Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

Optical hysteresis of ridge waveguide magnetic garnet films and cavities in two-dimensional magneto-photonic crystal slabs

Magnetic iron garnets as well as magnetic photonic crystals are of great interests in magneto-optic applications such as isolators, current captors, circulators, TE-TM mode conversion, wavelength accordable filters, optical sensors and switches, all of which provide a promising platform for future integrated optical circuits. In the present work, two topics are studied based on magnetic iron garnet films. In the first part, the characteristics of the magnetization are investigated for ridge waveguides fabricated on (100) oriented iron garnet thin films. The magnetic response in magneto-optic waveguides patterned on epitaxial magnetic garnet films depends on the crystallographic orientation of the waveguides and the magnetic anisotropy of the material. These can be studied by polarization rotation hysteresis loops, which are related to the component of magnetization parallel to the light propagation direction and the linear birefringence. Polarization rotation hysteresis loops for low birefringence waveguides with different orientations are experimentally investigated. Asymmetric stepped curves are obtained from waveguides along, due to the large magnetocrystalline anisotropy in the plane. A model based on the free energy density is developed to demonstrate the motion of the magnetization and can be used in the design of magneto-optic devices. The second part of this thesis focuses on the design and fabrication of high-Q cavities in two-dimensional magneto-photonic crystal slabs. The device consists of a layer of silicon and a layer of iron garnet thin film. Triangular lattice elliptical air holes are patterned in the slab. The fundamental TM band gap overlaps with the first-order TE band gap from 0374~0.431(a/λ) showing that both TE and TM polarization light can be confined in the photonic crystals. A nanocavity is designed to obtain both TE and TM defect modes in the band gaps. Additional work is needed to overlap the TE and TM defect modes and obtain a high-Q cavity so as to develop miniaturized Faraday rotators.

Bayesian change-point analysis in linear regression model with scale mixtures of normal distributions

In this thesis, we consider Bayesian inference on the detection of variance change-point models with scale mixtures of normal (for short SMN) distributions. This class of distributions is symmetric and thick-tailed and includes as special cases: Gaussian, Student-t, contaminated normal, and slash distributions. The proposed models provide greater flexibility to analyze a lot of practical data, which often show heavy-tail and may not satisfy the normal assumption. As to the Bayesian analysis, we specify some prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the variance change-point models with the SMN distributions. Due to the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, we propose an efficient Gibbs-type with Metropolis- Hastings sampling algorithm for posterior Bayesian inference. Thereafter, following the idea of [1], we consider the problems of the single and multiple change-point detections. The performance of the proposed procedures is illustrated and analyzed by simulation studies. A real application to the closing price data of U.S. stock market has been analyzed for illustrative purposes.