DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.

Fabrication of nanoparticles by short-distance sputter deposition

During the past decades, tremendous research interests have been attracted to investigate nanoparticles due to their promising catalytic, magnetic, and optical properties. In this thesis, two novel methods of nanoparticle fabrication were introduced and the basic formation mechanisms were studied. Metal nanoparticles and polyurethane nanoparticles were separately fabricated by a short-distance sputter deposition technique and a reactive ion etching process. First, a sputter deposition method with a very short target-substrate distance is found to be able to generate metal nanoparticles on the glass substrate inside a RIE chamber. The distribution and morphology of nanoparticles are affected by the distance, the ion concentration and the process time. Densely-distributed nanoparticles of various compositions are deposited on the substrate surface when the target-substrate distance is smaller than 130mm. It is much less than the atoms’ mean free path, which is the threshold in previous research for nanoparticles’ formation. Island structures are formed when the distance is increased to 510mm, indicating the tendency to form continuous thin film. The trend is different from previously-reported sputtering method for nanoparticle fabrication, where longer distance between the target and the substrate facilitates the formation of nanoparticle. A mechanism based on the seeding effect of the substrate is proposed to interpret the experimental results. Secondly, in polyurethane nanoparticles’ fabrication, a mechanism is put forward based on the microphase separation phenomenon in block copolymer thin film. The synthesized polymers have formed dispersed and continuous phases because of the different properties between segments. With harder mechanical property, the dispersed phase is remained after RIE process while the continuous phase is etched away, leading to the formation of nanoparticles on the substrate. The nanoparticles distribution is found to be affected by the heating effect, the process time and the plasma power. Superhydrophilic property is found on samples with these two types of nanoparticles. The relationship between the nanostructure and the hydrophilicity is studied for further potential applications.

MODELING DYNAMICS OF OZONE AND NITROGEN OXIDES AT SUMMIT, GREENLAND WITH A 1-D PROCESS-SCALE MODEL

This work presents a 1-D process scale model used to investigate the chemical dynamics and temporal variability of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone (O3) within and above snowpack at Summit, Greenland for March-May 2009 and estimates surface exchange of NOx between the snowpack and surface layer in April-May 2009. The model assumes the surface of snowflakes have a Liquid Like Layer (LLL) where aqueous chemistry occurs and interacts with the interstitial air of the snowpack. Model parameters and initialization are physically and chemically representative of snowpack at Summit, Greenland and model results are compared to measurements of NOx and O3 collected by our group at Summit, Greenland from 2008-2010. The model paired with measurements confirmed the main hypothesis in literature that photolysis of nitrate on the surface of snowflakes is responsible for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack at solar noon for March – May time periods in 2009. Nighttime peaks of NO2 in the snowpack for April and May were reproduced with aqueous formation of peroxynitric acid (HNO4) in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack with subsequent mass transfer to the gas phase, decomposition to form NO2 at nighttime, and transportation of the NO2 to depths of 2 meters. Modeled production of HNO4 was hindered in March 2009 due to the low production of its precursor, hydroperoxy radical, resulting in underestimation of nighttime NO2 in the snowpack for March 2009. The aqueous reaction of O3 with formic acid was the major sync of O3 in the snowpack for March-May, 2009. Nitrogen monoxide (NO) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack is related to the photolysis of NO2, which underrepresents NO in May of 2009. Modeled surface exchange of NOx in April and May are on the order of 1011 molecules m-2 s-1. Removal of measured downward fluxes of NO and NO2 in measured fluxes resulted in agreement between measured NOx fluxes and modeled surface exchange in April and an order of magnitude deviation in May. Modeled transport of NOx above the snowpack in May shows an order of magnitude increase of NOx fluxes in the first 50 cm of the snowpack and is attributed to the production of NO2 during the day from the thermal decomposition and photolysis of peroxynitric acid with minor contributions of NO from HONO photolysis in the early morning.

