Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

SPRING DISCHARGE MONITORING IN LOW-RESOURCE SETTINGS: A CASE STUDY OF CONCEPCIÓN CHIQUIRICHAPA, GUATEMALA

Water springs are the principal source of water for many localities in Central America, including the municipality of Concepción Chiquirichapa in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Long-term monitoring records are critical for informed water management as well as resource forecasting, though data are scarce and monitoring in low-resource settings presents special challenges. Spring discharge was monitored monthly in six municipal springs during the author’s Peace Corps assignment, from May 2011 to March 2012, and water level height was monitored in two spring boxes over the same time period using automated water-level loggers. The intention of this approach was to circumvent the need for frequent and time-intensive manual measurement by identifying a fixed relationship between discharge and water level. No such relationship was identified, but the water level record reveals that spring yield increased for four months following Tropical Depression 12E in October 2011. This suggests that the relationship between extreme precipitation events and long-term water spring yields in Concepción should be examined further. These limited discharge data also indicate that aquifer baseflow recession and catchment water balance could be successfully characterized if a long-term discharge record were established. This study also presents technical and social considerations for selecting a methodology for spring discharge measurement and highlights the importance of local interest in conducting successful community-based research in intercultural low-resource settings.

IMPROVEMENTS IN SUSTAINABILITY OF GRAVITY-FED WATER SYSTEMS IN THE COMARCA NGÄBE-BUGLÉ, PANAMA: SPRING CAPTURES AND CIRCUIT RIDER MODEL

Gravity-flow aqueducts are used to bring clean water from mountain springs in the Comarca Ngäbe-Buglé, Panama, to the homes of the indigenous people who reside there. Spring captures enclose a spring to direct the flow of water into the transmission line. Seepage contact springs are most common, with water appearing above either hard basalt bedrock or a dense clay layer. Spring flows vary dramatically during wet and dry seasons, and discharge points of springs can shift, sometimes enough to impact the capture structure and its ability to properly collect all of the available water. Traditionally, spring captures are concrete boxes. The spring boxes observed by the author were dilapidated or out of alignment with the spring itself, only capturing part of the discharge. An improved design approach was developed that mimics the terrain surrounding the spring source to address these issues. Over the course of a year, three different spring sites were evaluated, and spring captures were designed and constructed based on the new approach. Spring flow data from each case study demonstrate increased flow capture in the improved structures. Rural water systems, including spring captures, can be sustainably maintained by the Circuit Rider model, a technical support system in which technical assistance is provided for the operation of the water systems. During 2012-2013, the author worked as a Circuit Rider and facilitated a water system improvement project while exploring methods of community empowerment to increase the capacity for system maintenance. Based on these experiences, recommendations are provided to expand the Circuit Rider model in the Comarca Ngäbe-Buglé under the Panamanian Ministry of Health’s Water and Sanitation Project (PASAP)

Waterpower : a geophysical and archaeological investigation of the waterpower system at the West Point Foundry, Cold Spring, New York

Waterpower: A Geophysical and Archaeological Investigation of the Waterpower System at the West Point Foundry, Cold Spring, New York, describes the results of ground penetrating radar surveys and archaeological excavation undertaken by Michigan Technological University (MTU) archaeologists during the summer of 2003 at the West Point Foundry, Cold Spring, New York. 2003 constituted MTU's second field season at the foundry. Fieldwork concentrated on the foundry's waterpower system, an intricate network of surface and subsurface drains, races, flumes, waterwheels, turbines, dams, and ponds that powered operations and regulated water flow throughout the site. Archaeologists utilized non-destructive geophysical technology, which expedited survey, facilitated placement of excavation units, and provided a model for future archaeogeophysical research at industrial sites. Features discovered during excavation provided valuable information pertaining to the waterpower system's construction and its functions. Data from ground penetrating radar surveys, archaeological excavation, historical photographs, documents, and maps permitted the development of a provisional chronology of the development of various components of the West Point Foundry's waterpower system. Information gathered during this project serves as an aid in sit interpretation and rehabilitation.