MODELING DYNAMICS OF OZONE AND NITROGEN OXIDES AT SUMMIT, GREENLAND WITH A 1-D PROCESS-SCALE MODEL

This work presents a 1-D process scale model used to investigate the chemical dynamics and temporal variability of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone (O3) within and above snowpack at Summit, Greenland for March-May 2009 and estimates surface exchange of NOx between the snowpack and surface layer in April-May 2009. The model assumes the surface of snowflakes have a Liquid Like Layer (LLL) where aqueous chemistry occurs and interacts with the interstitial air of the snowpack. Model parameters and initialization are physically and chemically representative of snowpack at Summit, Greenland and model results are compared to measurements of NOx and O3 collected by our group at Summit, Greenland from 2008-2010. The model paired with measurements confirmed the main hypothesis in literature that photolysis of nitrate on the surface of snowflakes is responsible for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack at solar noon for March – May time periods in 2009. Nighttime peaks of NO2 in the snowpack for April and May were reproduced with aqueous formation of peroxynitric acid (HNO4) in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack with subsequent mass transfer to the gas phase, decomposition to form NO2 at nighttime, and transportation of the NO2 to depths of 2 meters. Modeled production of HNO4 was hindered in March 2009 due to the low production of its precursor, hydroperoxy radical, resulting in underestimation of nighttime NO2 in the snowpack for March 2009. The aqueous reaction of O3 with formic acid was the major sync of O3 in the snowpack for March-May, 2009. Nitrogen monoxide (NO) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack is related to the photolysis of NO2, which underrepresents NO in May of 2009. Modeled surface exchange of NOx in April and May are on the order of 1011 molecules m-2 s-1. Removal of measured downward fluxes of NO and NO2 in measured fluxes resulted in agreement between measured NOx fluxes and modeled surface exchange in April and an order of magnitude deviation in May. Modeled transport of NOx above the snowpack in May shows an order of magnitude increase of NOx fluxes in the first 50 cm of the snowpack and is attributed to the production of NO2 during the day from the thermal decomposition and photolysis of peroxynitric acid with minor contributions of NO from HONO photolysis in the early morning.

DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND PARAMETERIZATION OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR SEDIMENT PHOSPHORUS DIAGENESIS, SORPTION AND RELEASE FROM ONONDAGA LAKE SYRACUSE, NEW YORK

Eutrophication is a persistent problem in many fresh water lakes. Delay in lake recovery following reductions in external loading of phosphorus, the limiting nutrient in fresh water ecosystems, is often observed. Models have been created to assist with lake remediation efforts, however, the application of management tools to sediment diagenesis is often neglected due to conceptual and mathematical complexity. SED2K (Chapra et al. 2012) is proposed as a "middle way", offering engineering rigor while being accessible to users. An objective of this research is to further support the development and application SED2K for sediment phosphorus diagenesis and release to the water column of Onondaga Lake. Application of SED2K has been made to eutrophic Lake Alice in Minnesota. The more homogenous sediment characteristics of Lake Alice, compared with the industrially polluted sediment layers of Onondaga Lake, allowed for an invariant rate coefficient to be applied to describe first order decay kinetics of phosphorus. When a similar approach was attempted on Onondaga Lake an invariant rate coefficient failed to simulate the sediment phosphorus profile. Therefore, labile P was accounted for by progressive preservation after burial and a rate coefficient which gradual decreased with depth was applied. In this study, profile sediment samples were chemically extracted into five operationally-defined fractions: CaCO3-P, Fe/Al-P, Biogenic-P, Ca Mineral-P and Residual-P. Chemical fractionation data, from this study, showed that preservation is not the only mechanism by which phosphorus may be maintained in a non-reactive state in the profile. Sorption has been shown to contribute substantially to P burial within the profile. A new kinetic approach involving partitioning of P into process based fractions is applied here. Results from this approach indicate that labile P (Ca Mineral and Organic P) is contributing to internal P loading to Onondaga Lake, through diagenesis and diffusion to the water column, while the sorbed P fraction (Fe/Al-P and CaCO3-P) is remaining consistent. Sediment profile concentrations of labile and total phosphorus at time of deposition were also modeled and compared with current labile and total phosphorus, to quantify the extent to which remaining phosphorus which will continue to contribute to internal P loading and influence the trophic status of Onondaga Lake. Results presented here also allowed for estimation of the depth of the active sediment layer and the attendant response time as well as the sediment burden of labile P and associated efflux.