Molecular modeling of EPON 862-DETDA polymer

EPON 862 is an epoxy resin which is cured with the hardening agent DETDA to form a crosslinked epoxy polymer and is used as a component in modern aircraft structures. These crosslinked polymers are often exposed to prolonged periods of temperatures below glass transition range which cause physical aging to occur. Because physical aging can compromise the performance of epoxies and their composites and because experimental techniques cannot provide all of the necessary physical insight that is needed to fully understand physical aging, efficient computational approaches to predict the effects of physical aging on thermo-mechanical properties are needed. In this study, Molecular Dynamics and Molecular Minimization simulations are being used to establish well-equilibrated, validated molecular models of the EPON 862-DETDA epoxy system with a range of crosslink densities using a united-atom force field. These simulations are subsequently used to predict the glass transition temperature, thermal expansion coefficients, and elastic properties of each of the crosslinked systems for validation of the modeling techniques. The results indicate that glass transition temperature and elastic properties increase with increasing levels of crosslink density and the thermal expansion coefficient decreases with crosslink density, both above and below the glass transition temperature. The results also indicate that there may be an upper limit to crosslink density that can be realistically achieved in epoxy systems. After evaluation of the thermo-mechanical properties, a method is developed to efficiently establish molecular models of epoxy resins that represent the corresponding real molecular structure at specific aging times. Although this approach does not model the physical aging process, it is useful in establishing a molecular model that resembles the physically-aged state for further use in predicting thermo-mechanical properties as a function of aging time. An equation has been predicted based on the results which directly correlate aging time to aged volume of the molecular model. This equation can be helpful for modelers who want to study properties of epoxy resins at different levels of aging but have little information about volume shrinkage occurring during physical aging.

Use of manual adaptive remeshing in the mechanical modeling of an intraneural ganglion cyst

Intraneural Ganglion Cysts expand within in a nerve, causing neurological deficits in afflicted patients. Modeling the propagation of these cysts, originating in the articular branch and then expanding radially outward, will help prove articular theory, and ultimately allow for more purposeful treatment of this condition. In Finite Element Analysis, traditional Lagrangian meshing methods fail to model the excessive deformation that occurs in the propagation of these cysts. This report explores the method of manual adaptive remeshing as a method to allow for the use of Lagrangian meshing, while circumventing the severe mesh distortions typical of using a Lagrangian mesh with a large deformation. Manual adaptive remeshing is the process of remeshing a deformed meshed part and then reapplying loads in order to achieve a larger deformation than a single mesh can achieve without excessive distortion. The methods of manual adaptive remeshing described in this Master’s Report are sufficient in modeling large deformations.

EPA's Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling : a case study of science policy implementation

As environmental problems became more complex, policy and regulatory decisions become far more difficult to make. The use of science has become an important practice in the decision making process of many federal agencies. Many different types of scientific information are used to make decisions within the EPA, with computer models becoming especially important. Environmental models are used throughout the EPA in a variety of contexts and their predictive capacity has become highly valued in decision making. The main focus of this research is to examine the EPA’s Council for Regulatory Modeling (CREM) as a case study in addressing science issues, particularly models, in government agencies. Specifically, the goal was to answer the following questions: What is the history of the CREM and how can this information shed light on the process of science policy implementation? What were the goals of implementing the CREM? Were these goals reached and how have they changed? What have been the impediments that the CREM has faced and why did these impediments occur? The three main sources of information for this research came from observations during summer employment with the CREM, document review and supplemental interviews with CREM participants and other members of the modeling community. Examining a history of modeling at the EPA, as well as a history of the CREM, provides insight into the many challenges that are faced when implementing science policy and science policy programs. After examining the many impediments that the CREM has faced in implementing modeling policies, it was clear that the impediments fall into two separate categories, classic and paradoxical. The classic impediments include the more standard impediments to science policy implementation that might be found in any regulatory environment, such as lack of resources and changes in administration. Paradoxical impediments are cyclical in nature, with no clear solution, such as balancing top-down versus bottom-up initiatives and coping with differing perceptions. These impediments, when not properly addressed, severely hinder the ability for organizations to successfully implement science policy.

