Spatial and temporal patterns in ungulate-ecosystem interactions

Ungulates are important components of a variety of ecosystems worldwide. This dissertation integrates aspects of ungulate and forest ecology to increase our understanding of how they work together in ways that are of interest to natural resource managers, educators, and those who are simply curious about nature. Although animal ecology and ecosystem ecology are often studied separately, one of the general goals of this dissertation is to examine how they interact across spatial and temporal scales. Forest ecosystems are heterogeneous across a range of scales. Spatial and temporal habitat use patterns of forest ungulates tend to be congregated in patches where food and/or cover are readily available. Ungulates interact with ecosystem processes by selectively foraging on plants and excreting waste products in concentrated patches. Positive feedbacks may develop where these activities increase the value of habitat through soil fertilization or the alteration of plant chemistry and architecture. Heterogeneity in ecosystem processes and plant community structure, observed at both stand and local scales, may be the integrated outcome of feedbacks between ungulate behavior and abiotic resource gradients. The first chapter of this dissertation briefly discusses pertinent background information on ungulate ecology, with a focus on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Upper Great Lakes region and moose (Alces acles) in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA. The second chapter demonstrates why ecological context is important for studying ungulate ecology in forest ecosystems. Excluding deer from eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) stands, which deer use primarily as winter cover, resulted in less spatial complexity in soil reactive nitrogen and greater complexity in diffuse light compared to unfenced stands. The spatial patterning of herbaceous-layer cover was more similar to nitrogen where deer were present, and was a combination of nitrogen and light within deer exclosures. This relationship depends on the seasonal timing of deer habitat use because deer fertilize the soil during winter, but leave during the growing season. The third chapter draws upon an eight-year, 39-stand data set of deer fecal pellet counts in hemlock stands to estimate the amount of nitrogen that deer are depositing in hemlock stands each winter. In stands of high winter deer use, deer-excreted nitrogen inputs consistently exceeded those of atmospheric deposition at the stand scale. At the neighborhood scale, deer-excreted nitrogen was often in excess of atmospheric deposition due to the patchy distribution of deer habitat use. Spatial patterns in habitat use were consistent over the eight-year study at both stand and neighborhood scales. The fourth chapter explores how foraging selectivity by moose interacts with an abiotic resource gradient to influence forest structure and composition. Soil depth on Isle Royale varies from east to west according to glacial history. Fir saplings growing in deeper soils on the west side are generally more palatable forage for moose (lower foliar C:N) than those growing in shallower soils on the east side. Therefore, saplings growing in better conditions are less likely to reach the canopy due to moose browsing, and fir is a smaller overstory component on the west side. Lastly, chapter five focuses on issues surrounding eastern hemlock regeneration failure, which is a habitat type that is important to many wildlife species. Increasing hemlock on the landscape is complicated by several factors including disturbance regime and climate change, in addition to the influence of deer.

Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

Landscape and forest structure at moose mortality sites on Isle Royale National Park. A LiDAR based assessment

Landscape structure and heterogeneity play a potentially important, but little understood role in predator-prey interactions and behaviourally-mediated habitat selection. For example, habitat complexity may either reduce or enhance the efficiency of a predator's efforts to search, track, capture, kill and consume prey. For prey, structural heterogeneity may affect predator detection, avoidance and defense, escape tactics, and the ability to exploit refuges. This study, investigates whether and how vegetation and topographic structure influence the spatial patterns and distribution of moose (Alces alces) mortality due to predation and malnutrition at the local and landscape levels on Isle Royale National Park. 230 locations where wolves (Canis lupus) killed moose during the winters between 2002 and 2010, and 182 moose starvation death sites for the period 1996-2010, were selected from the extensive Isle Royale Wolf-Moose Project carcass database. A variety of LiDAR-derived metrics were generated and used in an algorithm model (Random Forest) to identify, characterize, and classify three-dimensional variables significant to each of the mortality classes. Furthermore, spatial models to predict and assess the likelihood at the landscape scale of moose mortality were developed. This research found that the patterns of moose mortality by predation and malnutrition across the landscape are non-random, have a high degree of spatial variability, and that both mechanisms operate in contexts of comparable physiographic and vegetation structure. Wolf winter hunting locations on Isle Royale are more likely to be a result of its prey habitat selection, although they seem to prioritize the overall areas with higher moose density in the winter. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the distribution of moose mortality by predation is habitat-specific to moose, and not to wolves. In addition, moose sex, age, and health condition also affect mortality site selection, as revealed by subtle differences between sites in vegetation heights, vegetation density, and topography. Vegetation density in particular appears to differentiate mortality locations for distinct classes of moose. The results also emphasize the significance of fine-scale landscape and habitat features when addressing predator-prey interactions. These finer scale findings would be easily missed if analyses were limited to the broader landscape scale alone.

