Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL OPTIMAL DROOP CONTROL FOR WIND RESOURCES IN DC MICROGRIDS

Two important and upcoming technologies, microgrids and electricity generation from wind resources, are increasingly being combined. Various control strategies can be implemented, and droop control provides a simple option without requiring communication between microgrid components. Eliminating the single source of potential failure around the communication system is especially important in remote, islanded microgrids, which are considered in this work. However, traditional droop control does not allow the microgrid to utilize much of the power available from the wind. This dissertation presents a novel droop control strategy, which implements a droop surface in higher dimension than the traditional strategy. The droop control relationship then depends on two variables: the dc microgrid bus voltage, and the wind speed at the current time. An approach for optimizing this droop control surface in order to meet a given objective, for example utilizing all of the power available from a wind resource, is proposed and demonstrated. Various cases are used to test the proposed optimal high dimension droop control method, and demonstrate its function. First, the use of linear multidimensional droop control without optimization is demonstrated through simulation. Next, an optimal high dimension droop control surface is implemented with a simple dc microgrid containing two sources and one load. Various cases for changing load and wind speed are investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques. Optimal multidimensional droop control is demonstrated with a wind resource in a full dc microgrid example, containing an energy storage device as well as multiple sources and loads. Finally, the optimal high dimension droop control method is applied with a solar resource, and using a load model developed for a military patrol base application. The operation of the proposed control is again investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Screening, optimization and extraction of polyhydroxyalkanoates and peptidoglycan from Bacillus megaterium

Bioplastics are polymers (such as polyesters) produced from bacterial fermentations that are biodegradable and nonhazardous. They are produced by a wide variety of bacteria and are made only when stress conditions allow, such as when nutrient levels are low, more specifically levels of nitrogen and oxygen. These stress conditions cause certain bacteria to build up excess carbon deposits as energy reserves in the form of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs). PHAs can be extracted and formed into actual plastic with the same strength of conventional, synthetic-based plastics without the need to rely on foreign petroleum. The overall goal of this project was to select for a bacteria that could grow on sugars found in the lignocellulosic biomass, and get the bacteria to produce PHAs and peptidoglycan. Once this was accomplished the goal was to extract PHAs and peptidoglycan in order to make a stronger more rigid plastic, by combing them into a co-polymer. The individual goals of this project were to: (1) Select and screen bacteria that are capable of producing PHAs by utilizing the carbon/energy sources found in lignocellulosic biomass; (2) Maximize the utilization of those sugars present in woody biomass in order to produce optimal levels of PHAs. (3) Use room temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) in order to separate the cell membrane and peptidoglycan, allowing for better extraction of PHAs and more intact peptidoglycan. B. megaterium a Gram-positive PHA-producing bacterium was selected for study in this project. It was grown on a variety of different substrates in order to maximize both its growth and production of PHAs. The optimal conditions were found to be 30°C, pH 6.0 and sugar concentration of either 30g/L glucose or xylose. After optimal growth was obtained, both RTILs and enzymatic treatments were used to break the cell wall, in order to extract the PHAs, and peptidoglycan. PHAs and peptidoglycan were successfully extracted from the cell, and will be used in the future to create a new stronger co-polymer. Peptidoglycan recovery yield was 16% of the cells’ dry weight.

Effective water treatment for rural communities in Suriname : a comparison of point-of-use ceramic filters and centralized treatment with sand filters

For countless communities around the world, acquiring access to safe drinking water is a daily challenge which many organizations endeavor to meet. The villages in the interior of Suriname have been the focus of many improved drinking water projects as most communities are without year-round access. Unfortunately, as many as 75% of the systems in Suriname fail within several years of implementation. These communities, scattered along the rivers and throughout the jungle, lack many of the resources required to sustain a centralized water treatment system. However, the centralized system in the village of Bendekonde on the Upper Suriname River has been operational for over 10 years and is often touted by other communities. The Bendekonde system is praised even though the technology does not differ significantly from other failed systems. Many of the water systems that fail in the interior fail due to a lack of resources available to the community to maintain the system. Typically, the more complex a system becomes, so does the demand for additional resources. Alternatives to centralized systems include technologies such as point-of-use water filters, which can greatly reduce the necessity for outside resources. In particular, ceramic point-of-use water filters offer a technology that can be reasonably managed in a low resource setting such as that in the interior of Suriname. This report investigates the appropriateness and effectiveness of ceramic filters constructed with local Suriname clay and compares the treatment effectiveness to that of the Bendekonde system. Results of this study showed that functional filters could be produced from Surinamese clay and that they were more effective, in a controlled laboratory setting, than the field performance of the Bendekonde system for removing total coliform. However, the Bendekonde system was more successful at removing E. coli. In a life-cycle assessment, ceramic water filters manufactured in Suriname and used in homes for a lifespan of 2 years were shown to have lower cumulative energy demand, as well as lower global warming potential than a centralized system similar to that used in Bendekonde.

