FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

More favorable combination of circumstances could hardly have been desired : a bottom to top examination of the Pittsburgh and Boston Mining Company's Cliff Mine

The Cliff Mine, an archaeological site situated on the Keweenaw Peninsula of Michigan, is the location of the first successful attempt to mine native copper in North America. Under the management of the Pittsburgh & Boston Mining Company from 1845-1879, two-third of the Cliff’s mineral output was in the form of mass copper, some pieces of which weighed over 5 tons when removed from the ground. The unique nature of mass copper and the Cliff Mine’s handling of it make it one of the best examples of early mining processes in the Keweenaw District. Mass copper only constituted 2% of the entire product of the Lake Superior copper districts, and the story of early mining on the Peninsula is generally overshadowed by later, longer running mines such as the Calumet & Helca and Quincy Mining Companies. Operating into the mid-twentieth century, the size and duration of these later mines would come to define the region, though they would not have been possible without the Cliff’s early success. Research on the Cliff Mine has previously focused on social and popular history, neglecting the structural remains. However, these remains are physical clues to the technical processes that defined early mining on the Keweenaw. Through archaeological investigations, these processes and their associated networks were documented as part of the 2010 Michigan Technological Archaeology Field School’s curriculum. The project will create a visual representation of these processes utilizing Geographic Information Systems software. This map will be a useful aid in future research, community engagement and possible future interpretive planning.

Assessing land use and land cover change in tropical dry forest or Northern Chinandega, Nicaragus from 1985 to 2011

The objective of this study is to gain a quantitative understanding of land use and land cover change (LULCC) that have occurred in a rural Nicaraguan municipality by analyzing Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images. By comparing the potential extent of tropical dry forest (TDF) with Landsat 5 TM images, this study analyzes the loss of this forest type on a local level for the municipality of San Juan de Cinco Pinos (63.5 km2) in the Department of Chinandega. Change detection analysis shows where and how land use has changed from 1985 to the present. From 1985 to 2011, nearly 15% of the TDF in San Juan de Cinco Pinos was converted to other land uses. Of the 1434.2 ha of TDF that was present in 1985, 1223.64 ha remained in 2011. The deforestation is primarily a result of agricultural expansion and fuelwood extraction. If current rates of TDF deforestation continue, the municipality faces the prospect of losing its forest cover within the next few decades.

Land use/cover change using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems : Pic Macaya National Park, Haiti

A post classification change detection technique based on a hybrid classification approach (unsupervised and supervised) was applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+), and ASTER images acquired in 1987, 2000 and 2004 respectively to map land use/cover changes in the Pic Macaya National Park in the southern region of Haiti. Each image was classified individually into six land use/cover classes: built-up, agriculture, herbaceous, open pine forest, mixed forest, and barren land using unsupervised ISODATA and maximum likelihood supervised classifiers with the aid of field collected ground truth data collected in the field. Ground truth information, collected in the field in December 2007, and including equalized stratified random points which were visual interpreted were used to assess the accuracy of the classification results. The overall accuracy of the land classification for each image was respectively: 1987 (82%), 2000 (82%), 2004 (87%). A post classification change detection technique was used to produce change images for 1987 to 2000, 1987 to 2004, and 2000 to 2004. It was found that significant changes in the land use/cover occurred over the 17- year period. The results showed increases in built up (from 10% to 17%) and herbaceous (from 5% to 14%) areas between 1987 and 2004. The increase of herbaceous was mostly caused by the abandonment of exhausted agriculture lands. At the same time, open pine forest and mixed forest areas lost (75%) and (83%) of their area to other land use/cover types. Open pine forest (from 20% to 14%) and mixed forest (from18 to 12%) were transformed into agriculture area or barren land. This study illustrated the continuing deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion in the region, which in turn is leading to decrease in vegetative cover. The study also showed the importance of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to estimate timely changes in the land use/cover, and to evaluate their causes in order to design an ecological based management plan for the park.

Quickbird satellite imagery for riparian management : characterizing riparian filter strips and detecting concentrated flow in an agricultural watershed

Riparian ecology plays an important part in the filtration of sediments from upland agricultural lands. The focus of this work makes use of multispectral high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery (Quickbird by Digital Globe) and geographic information systems (GIS) to characterize significant riparian attributes in the USDA’s experimental watershed, Goodwin Creek, located in northern Mississippi. Significant riparian filter characteristics include the width of the strip, vegetation properties, soil properties, topography, and upland land use practices. The land use and vegetation classes are extracted from the remotely sensed image with a supervised maximum likelihood classification algorithm. Accuracy assessments resulted in an acceptable overall accuracy of 84 percent. In addition to sensing riparian vegetation characteristics, this work addresses the issue of concentrated flow bypassing a riparian filter. Results indicate that Quickbird multispectral remote sensing and GIS data are capable of determining riparian impact on filtering sediment. Quickbird imagery is a practical solution for land managers to monitor the effectiveness of riparian filtration in an agricultural watershed.