Promoting Biodiversity in Forest Ecosystems Using Ecological Forestry

A subset of forest management techniques, termed ecological forestry, have been developed in order to produce timber and maintain the ecological integrity of forest communities through practices that more closely mirror natural disturbance regimes. Even though alternative methods have been described and tested, these approaches still need to be established and analyzed in a variety of geographic regions in order to calibrate and measure effectiveness across different forest types. The primary objective of this research project was to assess whether group selection combined with legacy-tree retention could enhance mid-tolerant tree recruitment in a late-successional northern hardwood forest. In order to evaluate a novel alternative regeneration technique, 49 group-selection openings in three size classes were created in 2003 with a biological legacy tree retained in the center of each opening. Twenty reference sites, managed using single-tree selection, were also analyzed for comparison. The specific goals of the project were to: 1) determine the fate and persistence of the openings and legacy trees 2) assess the understory response of the group-selection openings versus the single-tree selection reference sites, and 3) evaluate the spatial patterns of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) in the group-selection openings. The results from 8-9 years post-study implementation and the changes that have occurred between 2004/5 and 2011/12 are discussed. The alternative regeneration technique developed and assessed in this study has the potential to enrich biodiversity in a range of forest types. Projected group-selection opening persistence rates ranged from 41-91 years. Openings from 500-1500 m2 are predicted to persist long enough for mid-tolerant tree recruitment. The legacy trees responded well to release and experienced a low mortality rate. Yellow birch (the primary shade mid-tolerant tree in the study area) densities increased with opening size. Maples surpassed all other species in abundance. In the sapling layer, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) was 2 to over 300 times more abundant in the group-selection openings and 2 to 3 times more abundant in the references sites than all other species present. Red maple (Acer rubrum L.) was the second most abundant species present in the openings and reference sites. Spatial patterns of yellow birch and eastern hemlock in the openings were mostly aggregated. The southern edges of the largest openings contained the highest magnitude of yellow birch and eastern hemlock per unit area. Continued monitoring and additional treatments will likely be necessary in order to ensure underrepresented species successfully reach maturity.

Plant-mediated effects on microbial diversity in mesocosms of an oligotrophic bog

Globally, peatlands occupy a small portion of terrestrial land area but contain up to one-third of all soil organic carbon. This carbon pool is vulnerable to increased decomposition under projected climate change scenarios but little is known about how plant functional groups will influence microbial communities responsible for regulating carbon cycling processes. Here we examined initial shifts in microbial community structure within two sampling depths under plant functional group manipulations in mesocosms of an oligotrophic bog. Microbial community composition for bacteria and archaea was characterized using targeted 16S rRNA Illumina gene sequencing. We found statistically distinct spatial patterns between the more shallow 10-20 cm sampling depth and the deeper 30-40 cm depth. Significant effects by plant functional groups were found only within the 10-20 cm depth, indicating plant-mediated microbial community shifts respond more quickly near the peat surface. Specifically, the relative abundance of Acidobacteria decreased under ericaceous shrub treatments in the 10-20 cm depth and was replaced by increased abundance of Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. In contrast, the sedge rhizosphere continued to be dominated by Acidobacteria but also promoted an increase in the relative recovery of Alphaproteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia. These initial results suggest microbial communities under ericaceous shrubs may be limited by anaerobic soil conditions accompanying high water table conditions, while sedge aerenchyma may be promoting aerobic taxa in the upper peat rhizosphere regardless of ambient soil oxygen limitations.

The spatial distribution of Copernicia alba (Morong) in the district of Bahia Negra, Paraguay

The Humid Chaco of Northeast Paraguay harbors monoculture palm savannas in which Copernicia alba is the only dominant overstory species. The study’s objective was to provide the complete spatial distribution of a simple ecosystem lacking confounding factors of overstory competition and changes in slope. Palms within six, 50 x 50m plots were marked by their GPS location and measured for dbh and total stem height. The spatial distribution was individually analyzed for each plot at the local scale up to 12 m using Ripley’s K test. For the total population including juvenile and adult plants, the sample plots contained both random and clustered distribution patterns. In each of the six plots, the juvenile populations exhibited more clustered patterns than the adult population of each plot.

Evaluating stress patterns for Plio-Quaternary brittle deformation along the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro fault zone, Central Andes

Understanding the geometry and kinematics of the major structures of an orogen is important to elucidate its style of deformation, as well as its tectonic evolution. We describe the temporal and spatial changes in the state of stress of the trans-orogen area of the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro (COT) Fault Zone in the Central Andes, at about 24°S within the northern portion of the Puna Plateau between the Argentina-Chile border. The importance of the COT derives principally from the Quaternary-Holocene activity recognized on some segments, which may shed new light on its possible control on Quaternary volcanism and on the seismic hazard evaluation of the area. Field geological surveys along with kinematic analysis and numerical inversion of ∼140 new fault-slip measurements have revealed that this portion of the COT zone, previously considered a continuous, long-lived lineament, in reality has been subjected to three different kinematic regimes: 1) a Miocene transpressional phase with the maximum principal stress (σ1) chiefly trending NNE-SSW; 2) an extensional phase that started by 9 Ma, with a horizontal NW-SE-striking minimum principal stress (σ3) – permutations between σ2 and σ3 axes have been recognized at two sites – and 3) a left-lateral strike-slip phase with a horizontal ∼E-W &sigma1 and ∼N-S σ3 dating to the Late Pliocene-Quaternary. Spatially, in the Quaternary, the left-lateral component decreases toward the westernmost tip of the COT, where it transitions to extension; this produced to a N-S horst and graben structure. Hence, even if transcurrence is still active in the eastern portion of the COT, as focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes indicate, our study demonstrates that extension is becoming the predominant structural style of deformation, at least in the western region. These major temporal and spatial changes in the tectonic regimes are attributed in part to changes in the magnitude of the boundary forces due to subduction processes. The overall orogen-perpendicular extension might be the result of vertical stress larger than both the horizontal stresses induced by gravitational effect of a thickened crust.