Development and modeling of thermally conductive resins for fuel cell bipolar plate applications

Thermally conductive resins are a class of material that show promise in many different applications. One growing field for their use is in the area of bipolar plate technology for fuel cell applications. In this work, a LCP was mixed with different types of carbon fillers to determine the effects of the individual carbon fillers on the thermal conductivity of the composite resin. In addition, mathematical modeling was performed on the thermal conductivity data with the goal of developing predictive models for the thermal conductivity of highly filled composite resins.

Modeling contaminant behavior in Lake Superior : a comparison of PCBs, PBDEs, and mercury

A mass‐balance model for Lake Superior was applied to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and mercury to determine the major routes of entry and the major mechanisms of loss from this ecosystem as well as the time required for each contaminant class to approach steady state. A two‐box model (water column, surface sediments) incorporating seasonally adjusted environmental parameters was used. Both numerical (forward Euler) and analytical solutions were employed and compared. For validation, the model was compared with current and historical concentrations and fluxes in the lake and sediments. Results for PCBs were similar to prior work showing that air‐water exchange is the most rapid input and loss process. The model indicates that mercury behaves similarly to a moderately‐chlorinated PCB, with air‐water exchange being a relatively rapid input and loss process. Modeled accumulation fluxes of PBDEs in sediments agreed with measured values reported in the literature. Wet deposition rates were about three times greater than dry particulate deposition rates for PBDEs. Gas deposition was an important process for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs (BDEs 28 and 47), but not for higher‐brominated BDEs. Sediment burial was the dominant loss mechanism for most of the PBDE congeners while volatilization was still significant for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs. Because volatilization is a relatively rapid loss process for both mercury and the most abundant PCBs (tri‐ through penta‐), the model predicts that similar times (from 2 ‐ 10 yr) are required for the compounds to approach steady state in the lake. The model predicts that if inputs of Hg(II) to the lake decrease in the future then concentrations of mercury in the lake will decrease at a rate similar to the historical decline in PCB concentrations following the ban on production and most uses in the U.S. In contrast, PBDEs are likely to respond more slowly if atmospheric concentrations are reduced in the future because loss by volatilization is a much slower process for PBDEs, leading to lesser overall loss rates for PBDEs in comparison to PCBs and mercury. Uncertainties in the chemical degradation rates and partitioning constants of PBDEs are the largest source of uncertainty in the modeled times to steady‐state for this class of chemicals. The modeled organic PBT loading rates are sensitive to uncertainties in scavenging efficiencies by rain and snow, dry deposition velocity, watershed runoff concentrations, and uncertainties in air‐water exchange such as the effect of atmospheric stability.

Numerical modeling of the failure mechanisms in Si thin film anode for Li-ion batteries

In recent times, the demand for the storage of electrical energy has grown rapidly for both static applications and the portable electronics enforcing the substantial improvement in battery systems, and Li-ion batteries have been proven to have maximum energy storage density in all rechargeable batteries. However, major breakthroughs are required to consummate the requirement of higher energy density with lower cost to penetrate new markets. Graphite anode having limited capacity has become a bottle neck in the process of developing next generation batteries and can be replaced by higher capacity metals such as Silicon. In the present study we are focusing on the mechanical behavior of the Si-thin film anode under various operating conditions. A numerical model is developed to simulate the intercalation induced stress and the failure mechanism of the complex anode structure. Effect of the various physical phenomena such as diffusion induced stress, plasticity and the crack propagation are investigated to predict better performance parameters for improved design.

Dynamic modeling of active regeneration in catalyzed and non-catalyzed diesel particulate filters