Invitational rhetoric : alternative rhetorical strategy for transformation of perception and use of energy in the residential built environment from the Keweenaw to Kerala

This dissertation explores the viability of invitational rhetoric as a mode of advocacy for sustainable energy use in the residential built environment. The theoretical foundations for this study join ecofeminist concepts and commitments with the conditions and resources of invitational rhetoric, developing in particular the rhetorical potency of the concepts of re-sourcement and enfoldment. The methodological approach is autoethnography using narrative reflection and journaling, both adapted to and developed within the autoethnographic project. Through narrative reflection, the author explores her lived experiences in advocating for energy-responsible residential construction in the Keweenaw Peninsula of Michigan. The analysis reveals the opportunities for cooperative, collaborative advocacy and the struggle against traditional conventions of persuasive advocacy, particularly the centrality of the rhetor. The author also conducted two field trips to India, primarily the state of Kerala. Drawing on autoethnographic journaling, the analysis highlights the importance of sensory relations in lived advocacy and the resonance of everyday Indian culture to invitational principles. Based on field research, the dissertation proposes autoethnography as a critical development in encouraging invitational rhetoric as an alternative mode of effecting change. The invitational force of autoethnography is evidenced in portraying the material advocacy of the built environment itself, specifically the sensual experience of material arrangements and ambience, as well as revealing the corporeality of advocacy, that is, the body as the site of invitational engagement, emotional encounter, and sensory experience. This study concludes that vulnerability of self in autoethnographic work and the vulnerability of rhetoric as invitational constitute the basis for transformation. The dissertation confirms the potential of an ecofeminist invitational advocacy conveyed autoethnographically for transforming perceptions and use of energy in a smaller-scale residential environment appropriate for culture, climate, and ultimately part of the challenge of sustaining life on this planet.

Optimization of redundancy in branched water distribution systems

In developing countries many water distribution systems are branched networks with little redundancy. If any component in the distribution system fails, many users are left relying on secondary water sources. These sources oftentimes do not provide potable water and prolonged use leads to increased cases of water borne illnesses. Increasing redundancy in branched networks increases the reliability of the networks, but is oftentimes viewed as unaffordable. This paper presents a procedure for water system managers to use to determine which loops when added to a branch network provide the most benefit for users. Two methods are presented, one ranking the loops based on total number of users benefited, and one ranking the loops of number of vulnerable users benefited. A case study is presented using the water distribution system of Medina Bank Village, Belize. It was found that forming loops in upstream pipes connected to the main line had the potential to benefit the most users.

Capacity optimization of a prestressed concrete railroad tie

Today the use of concrete ties is on the rise in North America as they become an economically competitive alternative to the historical industry standard wood ties, while providing performance which exceeds its competition in terms of durability and capacity. Similarly, in response to rising energy costs, there is increased demand for efficient and sustainable transportation of people and goods. One source of such transportation is the railroad. To accommodate the increased demand, railroads are constructing new track and upgrading existing track. This update to the track system will increase its capacity while making it a more reliable means of transportation compared to other alternatives. In addition to increasing the track system capacity, railroads are considering an increase in the size of the typical freight rail car to allow larger tonnage. An increase in rail car loads will in turn affect the performance requirements of the track. Due to the increased loads heavy haul railroads are considering applying to their tracks, current designs of prestressed concrete railroad ties for heavy haul applications may be undersized. In an effort to maximize tie capacity while maintaining tie geometry, fastening systems and installation equipment, a parametric study to optimize the existing designs was completed. The optimization focused on maximizing the capacity of an existing tie design through an investigation of prestressing quantity, configuration, stress levels and other material properties. The results of the parametric optimization indicate that the capacity of an existing tie can be increased most efficiently by increasing the diameter of the prestressing and concrete strength. However, researchers also found that current design specifications and procedures do not include consideration of tie behavior beyond the current tie capacity limit of cracking to the first layer of prestressing. In addition to limiting analysis to the cracking limit, failure mechanisms such as shear in deep beams at the rail seat or pullout failure of the prestressing due to lack of development length were absent from specified design procedures, but discussed in this project.

