2 resultados para Quantitative systems pharmacology

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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Worldwide, rural populations are far less likely to have access to clean drinking water than are urban ones. In many developing countries, the current approach to rural water supply uses a model of demand-driven, community-managed water systems. In Suriname, South America rural populations have limited access to improved water supplies; community-managed water supply systems have been installed in several rural communities by nongovernmental organizations as part of the solution. To date, there has been no review of the performance of these water supply systems. This report presents the results of an investigation of three rural water supply systems constructed in Saramaka villages in the interior of Suriname. The investigation used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, coupled with ethnographic information, to construct a comprehensive overview of these water systems. This overview includes the water use of the communities, the current status of the water supply systems, histories and sustainability of the water supply projects, technical reviews, and community perceptions. From this overview, factors important to the sustainability of these water systems were identified. Community water supply systems are engineered solutions that operate through social cooperation. The results from this investigation show that technical adequacy is the first and most critical factor for long-term sustainability of a water system. It also shows that technical adequacy is dependent on the appropriateness of the engineering design for the social, cultural, and natural setting in which it takes place. The complex relationships between technical adequacy, community support, and the involvement of women play important roles in the success of water supply projects. Addressing these factors during the project process and taking advantage of alternative water resources may increase the supply of improved drinking water to rural communities.

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Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.