FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.

Sediment yield reduction in an agricultural watershed

With proper application of Best Management Practices (BMPs), the impact from the sediment to the water bodies could be minimized. However, finding the optimal allocation of BMP can be difficult, since there are numerous possible options. Also, economics plays an important role in BMP affordability and, therefore, the number of BMPs able to be placed in a given budget year. In this study, two methodologies are presented to determine the optimal cost-effective BMP allocation, by coupling a watershed-level model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with two different methods, targeting and a multi-objective genetic algorithm (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II, NSGA-II). For demonstration, these two methodologies were applied to an agriculture-dominant watershed located in Lower Michigan to find the optimal allocation of filter strips and grassed waterways. For targeting, three different criteria were investigated for sediment yield minimization, during the process of which it was found that the grassed waterways near the watershed outlet reduced the watershed outlet sediment yield the most under this study condition, and cost minimization was also included as a second objective during the cost-effective BMP allocation selection. NSGA-II was used to find the optimal BMP allocation for both sediment yield reduction and cost minimization. By comparing the results and computational time of both methodologies, targeting was determined to be a better method for finding optimal cost-effective BMP allocation under this study condition, since it provided more than 13 times the amount of solutions with better fitness for the objective functions while using less than one eighth of the SWAT computational time than the NSGA-II with 150 generations did.

Assessment of water and sanitation infrastructure at primary schools in Rakai District, Uganda

“Addressing water problems will help improve sanitation.” This relationship identified by a primary school teacher in Rakai District, Uganda, was a key component in understanding how water and sanitation technologies interact and how identified successes, challenges, and improvements would enhance schools’ water and sanitation condition. In this study, researchers and Ugandan counterparts visited 49 primary schools in Rakai District to assess the existing water and sanitation infrastructure of government and private schools. Researchers were specifically interested in learning which technologies were being used and why they were working or not. Through the development of a unique water and sanitation assessment tool, schools have been placed in to four relationship quadrants to rate existing water and latrine use standards. Recommendations including improved rainwater use and sanitation through composting have been offered to schools sampled.

An Ecological and Chemical Assessment of Copper Contaminated Streams in the Keweenaw Peninsula

The copper mining boom in Michigan's Upper Peninsula ended in the mid-1960s, but the historical mining still affects the region to this day. Earlier studies conducted in the Keweenaw have shown that trace metals in the sediments negatively affect benthic macroinvertebrate populations. However, because the concentrations of trace metals that are observed to be toxic often differ significantly between the laboratory and the environment, a better method for determining toxic levels of trace metals in the natural environment is desirable in order to establish surface water quality guidelines that effectively protect aquatic life. There were four research objectives for this research project. First, to determine if trace-level concentrations of copper can result in detectable ecological impacts even in the presence of high dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Second, to determine if there is a "safe" concentration of total dissolved copper below which there is little to no ecological impairment. Third, to establish which streams in the Keweenaw Peninsula have been most impacted by elevated levels of total dissolved copper. Fourth, to use this information to evaluate revisions to the water quality criterion for copper that were recently proposed by the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ). In order to collect water quality and macroinvertebrate data, two sampling surveys of approximately 50 streams were completed in the spring and summer of 2012. Our findings demonstrate that negative ecological impacts can be detected even in the presence of high concentrations of DOC. The majority of surveyed streams showed evidence of total dissolved copper concentrations that were elevated above background levels. Our findings suggest that there are detectable negative impacts below the current water quality standard for copper in many Keweenaw streams. The diversity of benthic macroinvertebrates and the number of species present has been reduced as a result of exposure to copper. Additionally, the multimetric approach used by MDEQ is unable to detect copper impairment in local streams due to the use of several insensitive metrics. The proposed changes to the copper criterion would increase the amount of total dissolved copper allowable despite the fact that approximately 25% of streams sampled have aquatic chemistries that would leave them vulnerable to high levels of copper ions.