Study of water use and supply in the district of Independencia, Peru

Peru is a developing country with abundant fresh water resources, yet the lack of infrastructure leaves much of the population without access to safe water for domestic uses. The author of this report was a Peace Corps Volunteer in the sector of water & sanitation in the district of Independencia, Ica, Peru. Independencia is located in the arid coastal region of the country, receiving on average 15 mm of rain annually. The water source for this district comes from the Pisco River, originating in the Andean highlands and outflowing into the Pacific Ocean near the town of Pisco, Peru. The objectives of this report are to assess the water supply and sanitation practices, model the existing water distribution system, and make recommendations for future expansion of the distribution system in the district of Independencia, Peru. The assessment of water supply will be based on the results from community surveys done in the district of Independencia, water quality testing done by a detachment of the U.S. Navy, as well as on the results of a hydraulic model built in EPANET 2.0 to represent the distribution system. Sanitation practice assessments will be based on the surveys as well as observations from the author while living in Peru. Recommendations for system expansions will be made based on results from the EPANET model and the municipality’s technical report for the existing distribution system. Household water use and sanitation surveys were conducted with 84 families in the district revealing that upwards of 85% store their domestic water in regularly washed containers with lids. Over 80% of those surveyed are drinking water that is treated, mostly boiled. Of those surveyed, over 95% reported washing their hands and over 60% mentioned at least one critical time for hand washing when asked for specific instances. From the surveys, it was also discovered that over 80% of houses are properly disposing of excrement, in either latrines or septic tanks. There were 43 families interviewed with children five years of age or under, and just over 18% reported the child had a case of diarrhea within the last month at the time of the interview. Finally, from the surveys it was calculated that the average water use per person per day is about 22 liters. Water quality testing carried out by a detachment of the U.S. Navy revealed that the water intended for consumption in the houses surveyed was not suitable for consumption, with a median E. coli most probable number of 47/100 ml for the 61 houses sampled. The median total coliforms was 3,000 colony forming units per 100 ml. EPANET was used to simulate the water delivery system and evaluate its performance. EPANET is designed for continuous water delivery systems, assuming all pipes are always flowing full. To account for the intermittent nature of the system, multiple EPANET network models were created to simulate how water is routed to the different parts of the system throughout the day. The models were created from interviews with the water technicians and a map of the system created using handheld GPS units. The purpose is to analyze the performance of the water system that services approximately 13,276 people in the district of Independencia, Peru, as well as provide recommendations for future growth and improvement of the service level. Performance evaluation of the existing system is based on meeting 25 liters per person per day while maintaining positive pressure at all nodes in the network. The future performance is based on meeting a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, as proposed by Chase (2000). The EPANET model results yield an average nodal pressure for all communities of 71 psi, with a range from 1.3 – 160 psi. Thus, if the current water delivery schedule obtained from the local municipality is followed, all communities should have sufficient pressure to deliver 25 l/p/d, with the exception of Los Rosales, which can only supply 3.25 l/p/d. However, if the line to Los Rosales were increased from one to four inches, the system could supply this community with 25 l/p/d. The district of Independencia could greatly benefit from increasing the service level to 24-hour water delivery and a minimum of 50 l/p/d, so that communities without reliable access due to insufficient pressure would become equal beneficiaries of this invaluable resource. To evaluate the feasibility of this, EPANET was used to model the system with a range of population growth rates, system lifetimes, and demands. In order to meet a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, the 6-inch diameter main line must be increased and approximately two miles of trench must be excavated up to 30 feet deep. The sections of the main line that must be excavated are mile 0-1 and 1.5-2.5, and the first 3.4 miles of the main line must be increased from 6 to 16 inches, contracting to 10 inches for the remaining 5.8 miles. Doing this would allow 24-hour water delivery and provide 50 l/p/d for a range of population growth rates and system lifetimes. It is expected that improving the water delivery service would reduce the morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases by decreasing the recontamination of the water due to transport and household storage, as well as by maintaining continuous pressure in the system to prevent infiltration of contaminated groundwater. However, this expansion must be carefully planned so as not to affect aquatic ecosystems or other districts utilizing water from the Pisco River. It is recommended that stream gaging of the Pisco River and precipitation monitoring of the surrounding watershed is initiated in order to begin a hydrological study that would be integrated into the district’s water resource planning. It is also recommended that the district begin routine water quality testing, with the results available to the public.

Microfluidic fabrication of advanced microcapsules for use in self-healing materials

The proposed work aims to facilitate the development of a microfluidic platform for the production of advanced microcapsules containing active agents which can be the functional constituents of self-healing composites. The creation of such microcapsules is enabled by the unique flow characteristics within microchannels including precise control over shear and interfacial forces for droplet creation and manipulation as well as the ability to form a solid shell either chemically or via the addition of thermal or irradiative energy. Microchannel design and a study of the fluid dynamics and mechanisms for shell creation are undertaken in order to establish a fabrication approach capable of producing healing-agent-containing microcapsules. An in-depth study of the process parameters has been undertaken in order to elucidate the advantages of this production technique including precise control of size (i.e., monodispersity) and surface morphology of the microcapsules. This project also aims to aid the optimization of the mechanical properties as well as healing performance of self-healing composites by studying the effects of the advantageous properties of the as-produced microcapsules. Scale-up of the microfluidic fabrication using parallel devices on a single chip as well as on-chip microcapsule production and shape control will also be investigated. It will be demonstrated that microfluidic fabrication is a versatile approach for the efficient creation of functional microcapsules allowing for superior design of self-healing composites.

