Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR RARE AND COMMON VARIANT ASSOCIATION STUDIES

Complex human diseases are a major challenge for biological research. The goal of my research is to develop effective methods for biostatistics in order to create more opportunities for the prevention and cure of human diseases. This dissertation proposes statistical technologies that have the ability of being adapted to sequencing data in family-based designs, and that account for joint effects as well as gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in the GWA studies. The framework includes statistical methods for rare and common variant association studies. Although next-generation DNA sequencing technologies have made rare variant association studies feasible, the development of powerful statistical methods for rare variant association studies is still underway. Chapter 2 demonstrates two adaptive weighting methods for rare variant association studies based on family data for quantitative traits. The results show that both proposed methods are robust to population stratification, robust to the direction and magnitude of the effects of causal variants, and more powerful than the methods using weights suggested by Madsen and Browning [2009]. In Chapter 3, I extended the previously proposed test for Testing the effect of an Optimally Weighted combination of variants (TOW) [Sha et al., 2012] for unrelated individuals to TOW &ndash F, TOW for Family &ndash based design. Simulation results show that TOW &ndash F can control for population stratification in wide range of population structures including spatially structured populations, is robust to the directions of effect of causal variants, and is relatively robust to percentage of neutral variants. In GWA studies, this dissertation consists of a two &ndash locus joint effect analysis and a two-stage approach accounting for gene &ndash gene and gene &ndash environment interaction. Chapter 4 proposes a novel two &ndash stage approach, which is promising to identify joint effects, especially for monotonic models. The proposed approach outperforms a single &ndash marker method and a regular two &ndash stage analysis based on the two &ndash locus genotypic test. In Chapter 5, I proposed a gene &ndash based two &ndash stage approach to identify gene &ndash gene and gene &ndash environment interactions in GWA studies which can include rare variants. The two &ndash stage approach is applied to the GAW 17 dataset to identify the interaction between KDR gene and smoking status.

IDENTIFICATION OF GENES CONTROLLING BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS THROUGH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND NETWORK RECONSTRUCTION

The developmental processes and functions of an organism are controlled by the genes and the proteins that are derived from these genes. The identification of key genes and the reconstruction of gene networks can provide a model to help us understand the regulatory mechanisms for the initiation and progression of biological processes or functional abnormalities (e.g. diseases) in living organisms. In this dissertation, I have developed statistical methods to identify the genes and transcription factors (TFs) involved in biological processes, constructed their regulatory networks, and also evaluated some existing association methods to find robust methods for coexpression analyses. Two kinds of data sets were used for this work: genotype data and gene expression microarray data. On the basis of these data sets, this dissertation has two major parts, together forming six chapters. The first part deals with developing association methods for rare variants using genotype data (chapter 4 and 5). The second part deals with developing and/or evaluating statistical methods to identify genes and TFs involved in biological processes, and construction of their regulatory networks using gene expression data (chapter 2, 3, and 6). For the first part, I have developed two methods to find the groupwise association of rare variants with given diseases or traits. The first method is based on kernel machine learning and can be applied to both quantitative as well as qualitative traits. Simulation results showed that the proposed method has improved power over the existing weighted sum method (WS) in most settings. The second method uses multiple phenotypes to select a few top significant genes. It then finds the association of each gene with each phenotype while controlling the population stratification by adjusting the data for ancestry using principal components. This method was applied to GAW 17 data and was able to find several disease risk genes. For the second part, I have worked on three problems. First problem involved evaluation of eight gene association methods. A very comprehensive comparison of these methods with further analysis clearly demonstrates the distinct and common performance of these eight gene association methods. For the second problem, an algorithm named the bottom-up graphical Gaussian model was developed to identify the TFs that regulate pathway genes and reconstruct their hierarchical regulatory networks. This algorithm has produced very significant results and it is the first report to produce such hierarchical networks for these pathways. The third problem dealt with developing another algorithm called the top-down graphical Gaussian model that identifies the network governed by a specific TF. The network produced by the algorithm is proven to be of very high accuracy.