one to record the structural response of heterogenous composite blades. This technique reduces the geometrical complexities of the heterogenous blade section into a stiffness matrix for an equivalent beam. This derived equivalent 1-D strain energy matrix is similar to the actual 3-D strain energy matrix in an asymptotic sense. As this 1-D matrix helps in accurately modeling the blade structure as a 1-D finite element problem, this substantially redues the computational effort and subsequently the computational cost that are required to model the structural dynamics at each step. Second model comprises of implementation of the Blade Element Momentum Theory. In this approach we map all the velocities and the forces with the help of orthogonal matrices that help in capturing the large deformations and the effects of rotations in calculating the aerodynamic forces. This ultimately helps us to take into account the complex flexo torsional deformations. In this thesis we have succesfully tested these computayinal tools developed by MTU’s research team lead by for the aero elastic analysis of wind-turbine blades. The validation in this thesis is majorly based on several experiments done on NREL-5MW blade, as this is widely accepted as a benchmark blade in the wind industry. Along with the use of this innovative model the internal blade structure was also changed to add up to the existing benefits of the already advanced numerical models.