Relationship between instream habitat characteristics, emergent insects, and riparian bird communities

Streams and riparian areas can be intricately connected via physical and biotic interactions that influence habitat conditions and supply resource subsidies between these ecosystems. Streambed characteristics such as the size of substrate particles influence the composition and the abundance of emergent aquatic insects, which can be an important resource for riparian breeding birds. We predict fine sediment abundance in small headwater streams directly affects the composition and number of emergent insects while it may indirectly affect riparian bird assemblages. Streams with abundant fine sediments that embed larger substrates should have lower emergence of large insects such as phemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera. Streams with lower emergent insect abundance are predicted to support fewer breeding birds and may lack certain bird species that specialize on aquatic insects. This study examined relationships between streambed characteristics, and emergent insects (composition, abundance and biomass), and riparian breeding birds (abundance and richness) along headwater streams of the Otter River Watershed. The stream bed habitats of seven stream reaches were characterized using longitudinal surveys. Malaise traps were deployed to sample emergent aquatic insects. Riparian breeding birds were surveyed using fixed-radius point-counts. Streams differed within a wide range of fine sediment abundances. Total emergent aquatic insect abundance increased as coverage by instream substrates increased in diameter, while bird community was unresponsive to insect or stream features. Knowledge of stream and riparian relationships is important for understanding of food webs in these ecosystems, and it is useful for riparian forest conservation and improving land-use management to reduce sediment pollution in these systems.

Company Houses Along the Picket Line

Michigan copper mining companies owned and rented more than 3,000 houses along the Keweenaw Peninsula at the time of the 1913-14 copper strike. The provision of company-constructed housing in mining districts has drawn a wide range of inquiry. Mining historians, community planners, architectural historians, and academics interested in the immigrant experience have identified miners' housing as intriguing examples of corporate paternalism, social planning, vernacular adaptation and ethnic segregation. Michigan's Copper Country retains many examples of such housing and recent research has shown that the Michigan copper mining companies championed the use of housing as a non-wage employment benefit. This paper will investigate the increasingly important role of occupancy and control of company housing during the strike. Illustrated with images collected during the strike by the fledgling U.S. Department of Labor, the presentation explores the history of company housing in the Copper Country, its part in a larger system of corporate welfare, and how the threat of evictions may have turned the tide of strike.

"Brethren upon the same level" : membership and class in Calumet's Masonic Lodge

The Keweenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan was a ethnic conglomerate of cultures and ideas, with people attracted to the area by the mineral wealth found along the Copper Range. The center of copper mining from the mid 1860s to 1968 was in the vicinity of Calumet Township, home to the world-famous Calumet and Hecla Mining Company. The township depended on the mines and the company���s president Agassiz’s strove to make the area a “model community,” that included groups such as the Free and Accepted Masons. Men from myriad backgrounds arrived in Calumet from the British Isles, Germany, Finland, Eastern and Southern Europe and the Eastern United States. As in other communities from the time period these men formed common interest groups like Masonic Lodge 271, which received its charter in 1870. Gentlemen joined with merchants and craftsmen. They became “brethren upon the same level,” and were elevated to the status of Master Mason. This symbolic transformation within the Lodge removed the men from the “profane world” outside the sanctity of Masonry, and in the ritualistic transformation of the meeting they were reborn into Masonry’s sacred mysteries. Masonry acted as a means of moral guidance to men and gave them access to a larger social and economic community through a common connection of brotherhood. As the candidates moved through the three Blue Lodge degrees of Entered Apprentice, Fellowcraft, and Master Mason they saw each other as “brethren upon the same level” – all economic classes equal within the Masonic Lodge. To examine equality within Lodge 271, this study sorted workers into classes to allow a comparison of Lodge 271’s membership. Possibly a comparison between other lodges can be drawn from the membership. The Union Building in Calumet, MI will be examined for its role in the ritualistic transformation of Masonry as it housed Masonic activities and transformations. This transformation brought men into the lodge of brothers. While Masonry professed equality between members however, to what extent did the membership of the lodge reflect this between the brethren? To what extent did economic class determine who was made “brethren upon the same level? 1 Arthur Thurner, Calumet Copper and People: History of a Michigan Mining Community, 1864-1970 (Hancock, MI: Book Concern, 1974), 122.