Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Micro combined heat and power laboratory development

Micro Combined Heat and Power (Micro-CHP) system produces both electricity and heat required for residential or small business applications. Use of Micro-CHP in a residential application not only creates energy and economic savings but also reduces the carbon foot print of the house or small business. Additionally, micro-CHP can subsidize its cost of operation by selling excess electricity produced back to the grid. Even though Micro-CHP remains attractive on paper, high initial cost and optimization issues in residential scale heat and electrical requirement has kept this technology from becoming a success. To understand and overcome all disadvantages posed my Micro-CHP system, a laboratory is developed to test different scenarios of Micro-CHP applications so that we can learn and improve the current technology. This report focuses on the development of this Micro-CHP laboratory including installation of Ecopower micro-CHP unit, developing fuel line and exhaust line for Ecopower unit, design of electrical and thermal loop, installing all the instrumentation required for data collection on the Ecopower unit and developing controls for heat load simulation using thermal loop. Also a simulation of Micro-CHP running on Syngas is done in Matlab. This work was supported through the donation of ‘Ecopower’ a Micro-CHP unit by Marathon Engine and through the support of Michigan Tech REF-IF grand.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Compatibility of ultra high performance concrete as repair material : bond characterization with concrete under different loading scenarios

The rehabilitation of concrete structures, especially concrete bridge decks, is a major challenge for transportation agencies in the United States. Often, the most appropriate strategy to preserve or rehabilitate these structures is to provide some form of a protective coating or barrier. These surface treatments have typically been some form of polymer, asphalt, or low-permeability concrete, but the application of UHPC has shown promise for this application mainly due to its negligible permeability, but also as a result of its excellent mechanical properties, self-consolidating nature, rapid gain strength, and minimal creep and shrinkage characteristics. However, for widespread acceptance, durability and performance of the composite system must be fully understood, specifically the bond between UHPC and NSC often used in bridge decks. It is essential that the bond offers enough strength to resist the stress due to mechanical loading or thermal effects, while also maintaining an extended service-life performance. This report attempts to assess the bond strength between UHPC and NSC under different loading configurations. Different variables, such as roughness degree of the concrete substrates, age of bond, exposure to freeze-thaw cycles and wetting conditions of the concrete substrate, were included in this study. The combination of splitting tensile test with 0, 300, 600 and 900 freeze-thaw cycles was carried out to assess the bond performance under severe ambient conditions. The slant-shear test was utilized with different interface angles to provide a wide understanding of the bond performance under different combinations of compression and shear stresses. The pull-off test is the most accepted method to evaluate the bond strength in the field. This test which studies the direct tensile strength of the bond, the most severe loading condition, was used to provide data that can be correlated with the other tests that only can be used in the laboratory. The experimental program showed that the bond performance between UHPC and NSC is successful, as the strength regardless the different degree of roughness of the concrete substrate, the age of the composite specimens, the exposure to freeze-thaw cycles and the different loading configurations, is greater than that of concrete substrate and largely satisfies with ACI 546.3R-06.

Robustness of speckle imaging techniques applied to horizontal imaging scenarios

Atmospheric turbulence near the ground severely limits the quality of imagery acquired over long horizontal paths. In defense, surveillance, and border security applications, there is interest in deploying man-portable, embedded systems incorporating image reconstruction methods to compensate turbulence effects. While many image reconstruction methods have been proposed, their suitability for use in man-portable embedded systems is uncertain. To be effective, these systems must operate over significant variations in turbulence conditions while subject to other variations due to operation by novice users. Systems that meet these requirements and are otherwise designed to be immune to the factors that cause variation in performance are considered robust. In addition robustness in design, the portable nature of these systems implies a preference for systems with a minimum level of computational complexity. Speckle imaging methods have recently been proposed as being well suited for use in man-portable horizontal imagers. In this work, the robustness of speckle imaging methods is established by identifying a subset of design parameters that provide immunity to the expected variations in operating conditions while minimizing the computation time necessary for image recovery. Design parameters are selected by parametric evaluation of system performance as factors external to the system are varied. The precise control necessary for such an evaluation is made possible using image sets of turbulence degraded imagery developed using a novel technique for simulating anisoplanatic image formation over long horizontal paths. System performance is statistically evaluated over multiple reconstruction using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) to evaluate reconstruction quality. In addition to more general design parameters, the relative performance the bispectrum and the Knox-Thompson phase recovery methods is also compared. As an outcome of this work it can be concluded that speckle-imaging techniques are robust to the variation in turbulence conditions and user controlled parameters expected when operating during the day over long horizontal paths. Speckle imaging systems that incorporate 15 or more image frames and 4 estimates of the object phase per reconstruction provide up to 45% reduction in MSE and 68% reduction in the deviation. In addition, Knox-Thompson phase recover method is shown to produce images in half the time required by the bispectrum. The quality of images reconstructed using Knox-Thompson and bispectrum methods are also found to be nearly identical. Finally, it is shown that certain blind image quality metrics can be used in place of the MSE to evaluate quality in field scenarios. Using blind metrics rather depending on user estimates allows for reconstruction quality that differs from the minimum MSE by as little as 1%, significantly reducing the deviation in performance due to user action.