DOUBLE VAULT COMPOSTING LATRINES IN RURAL PARAGUAY : FEASIBLE CONSTRUCTION AND OPTIMAL USE

Water resource depletion and sanitation are growing problems around the world. A solution to both of these problems is the use of composting latrines, as it requires no water and has been recommended by the World Health Organization as an improved sanitation technology. However, little analysis has been done on the decomposition process occurring inside the latrine, including what temperatures are reached and what variables most affect the composting process. Having better knowledge of how outside variables affect composting latrines can aid development workers on the choice of implementing such technology, and to better educate the users on the appropriate methods of maintenance. This report presents a full, detailed construction manual and temperature data analysis of a double vault composting latrine. During the author’s two year Peace Corps service in rural Paraguay he was involved with building twenty one composting latrines, and took detailed temperature readings and visual observations of his personal latrine for ten months. The author also took limited temperature readings of fourteen community member’s latrines over a three month period. These data points were analyzed to find correlations between compost temperatures and several variables. The two main variables found to affect the compost temperatures were the seasonal trends of the outside temperatures, and the mixing and addition of moisture to the compost. Outside seasonal temperature changes were compared to those of the compost and a linear regression was performed resulting in a R2-value of 0.89. Mixing the compost and adding water, or a water/urine mixture, resulted in temperature increases of the compost 100% of the time, with seasonal temperatures determining the rate and duration of the temperature increases. The temperature readings were also used to find events when certain temperatures were held for sufficient amounts of time to reach total pathogen destruction in the compost. Four different events were recorded when a temperature of 122°F (50°C) was held for at least 24 hours, ensuring total pathogen destruction in that area of the compost. One event of 114.8°F (46°C) held for one week was also recorded, again ensuring total pathogen destruction. Through the analysis of the temperature data, however, it was found that the compost only reached total pathogen destruction levels during ten percent of the data points. Because of this the storage time recommendation outlined by the World Health Organization should be complied with. The WHO recommends storing compost for 1.5-2 years in climates with ambient temperatures of 2-20°C (35-68°F), and for at least 1 year with ambient temperatures of 20-35°C (68-95°F). If these storage durations are obtainable the use of the double vault composting latrine is an economical and achievable solution to sanitation while conserving water resources.

THE EFFECTS OF WEB-BASED TECHNOLOGICAL RESOURCES IN A RURAL SCIENCE CLASSROOM

Today’s technology is evolving at an exponential rate. Everyday technology is finding more inroads into our education system. This study seeks to determine if having access to technology, including iPad tablets and a teacher's physical science webpage resources (videos, PowerPoint® presentations, and audio podcasts), assists ninth grade high school students in attaining greater comprehension and improved scientific literacy. Comprehension of the science concepts was measured by comparing current student pretest and post test scores on a teacher-written assessment. The current student post test scores were compared with prior classes’ (2010-2011 and 2009-2010) to determine if there was a difference in outcomes between the technology interventions and traditional instruction. Students entered responses to a technology survey that measured intervention usage and their perception of helpfulness of each intervention. The current year class’ mean composite scores, between the pretest and post test increased by 6.9 points (32.5%). Student composite scores also demonstrated that the interventions were successful in helping a majority of students (64.7%) attain the curriculum goals. The interventions were also successful in increasing student scientific literacy by meeting all of Bloom's cognitive levels that were assessed. When compared with prior 2010-2011 and 2009-2010 classes, the current class received a higher mean post test score indicating a positive effect of the use of technological interventions. The survey showed a majority of students utilized at least some of the technology interventions and perceived them as helpful, especially the videos and PowerPoint® presentations.

AGENT BASED, DISTRIBUTED CONTROL STRATEGIES AND OPTIMIZATION OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON SMART/MICROGRID ARCHITECTURES

This thesis will present strategies for the use of plug-in electric vehicles on smart and microgrids. MATLAB is used as the design tool for all models and simulations. First, a scenario will be explored using the dispatchable loads of electric vehicles to stabilize a microgrid with a high penetration of renewable power generation. Grid components for a microgrid with 50% photovoltaic solar production will be sized through an optimization routine to maintain storage system, load, and vehicle states over a 24-hour period. The findings of this portion are that the dispatchable loads can be used to guard against unpredictable losses in renewable generation output. Second, the use of distributed control strategies for the charging of electric vehicles utilizing an agent-based approach on a smart grid will be studied. The vehicles are regarded as additional loads to a primary forecasted load and use information transfer with the grid to make their charging decisions. Three lightweight control strategies and their effects on the power grid will be presented. The findings are that the charging behavior and peak loads on the grid can be reduced through the use of distributed control strategies.