Particulate matter (PM) emissions standards set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have become increasingly stringent over the years. The EPA regulation for PM in heavy duty diesel engines has been reduced to 0.01 g/bhp-hr for the year 2010. Heavy duty diesel engines make use of an aftertreatment filtration device, the Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF). DPFs are highly efficient in filtering PM (known as soot) and are an integral part of 2010 heavy duty diesel aftertreatment system. PM is accumulated in the DPF as the exhaust gas flows through it. This PM needs to be removed by oxidation periodically for the efficient functioning of the filter. This oxidation process is also known as regeneration. There are 2 types of regeneration processes, namely active regeneration (oxidation of PM by external means) and passive oxidation (oxidation of PM by internal means). Active regeneration occurs typically in high temperature regions, about 500 - 600 °C, which is much higher than normal diesel exhaust temperatures. Thus, the exhaust temperature has to be raised with the help of external devices like a Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) or a fuel burner. The O2 oxidizes PM producing CO2 as oxidation product. In passive oxidation, one way of regeneration is by the use of NO2. NO2 oxidizes the PM producing NO and CO2 as oxidation products. The passive oxidation process occurs at lower temperatures (200 - 400 °C) in comparison to the active regeneration temperatures. Generally, DPF substrate walls are washcoated with catalyst material to speed up the rate of PM oxidation. The catalyst washcoat is observed to increase the rate of PM oxidation. The goal of this research is to develop a simple mathematical model to simulate the PM depletion during the active regeneration process in a DPF (catalyzed and non-catalyzed). A simple, zero-dimensional kinetic model was developed in MATLAB. Experimental data required for calibration was obtained by active regeneration experiments performed on PM loaded mini DPFs in an automated flow reactor. The DPFs were loaded with PM from the exhaust of a commercial heavy duty diesel engine. The model was calibrated to the data obtained from active regeneration experiments. Numerical gradient based optimization techniques were used to estimate the kinetic parameters of the model.

Modeling mechanical response of heterogeneous materials

Heterogeneous materials are ubiquitous in nature and as synthetic materials. These materials provide unique combination of desirable mechanical properties emerging from its heterogeneities at different length scales. Future structural and technological applications will require the development of advanced light weight materials with superior strength and toughness. Cost effective design of the advanced high performance synthetic materials by tailoring their microstructure is the challenge facing the materials design community. Prior knowledge of structure-property relationships for these materials is imperative for optimal design. Thus, understanding such relationships for heterogeneous materials is of primary interest. Furthermore, computational burden is becoming critical concern in several areas of heterogeneous materials design. Therefore, computationally efficient and accurate predictive tools are highly essential. In the present study, we mainly focus on mechanical behavior of soft cellular materials and tough biological material such as mussel byssus thread. Cellular materials exhibit microstructural heterogeneity by interconnected network of same material phase. However, mussel byssus thread comprises of two distinct material phases. A robust numerical framework is developed to investigate the micromechanisms behind the macroscopic response of both of these materials. Using this framework, effect of microstuctural parameters has been addressed on the stress state of cellular specimens during split Hopkinson pressure bar test. A voronoi tessellation based algorithm has been developed to simulate the cellular microstructure. Micromechanisms (microinertia, microbuckling and microbending) governing macroscopic behavior of cellular solids are investigated thoroughly with respect to various microstructural and loading parameters. To understand the origin of high toughness of mussel byssus thread, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization framework has been developed. It is found that two different material phases (collagens) of mussel byssus thread are optimally distributed along the thread. These applications demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity in the system demands high computational resources for simulation and modeling. Thus, Higher Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) based surrogate modeling concept has been proposed to reduce computational complexity. The applicability of such methodology has been demonstrated in failure envelope construction and in multiscale finite element techniques. It is observed that surrogate based model can capture the behavior of complex material systems with sufficient accuracy. The computational algorithms presented in this thesis will further pave the way for accurate prediction of macroscopic deformation behavior of various class of advanced materials from their measurable microstructural features at a reasonable computational cost.

Multi-software modeling technique for field distribution propagation through an optical vertical interconnect assembly

Embedded siloxane polymer waveguides have shown promising results for use in optical backplanes. They exhibit high temperature stability, low optical absorption, and require common processing techniques. A challenging aspect of this technology is out-of-plane coupling of the waveguides. A multi-software approach to modeling an optical vertical interconnect (via) is proposed. This approach utilizes the beam propagation method to generate varied modal field distribution structures which are then propagated through a via model using the angular spectrum propagation technique. Simulation results show average losses between 2.5 and 4.5 dB for different initial input conditions. Certain configurations show losses of less than 3 dB and it is shown that in an input/output pair of vias, average losses per via may be lower than the targeted 3 dB.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION MODELING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECASTS IN CHINA

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

Development of room temperature operating single electron transistor using FIB etching and deposition technology