A BACKING DEVICE BASED ON AN EMBEDDED STIFFENER AND RETRACTABLE INSERTION TOOL FOR THIN-FILM COCHLEAR ARRAYS

Intracochlear trauma from surgical insertion of bulky electrode arrays and inadequate pitch perception are areas of concern with current hand-assembled commercial cochlear implants. Parylene thin-film arrays with higher electrode densities and lower profiles are a potential solution, but lack rigidity and hence depend on manually fabricated permanently attached polyethylene terephthalate (PET) tubing based bulky backing devices. As a solution, we investigated a new backing device with two sub-systems. The first sub-system is a thin poly(lactic acid) (PLA) stiffener that will be embedded in the parylene array. The second sub-system is an attaching and detaching mechanism, utilizing a poly(N-vinylpyrrolidone)-block-poly(d,l-lactide) (PVP-b-PDLLA) copolymer-based biodegradable and water soluble adhesive, that will help to retract the PET insertion tool after implantation. As a proof-of-concept of sub-system one, a microfabrication process for patterning PLA stiffeners embedded in parylene has been developed. Conventional hotembossing, mechanical micromachining, and standard cleanroom processes were integrated for patterning fully released and discrete stiffeners coated with parylene. The released embedded stiffeners were thermoformed to demonstrate that imparting perimodiolar shapes to stiffener-embedded arrays will be possible. The developed process when integrated with the array fabrication process will allow fabrication of stiffener-embedded arrays in a single process. As a proof-of-concept of sub-system two, the feasibility of the attaching and detaching mechanism was demonstrated by adhering 1x and 1.5x scale PET tube-based insertion tools and PLA stiffeners embedded in parylene using the copolymer adhesive. The attached devices survived qualitative adhesion tests, thermoforming, and flexing. The viability of the detaching mechanism was tested by aging the assemblies in-vitro in phosphate buffer solution. The average detachment times, 2.6 minutes and 10 minutes for 1x and 1.5x scale devices respectively, were found to be clinically relevant with respect to the reported array insertion times during surgical implantation. Eventually, the stiffener-embedded arrays would not need to be permanently attached to current insertion tools which are left behind after implantation and congest the cochlear scala tympani chamber. Finally, a simulation-based approach for accelerated failure analysis of PLA stiffeners and characterization of PVP-b-PDLLA copolymer adhesive has been explored. The residual functional life of embedded PLA stiffeners exposed to body-fluid and thereby subjected to degradation and erosion has been estimated by simulating PLA stiffeners with different parylene coating failure types and different PLA types for a given parylene coating failure type. For characterizing the PVP-b-PDLLA copolymer adhesive, several formulations of the copolymer adhesive were simulated and compared based on the insertion tool detachment times that were predicted from the dissolution, degradation, and erosion behavior of the simulated adhesive formulations. Results indicate that the simulation-based approaches could be used to reduce the total number of time consuming and expensive in-vitro tests that must be conducted.

Detecting changes in surface moisture and water table position with spectral changes in surface vegetation in northern peatlands

Due to warmer and drier conditions, wildland fire has been increasing in extent into peatland ecosystems during recent decades. As such, there is an increasing need for broadly applicable tools to detect surface peat moisture, in order to ascertain the susceptibility of peat burning, and the vulnerability of deep peat consumption in the event of a wildfire. In this thesis, a field portable spectroradiometer was used to measure surface reflectance of two Sphagnum moss dominated peatlands. Relationships were developed correlating spectral indices to surface moisture as well as water table position. Spectral convolutions were also applied to the high resolution spectra to represent spectral sensitivity of earth observing sensors. Band ratios previously used to monitor surface moisture with these sensors were assessed. Strong relationships to surface moisture and water table position are evident for both the narrowband indices as well as broadened indices. This study also found a dependence of certain spectral relationships on changes in vegetation cover by leveraging an experimental vegetation manipulation. Results indicate broadened indices employing the 1450-1650 nm region may be less stable under changing vegetation cover than those located in the 1200 nm region.

BEYOND ROOTS ALONE: NOVEL METHODOLOGIES FOR ANALYZING COMPLEX SOIL AND MINIRHIZOTRON IMAGERY USING IMAGE PROCESSING AND GIS TOOLS

Quantifying belowground dynamics is critical to our understanding of plant and ecosystem function and belowground carbon cycling, yet currently available tools for complex belowground image analyses are insufficient. We introduce novel techniques combining digital image processing tools and geographic information systems (GIS) analysis to permit semi-automated analysis of complex root and soil dynamics. We illustrate methodologies with imagery from microcosms, minirhizotrons, and a rhizotron, in upland and peatland soils. We provide guidelines for correct image capture, a method that automatically stitches together numerous minirhizotron images into one seamless image, and image analysis using image segmentation and classification in SPRING or change analysis in ArcMap. These methods facilitate spatial and temporal root and soil interaction studies, providing a framework to expand a more comprehensive understanding of belowground dynamics.