3 resultados para Simulated temperature and precipitation change

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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Aluminum alloyed with small atomic fractions of Sc, Zr, and Hf has been shown to exhibit high temperature microstructural stability that may improve high temperature mechanical behavior. These quaternary alloys were designed using thermodynamic modeling to increase the volume fraction of precipitated tri-aluminide phases to improve thermal stability. When aged during a multi-step, isochronal heat treatment, two compositions showed a secondary room-temperature hardness peak up to 700 MPa at 450°C. Elevated temperature hardness profiles also indicated an increase in hardness from 200-300°C, attributed to the precipitation of Al3Sc, however, no secondary hardness response was observed from the Al3Zr or Al3Hf phases in this alloy.

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Northern peatlands are large reservoirs of soil organic carbon (C). Historically peatlands have served as a sink for C since decomposition is slowed primarily because of a raised water table (WT) that creates anoxic conditions. Climate models are predicting dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns for the northern hemisphere that contain more than 90% of the world’s peatlands. It is uncertain whether climate change will shift northern peatlands from C sequestering systems to a major global C source within the next century because of alterations to peatland hydrology. This research investigated the effects of 80 years of hydrological manipulations on peatland C cycling in a poor fen peatland in northern Michigan. The construction of an earthen levee within the Seney National Wildlife Refuge in the 1930’s resulted in areas of raised and lowered WT position relative to an intermediate WT site that was unaltered by the levee. We established sites across the gradient of long-term WT manipulations to examine how decadal changes in WT position alter peatland C cycling. We quantified vegetation dynamics, peat substrate quality, and pore water chemistry in relation to trace gas C cycling in these manipulated areas as well as the intermediate site. Vegetation in both the raised and lowered WT treatments has different community structure, biomass, and productivity dynamics compared to the intermediate site. Peat substrate quality exhibited differences in chemical composition and lability across the WT treatments. Pore water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increased with impoundment and WT drawdown. The raised WT treatment DOC has a low aromaticity and is a highly labile C source, whereas WT drawdown has increased DOC aromaticity. This study has demonstrated a subtle change of the long-term WT position in a northern peatland will induce a significant influence on ecosystem C cycling with implications for the fate of peatland C stocks.

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This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.