The single-electron transistor (SET) is one of the best candidates for future nano electronic circuits because of its ultralow power consumption, small size and unique functionality. SET devices operate on the principle of Coulomb blockade, which is more prominent at dimensions of a few nano meters. Typically, the SET device consists of two capacitively coupled ultra-small tunnel junctions with a nano island between them. In order to observe the Coulomb blockade effects in a SET device the charging energy of the device has to be greater that the thermal energy. This condition limits the operation of most of the existing SET devices to cryogenic temperatures. Room temperature operation of SET devices requires sub-10nm nano-islands due to the inverse dependence of charging energy on the radius of the conducting nano-island. Fabrication of sub-10nm structures using lithography processes is still a technological challenge. In the present investigation, Focused Ion Beam based etch and deposition technology is used to fabricate single electron transistors devices operating at room temperature. The SET device incorporates an array of tungsten nano-islands with an average diameter of 8nm. The fabricated devices are characterized at room temperature and clear Coulomb blockade and Coulomb oscillations are observed. An improvement in the resolution limitation of the FIB etching process is demonstrated by optimizing the thickness of the active layer. SET devices with structural and topological variation are developed to explore their impact on the behavior of the device. The threshold voltage of the device was minimized to ~500mV by minimizing the source-drain gap of the device to 17nm. Vertical source and drain terminals are fabricated to realize single-dot based SET device. A unique process flow is developed to fabricate Si dot based SET devices for better gate controllability in the device characteristic. The device vi parameters of the fabricated devices are extracted by using a conductance model. Finally, characteristic of these devices are validated with the simulated data from theoretical modeling.

MODELING AND PROTOCOL DESIGN FOR EMERGING WIRELESS SYSTEMS

Mobile Mesh Network based In-Transit Visibility (MMN-ITV) system facilitates global real-time tracking capability for the logistics system. In-transit containers form a multi-hop mesh network to forward the tracking information to the nearby sinks, which further deliver the information to the remote control center via satellite. The fundamental challenge to the MMN-ITV system is the energy constraint of the battery-operated containers. Coupled with the unique mobility pattern, cross-MMN behavior, and the large-spanned area, it is necessary to investigate the energy-efficient communication of the MMN-ITV system thoroughly. First of all, this dissertation models the energy-efficient routing under the unique pattern of the cross-MMN behavior. A new modeling approach, pseudo-dynamic modeling approach, is proposed to measure the energy-efficiency of the routing methods in the presence of the cross-MMN behavior. With this approach, it could be identified that the shortest-path routing and the load-balanced routing is energy-efficient in mobile networks and static networks respectively. For the MMN-ITV system with both mobile and static MMNs, an energy-efficient routing method, energy-threshold routing, is proposed to achieve the best tradeoff between them. Secondly, due to the cross-MMN behavior, neighbor discovery is executed frequently to help the new containers join the MMN, hence, consumes similar amount of energy as that of the data communication. By exploiting the unique pattern of the cross-MMN behavior, this dissertation proposes energy-efficient neighbor discovery wakeup schedules to save up to 60% of the energy for neighbor discovery. Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs)-based inter-vehicle communications is by now growingly believed to enhance traffic safety and transportation management with low cost. The end-to-end delay is critical for the time-sensitive safety applications in VANETs, and can be a decisive performance metric for VANETs. This dissertation presents a complete analytical model to evaluate the end-to-end delay against the transmission range and the packet arrival rate. This model illustrates a significant end-to-end delay increase from non-saturated networks to saturated networks. It hence suggests that the distributed power control and admission control protocols for VANETs should aim at improving the real-time capacity (the maximum packet generation rate without causing saturation), instead of the delay itself. Based on the above model, it could be determined that adopting uniform transmission range for every vehicle may hinder the delay performance improvement, since it does not allow the coexistence of the short path length and the low interference. Clusters are proposed to configure non-uniform transmission range for the vehicles. Analysis and simulation confirm that such configuration can enhance the real-time capacity. In addition, it provides an improved trade off between the end-to-end delay and the network capacity. A distributed clustering protocol with minimum message overhead is proposed, which achieves low convergence time.