FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Risk assessment for invasive exotic plants using multi-criteria risk models

Invasive exotic plants have altered natural ecosystems across much of North America. In the Midwest, the presence of invasive plants is increasing rapidly, causing changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Early detection has become a key component in invasive plant management and in the detection of ecosystem change. Risk assessment through predictive modeling has been a useful resource for monitoring and assisting with treatment decisions for invasive plants. Predictive models were developed to assist with early detection of ten target invasive plants in the Great Lakes Network of the National Park Service and for garlic mustard throughout the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These multi-criteria risk models utilize geographic information system (GIS) data to predict the areas at highest risk for three phases of invasion: introduction, establishment, and spread. An accuracy assessment of the models for the ten target plants in the Great Lakes Network showed an average overall accuracy of 86.3%. The model developed for garlic mustard in the Upper Peninsula resulted in an accuracy of 99.0%. Used as one of many resources, the risk maps created from the model outputs will assist with the detection of ecosystem change, the monitoring of plant invasions, and the management of invasive plants through prioritized control efforts.

Physical modeling of air injection as a scour remediation technique near gated weir stilling basins

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) manages and operates numerous water control structures that are subject to scour. In an effort to reduce scour downstream of these gated structures, laboratory experiments were performed to investigate the effect of active air-injection downstream of the terminal structure of a gated spillway on the depth of the scour hole. A literature review involving similar research revealed significant variables such as the ratio of headwater-to-tailwater depths, the diffuser angle, sediment uniformity, and the ratio of air-to-water volumetric discharge values. The experimental design was based on the analysis of several of these non-dimensional parameters. Bed scouring at stilling basins downstream of gated spillways has been identified as posing a serious risk to the spillway’s structural stability. Although this type of scour has been studied in the past, it continues to represent a real threat to water control structures and requires additional attention. A hydraulic scour channel comprised of a head tank, flow straightening section, gated spillway, stilling basin, scour section, sediment trap, and tail-tank was used to further this analysis. Experiments were performed in a laboratory channel consisting of a 1:30 scale model of the SFWMD S65E spillway structure. To ascertain the feasibility of air injection for scour reduction a proof-of-concept study was performed. Experiments were conducted without air entrainment and with high, medium, and low air entrainment rates for high and low headwater conditions. For the cases with no air entrainment it was found that there was excessive scour downstream of the structure due to a downward roller formed upon exiting the downstream sill of the stilling basin. When air was introduced vertically just downstream of, and at the same level as, the stilling basin sill, it was found that air entrainment does reduce scour depth by up to 58% depending on the air flow rate, but shifts the deepest scour location to the sides of the channel bed instead of the center. Various hydraulic flow conditions were tested without air injection to verify which scenario caused more scour. That scenario, uncontrolled free, in which water does not contact the gate and the water elevation in the stilling basin is lower than the spillway crest, would be used for the remainder of experiments testing air injection. Various air flow rates, diffuser elevations, air hole diameters, air hole spacings, diffuser angles and widths were tested in over 120 experiments. Optimal parameters include air injection at a rate that results in a water-to-air ratio of 0.28, air holes 1.016mm in diameter the entire width of the stilling basin, and a vertically orientated injection pattern. Detailed flow measurements were collected for one case using air injection and one without. An identical flow scenario was used for each experiment, namely that of a high flow rate and upstream headwater depth and a low tailwater depth. Equilibrium bed scour and velocity measurements were taken using an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter at nearly 3000 points. Velocity data was used to construct a vector plot in order to identify which flow components contribute to the scour hole. Additionally, turbulence parameters were calculated in an effort to help understand why air-injection reduced bed scour. Turbulence intensities, normalized mean flow, normalized kinetic energy, and anisotropy of turbulence plots were constructed. A clear trend emerged that showed air-injection reduces turbulence near the bed and therefore reduces scour potential.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.