Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

A PETROPHYSICAL EVALUATION OF THE TRENTON-BLACK RIVER FORMATION OF THE MICHIGAN BASIN

This work is conducted to study the geological and petrophysical features of the Trenton- Black River limestone formation. Log curves, crossplots and mineral identification methods using well-log data are used to determine the components and analyze changes in lithology. Thirty-five wells from the Michigan Basin are used to define the mineralogy of Trenton-Black River limestone. Using the different responses of a few log curves, especially gamma-ray, resistivity and neutron porosity, the formation tops for the Utica shale, the Trenton limestone, the Black River limestone and the Prairie du Chien sandstone are identified to confirm earlier authors’ work and provide a basis for my further work. From these, an isopach map showing the thickness of Trenton-Black River formation is created, indicating that its maximum thickness lies in the eastern basin and decreases gradually to the west. In order to obtain more detailed lithological information about the limestone formations at the thirty-five wells, (a) neutron-density and neutron-sonic crossplots, (b) mineral identification methods, including the M-N plot, MID plot, ϱmaa vs. Umaa MID plot, and the PEF plot, and (c) a modified mineral identification technique are applied to these wells. From this, compositions of the Trenton-Black River formation can be divided into three different rock types: pure limestone, partially dolomitized limestone, and shaly limestone. Maps showing the fraction of dolomite and shale indicate their geographic distribution, with dolomite present more in the western and southwestern basin, and shale more common in the north-central basin. Mineral identification is an independent check on the distribution found from other authors, who found similar distributions based on core descriptions. The Thomas Stieber method of analysis is best suited to sand-shale sequences, interpreting hree different distributions of shale within sand, including dispersed, laminated and structural. Since this method is commonly applied in clastic rocks, my work using the Thomas Stieber method is new, as an attempt to apply this technique, developed for clastics, to carbonate rocks. Based on the original assumption and equations with a corresponding change to the Trenton-Black River formation, feasibility of using the Thomas Stieber method in carbonates is tested. A graphical display of gamma-ray versus density porosity, using the properties of clean carbonate and pure shale, suggests the presence of laminated shale in fourteen wells in this study. Combined with Wilson’s study (2001), it is safe to conclude that when shale occurs in the Trenton-Black River formation, it tends to be laminated shale.

PARTICIPANT IMPACTS FROM A PARTICIPATORY WATER MODELING WORKSHOP IN THE SONORA RIVER BASIN, MEXICO

Much of the research in the field of participatory modeling (PM) has focused on the developed world. Few cases are focused on developing regions, and even fewer on Latin American developing countries. The work that has been done in Latin America has often involved water management, often specifically involving water users, and has not focused on the decision making stage of the policy cycle. Little work has been done to measure the effect PM may have on the perceptions and beliefs of decision makers. In fact, throughout the field of PM, very few attempts have been made to quantitatively measure changes in participant beliefs and perceptions following participation. Of the very few exceptions, none have attempted to measure the long-term change in perceptions and beliefs. This research fills that gap. As part of a participatory modeling project in Sonora, Mexico, a region with water quantity and quality problems, I measured the change in beliefs among participants about water models: ability to use and understand them, their usefulness, and their accuracy. I also measured changes in beliefs about climate change, and about water quantity problems, specifically the causes, solutions, and impacts. I also assessed participant satisfaction with the process and outputs from the participatory modeling workshops. Participants were from water agencies, academic institutions, NGOs, and independent consulting firms. Results indicated that participant comfort and self-efficacy with water models, their beliefs in the usefulness of water models, and their beliefs about the impact of water quantity problems changed significantly as a result of the workshops. I present my findings and discuss the results.