Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Topographic and meteorological influences on spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

Characterizing the spatial scaling and dynamics of convective precipitation in mountainous terrain and the development of downscaling methods to transfer precipitation fields from one scale to another is the overall motivation for this research. Substantial progress has been made on characterizing the space-time organization of Midwestern convective systems and tropical rainfall, which has led to the development of statistical/dynamical downscaling models. Space-time analysis and downscaling of orographic precipitation has received less attention due to the complexities of topographic influences. This study uses multiscale statistical analysis to investigate the spatial scaling of organized thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall and flooding in mountainous regions. Focus is placed on the eastern and western slopes of the Appalachian region and the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Parameter estimates are analyzed over time and attention is given to linking changes in the multiscale parameters with meteorological forcings and orographic influences on the rainfall. Influences of geographic regions and predominant orographic controls on trends in multiscale properties of precipitation are investigated. Spatial resolutions from 1 km to 50 km are considered. This range of spatial scales is needed to bridge typical scale gaps between distributed hydrologic models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and attempts to address the open research problem of scaling organized thunderstorms and convection in mountainous terrain down to 1-4 km scales.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of the Volcanics and Sediments of the Kenya Rift

New volumetric and mass flux estimates have been calculated for the Kenya Rift. Spatial and temporal histories for volcanic eruptions, lacustrine deposition, and hominin fossil sites are presented, aided by the compilation of a new digital geologic map. Distribution of volcanism over time indicates several periods of southward expansion followed by relative positional stasis. Volcanism occurs throughout the activated rift length, with no obvious abandonment as the rift system migrated. The main exception is a period of volcanic concentration around 10 Ma, when activity was constrained within 2° of the equator. Volumes derived from seismic data indicate a total volume of c. 310,000 km3 (2.47 x 1010 kg/yr ), which is significantly more than the map-derived volumes found here or published previously. Map-based estimates are likely affected by a bias against recognizing small volume events in the older record. Such events are, however, the main driver of erupted volume over the last 5 Ma. A technique developed here to counter this bias results in convergence of the two volume estimation techniques. Relative erupted composition over time is variable. Overall, the erupted material has a mafic to silicic ratio of 0.9:1. Basalts are distinctly more common in the Turkana region, which previously experienced Mesozoic rifting. Despite the near equal ratio of mafic to silicic products, the Kenya Rift otherwise fits the definition of a SLIP. It is proposed that the compositions would better fit the published definition if the Turkana region was not twice-rifted. Lacustrine sedimentation post-dates initial volcanism by about 5 million years, and follows the same volcanic trends, showing south and eastward migration over time. This sedimentation delay is likely related to timing of fault displacements. Evidence of hominin habitation is distinctly abundant in the northern and southern sections of the Kenya Rift, but there is an observed gap in the equatorial rift between 4 and 0.5 million years ago. After 0.5 Ma, sites appear to progress towards the equator. The pattern and timing of hominid site distributions suggests that the equatorial gap in habitation may be the result of active volcanic avoidance.