Mechanisms contributing to the deep chlorophyll maximum in Lake Superior

The seasonal appearance of a deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) in Lake Superior is a striking phenomenon that is widely observed; however its mechanisms of formation and maintenance are not well understood. As this phenomenon may be the reflection of an ecological driver, or a driver itself, a lack of understanding its driving forces limits the ability to accurately predict and manage changes in this ecosystem. Key mechanisms generally associated with DCM dynamics (i.e. ecological, physiological and physical phenomena) are examined individually and in concert to establish their role. First the prevailing paradigm, “the DCM is a great place to live”, is analyzed through an integration of the results of laboratory experiments and field measurements. The analysis indicates that growth at this depth is severely restricted and thus not able to explain the full magnitude of this phenomenon. Additional contributing mechanisms like photoadaptation, settling and grazing are reviewed with a one-dimensional mathematical model of chlorophyll and particulate organic carbon. Settling has the strongest impact on the formation and maintenance of the DCM, transporting biomass to the metalimnion and resulting in the accumulation of algae, i.e. a peak in the particulate organic carbon profile. Subsequently, shade adaptation becomes manifest as a chlorophyll maximum deeper in the water column where light conditions particularly favor the process. Shade adaptation mediates the magnitude, shape and vertical position of the chlorophyll peak. Growth at DCM depth shows only a marginal contribution, while grazing has an adverse effect on the extent of the DCM. The observed separation of the carbon biomass and chlorophyll maximum should caution scientists to equate the DCM with a large nutrient pool that is available to higher trophic levels. The ecological significance of the DCM should not be separated from the underlying carbon dynamics. When evaluated in its entirety, the DCM becomes the projected image of a structure that remains elusive to measure but represents the foundation of all higher trophic levels. These results also offer guidance in examine ecosystem perturbations such as climate change. For example, warming would be expected to prolong the period of thermal stratification, extending the late summer period of suboptimal (phosphorus-limited) growth and attendant transport of phytoplankton to the metalimnion. This reduction in epilimnetic algal production would decrease the supply of algae to the metalimnion, possibly reducing the supply of prey to the grazer community. This work demonstrates the value of modeling to challenge and advance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics, steps vital to reliable testing of management alternatives.

EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.