Risk analysis of light-frame wood construction due to multiple hazards

Light-frame wood buildings are widely built in the United States (U.S.). Natural hazards cause huge losses to light-frame wood construction. This study proposes methodologies and a framework to evaluate the performance and risk of light-frame wood construction. Performance-based engineering (PBE) aims to ensure that a building achieves the desired performance objectives when subjected to hazard loads. In this study, the collapse risk of a typical one-story light-frame wood building is determined using the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method. The collapse risks of buildings at four sites in the Eastern, Western, and Central regions of U.S. are evaluated. Various sources of uncertainties are considered in the collapse risk assessment so that the influence of uncertainties on the collapse risk of lightframe wood construction is evaluated. The collapse risks of the same building subjected to maximum considered earthquakes at different seismic zones are found to be non-uniform. In certain areas in the U.S., the snow accumulation is significant and causes huge economic losses and threatens life safety. Limited study has been performed to investigate the snow hazard when combined with a seismic hazard. A Filtered Poisson Process (FPP) model is developed in this study, overcoming the shortcomings of the typically used Bernoulli model. The FPP model is validated by comparing the simulation results to weather records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The FPP model is applied in the proposed framework to assess the risk of a light-frame wood building subjected to combined snow and earthquake loads. The snow accumulation has a significant influence on the seismic losses of the building. The Bernoulli snow model underestimates the seismic loss of buildings in areas with snow accumulation. An object-oriented framework is proposed in this study to performrisk assessment for lightframe wood construction. For home owners and stake holders, risks in terms of economic losses is much easier to understand than engineering parameters (e.g., inter story drift). The proposed framework is used in two applications. One is to assess the loss of the building subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Aftershock and downtime costs are found to be important factors in the assessment of seismic losses. The framework is also applied to a wood building in the state of Washington to assess the loss of the building subjected to combined earthquake and snow loads. The proposed framework is proven to be an appropriate tool for risk assessment of buildings subjected to multiple hazards. Limitations and future works are also identified.

Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

A STUDY ON THE FEASIBILITY OF UNIVERSAL CHIP CONTROL IN MACHINING

A novel solution to the long standing issue of chip entanglement and breakage in metal cutting is presented in this dissertation. Through this work, an attempt is made to achieve universal chip control in machining by using chip guidance and subsequent breakage by backward bending (tensile loading of the chip's rough top surface) to effectively control long continuous chips into small segments. One big limitation of using chip breaker geometries in disposable carbide inserts is that the application range is limited to a narrow band depending on cutting conditions. Even within a recommended operating range, chip breakers do not function effectively as designed due to the inherent variations of the cutting process. Moreover, for a particular process, matching the chip breaker geometry with the right cutting conditions to achieve effective chip control is a very iterative process. The existence of a large variety of proprietary chip breaker designs further exacerbates the problem of easily implementing a robust and comprehensive chip control technique. To address the need for a robust and universal chip control technique, a new method is proposed in this work. By using a single tool top form geometry coupled with a tooling system for inducing chip breaking by backward bending, the proposed method achieves comprehensive chip control over a wide range of cutting conditions. A geometry based model is developed to predict a variable edge inclination angle that guides the chip flow to a predetermined target location. Chip kinematics for the new tool geometry is examined via photographic evidence from experimental cutting trials. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to characterize the chip kinematics. Results from the chip characterization studies indicate that the chip flow and final form show a remarkable consistency across multiple levels of workpiece and tool configurations as well as cutting conditions. A new tooling system is then designed to comprehensively break the chip by backward bending. Test results with the new tooling system prove that by utilizing the chip guidance and backward bending mechanism, long continuous chips can be more consistently broken into smaller segments that are generally deemed acceptable or good chips. It is found that the proposed tool can be applied effectively over a wider range of cutting conditions than present chip breakers thus taking possibly the first step towards achieving universal chip control in machining.

MODELING OF TRANSFER PATH FOR DETERMINATION OF COMBUSTION AND NOISE METRICS ON DIESEL ENGINES

Determination of combustion metrics for a diesel engine has the potential of providing feedback for closed-loop combustion phasing control to meet current and upcoming emission and fuel consumption regulations. This thesis focused on the estimation of combustion metrics including start of combustion (SOC), crank angle location of 50% cumulative heat release (CA50), peak pressure crank angle location (PPCL), and peak pressure amplitude (PPA), peak apparent heat release rate crank angle location (PACL), mean absolute pressure error (MAPE), and peak apparent heat release rate amplitude (PAA). In-cylinder pressure has been used in the laboratory as the primary mechanism for characterization of combustion rates and more recently in-cylinder pressure has been used in series production vehicles for feedback control. However, the intrusive measurement with the in-cylinder pressure sensor is expensive and requires special mounting process and engine structure modification. As an alternative method, this work investigated block mounted accelerometers to estimate combustion metrics in a 9L I6 diesel engine. So the transfer path between the accelerometer signal and the in-cylinder pressure signal needs to be modeled. Depending on the transfer path, the in-cylinder pressure signal and the combustion metrics can be accurately estimated - recovered from accelerometer signals. The method and applicability for determining the transfer path is critical in utilizing an accelerometer(s) for feedback. Single-input single-output (SISO) frequency response function (FRF) is the most common transfer path model; however, it is shown here to have low robustness for varying engine operating conditions. This thesis examines mechanisms to improve the robustness of FRF for combustion metrics estimation. First, an adaptation process based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm was developed and added to the single-input single-output model. Second, a multiple-input single-output (MISO) FRF model coupled with principal component analysis and an offset compensation process was investigated and applied. Improvement of the FRF robustness was achieved based on these two approaches. Furthermore a neural network as a nonlinear model of the transfer path between the accelerometer signal and the apparent heat release rate was also investigated. Transfer path between the acoustical emissions and the in-cylinder pressure signal was also investigated in this dissertation on a high pressure common rail (HPCR) 1.9L TDI diesel engine. The acoustical emissions are an important factor in the powertrain development process. In this part of the research a transfer path was developed between the two and then used to predict the engine noise level with the measured in-cylinder pressure as the input. Three methods for transfer path modeling were applied and the method based on the cepstral smoothing technique led to the most accurate results with averaged estimation errors of 2 dBA and a root mean square error of 1.5dBA. Finally, a linear model for engine noise level estimation was proposed with the in-cylinder pressure signal and the engine speed as components.