Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF PARTIAL LOW RISK DEPLOYMENT IN A FIXED VEHICLE ENVIRONMENT

This study will look at the passenger air bag (PAB) performance in a fix vehicle environment using Partial Low Risk Deployment (PLRD) as a strategy. This development will follow test methods against actual baseline vehicle data and Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards 208 (FMVSS 208). FMVSS 208 states that PAB compliance in vehicle crash testing can be met using one of three deployment methods. The primary method suppresses PAB deployment, with the use of a seat weight sensor or occupant classification sensor (OCS), for three-year old and six-year old occupants including the presence of a child seat. A second method, PLRD allows deployment on all size occupants suppressing only for the presents of a child seat. A third method is Low Risk Deployment (LRD) which allows PAB deployment in all conditions, all statures including any/all child seats. This study outlines a PLRD development solution for achieving FMVSS 208 performance. The results of this study should provide an option for system implementation including opportunities for system efficiency and other considerations. The objective is to achieve performance levels similar too or incrementally better than the baseline vehicles National Crash Assessment Program (NCAP) Star rating. In addition, to define systemic flexibility where restraint features can be added or removed while improving occupant performance consistency to the baseline. A certified vehicles’ air bag system will typically remain in production until the vehicle platform is redesigned. The strategy to enable the PLRD hypothesis will be to first match the baseline out of position occupant performance (OOP) for the three and six-year old requirements. Second, improve the 35mph belted 5th percentile female NCAP star rating over the baseline vehicle. Third establish an equivalent FMVSS 208 certification for the 25mph unbelted 50th percentile male. FMVSS 208 high-speed requirement defines the federal minimum crash performance required for meeting frontal vehicle crash-test compliance. The intent of NCAP 5-Star rating is to provide the consumer with information about crash protection, beyond what is required by federal law. In this study, two vehicles segments were used for testing to compare and contrast to their baseline vehicles performance. Case Study 1 (CS1) used a cross over vehicle platform and Case Study 2 (CS2) used a small vehicle segment platform as their baselines. In each case study, the restraints systems were from different restraint supplier manufactures and each case contained that suppliers approach to PLRD. CS1 incorporated a downsized twins shaped bag, a carryover inflator, standard vents, and a strategic positioned bag diffuser to help disperse the flow of gas to improve OOP. The twin shaped bag with two segregated sections (lobes) to enabled high-speed baseline performance correlation on the HYGE Sled. CS2 used an A-Symmetric (square shape) PAB with standard size vents, including a passive vent, to obtain OOP similar to the baseline. The A-Symmetric shape bag also helped to enabled high-speed baseline performance improvements in HYGE Sled testing in CS2. The anticipated CS1 baseline vehicle-pulse-index (VPI) target was in the range of 65-67. However, actual dynamic vehicle (barrier) testing was overshadowed with the highest crash pulse from the previous tested vehicles with a VPI of 71. The result from the 35mph NCAP Barrier test was a solid 4-Star (4.7 Star) respectfully. In CS2, the vehicle HYGE Sled development VPI range, from the baseline was 61-62 respectively. Actual NCAP test produced a chest deflection result of 26mm versus the anticipated baseline target of 12mm. The initial assessment of this condition was thought to be due to the vehicles significant VPI increase to 67. A subsequent root cause investigation confirmed a data integrity issue due to the instrumentation. In an effort to establish a true vehicle test data point a second NCAP test was performed but faced similar instrumentation issues. As a result, the chest deflect hit the target of 12.1mm; however a femur load spike, similar to the baseline, now skewed the results. With noted level of performance improvement in chest deflection, the NCAP star was assessed as directional for 5-Star capable performance. With an actual rating of 3-Star due to instrumentation, using data extrapolation raised the ratings to 5-Star. In both cases, no structural changes were made to the surrogate vehicle and the results in each case matched their perspective baseline vehicle platforms. These results proved the PLRD is viable for further development and production implementation.