SAMPLING BIAS IN EVALUATING THE PROBABILITY OF SEISMICALLY INDUCED SOIL LIQUEFACTION WITH SPT & CPT CASE HISTORIES

Several deterministic and probabilistic methods are used to evaluate the probability of seismically induced liquefaction of a soil. The probabilistic models usually possess some uncertainty in that model and uncertainties in the parameters used to develop that model. These model uncertainties vary from one statistical model to another. Most of the model uncertainties are epistemic, and can be addressed through appropriate knowledge of the statistical model. One such epistemic model uncertainty in evaluating liquefaction potential using a probabilistic model such as logistic regression is sampling bias. Sampling bias is the difference between the class distribution in the sample used for developing the statistical model and the true population distribution of liquefaction and non-liquefaction instances. Recent studies have shown that sampling bias can significantly affect the predicted probability using a statistical model. To address this epistemic uncertainty, a new approach was developed for evaluating the probability of seismically-induced soil liquefaction, in which a logistic regression model in combination with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was used. This approach was used to estimate the population (true) distribution of liquefaction to non-liquefaction instances of standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) based most updated case histories. Apart from this, other model uncertainties such as distribution of explanatory variables and significance of explanatory variables were also addressed using KS test and Wald statistic respectively. Moreover, based on estimated population distribution, logistic regression equations were proposed to calculate the probability of liquefaction for both SPT and CPT based case history. Additionally, the proposed probability curves were compared with existing probability curves based on SPT and CPT case histories.

Development of specifications for the superpave simple performance tests

This study describes the development and establishment of a proposed Simple Performance Test (SPT) specification in order to contribute to the asphalt materials technology in the state of Michigan. The properties and characteristic of materials, performance testing of specimens, and field analyses are used in developing draft SPT specifications. These advanced and more effective specifications should significantly improve the qualities of designed and constructed hot mix asphalt (HMA) leading to improvement in pavement life in Michigan. The objectives of this study include the following: 1) using the SPT, conduct a laboratory study to measure the parameters including the dynamic modulus terms (E*/sinϕ and E*) and the flow number (Fn) for typical Michigan HMA mixtures, 2) correlate the results of the laboratory study to field performance as they relate to flexible pavement performance (rutting, fatigue, and low temperature cracking), and 3) make recommendations for the SPT criteria at specific traffic levels (e.g. E3, E10, E30), including recommendations for a draft test specification for use in Michigan. The specification criteria of dynamic modulus were developed based upon field rutting performance and contractor warranty criteria.

Testing Wisconsin asphalt mixtures for the 2002 AASHTO mechanistic design procedure

There has been a continuous evolutionary process in asphalt pavement design. In the beginning it was crude and based on past experience. Through research, empirical methods were developed based on materials response to specific loading at the AASHO Road Test. Today, pavement design has progressed to a mechanistic-empirical method. This methodology takes into account the mechanical properties of the individual layers and uses empirical relationships to relate them to performance. The mechanical tests that are used as part of this methodology include dynamic modulus and flow number, which have been shown to correlate with field pavement performance. This thesis was based on a portion of a research project being conducted at Michigan Technological University (MTU) for the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). The global scope of this project dealt with the development of a library of values as they pertain to the mechanical properties of the asphalt pavement mixtures paved in Wisconsin. Additionally, a comparison with the current associated pavement design to that of the new AASHTO Design Guide was conducted. This thesis describes the development of the current pavement design methodology as well as the associated tests as part of a literature review. This report also details the materials that were sampled from field operations around the state of Wisconsin and their testing preparation and procedures. Testing was conducted on available round robin and three Wisconsin mixtures and the main results of the research were: The test history of the Superpave SPT (fatigue and permanent deformation dynamic modulus) does not affect the mean response for both dynamic modulus and flow number, but does increase the variability in the test results of the flow number. The method of specimen preparation, compacting to test geometry versus sawing/coring to test geometry, does not statistically appear to affect the intermediate and high temperature dynamic modulus and flow number test results. The 2002 AASHTO Design Guide simulations support the findings of the statistical analyses that the method of specimen preparation did not impact the performance of the HMA as a structural layer as predicted by the Design Guide software. The methodologies for determining the temperature-viscosity relationship as stipulated by Witczak are sensitive to the viscosity test temperatures employed. The increase in asphalt binder content by 0.3% was found to actually increase the dynamic modulus at the intermediate and high test temperature as well as flow number. This result was based the testing that was conducted and was contradictory to previous research and the hypothesis that was put forth for this thesis. This result should be used with caution and requires further review. Based on the limited results presented herein, the asphalt binder grade appears to have a greater impact on performance in the Superpave SPT than aggregate angularity. Dynamic modulus and flow number was shown to increase with traffic level (requiring an increase in aggregate angularity) and with a decrease in air voids and confirm the hypotheses regarding these two factors. Accumulated micro-strain at flow number as opposed to the use of flow number appeared to be a promising measure for comparing the quality of specimens within a specific mixture. At the current time the Design Guide and its associate software needs to be further improved prior to implementation by owner/agencies.