Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Reaction Control in Quiescent Systems of Free-Radical Retrograde-Precipitation Polymerization

Free-radical retrograde-precipitation polymerization, FRRPP in short, is a novel polymerization process discovered by Dr. Gerard Caneba in the late 1980s. The current study is aimed at gaining a better understanding of the reaction mechanism of the FRRPP and its thermodynamically-driven features that are predominant in controlling the chain reaction. A previously developed mathematical model to represent free radical polymerization kinetics was used to simulate a classic bulk polymerization system from the literature. Unlike other existing models, such a sparse-matrix-based representation allows one to explicitly accommodate the chain length dependent kinetic parameters. Extrapolating from the past results, mixing was experimentally shown to be exerting a significant influence on reaction control in FRRPP systems. Mixing alone drives the otherwise severely diffusion-controlled reaction propagation in phase-separated polymer domains. Therefore, in a quiescent system, in the absence of mixing, it is possible to retard the growth of phase-separated domains, thus producing isolated polymer nanoparticles (globules). Such a diffusion-controlled, self-limiting phenomenon of chain growth was also observed using time-resolved small angle x-ray scattering studies of reaction kinetics in quiescent systems of FRRPP. Combining the concept of self-limiting chain growth in quiescent FRRPP systems with spatioselective reaction initiation of lithography, microgel structures were synthesized in a single step, without the use of molds or additives. Hard x-rays from the bending magnet radiation of a synchrotron were used as an initiation source, instead of the more statistally-oriented chemical initiators. Such a spatially-defined reaction was shown to be self-limiting to the irradiated regions following a polymerization-induced self-assembly phenomenon. The pattern transfer aspects of this technique were, therefore, studied in the FRRP polymerization of N-isopropylacrylamide (NIPAm) and methacrylic acid (MAA), a thermoreversible and ionic hydrogel, respectively. Reaction temperature increases the contrast between the exposed and unexposed zones of the formed microgels, while the irradiation dose is directly proportional to the extent of phase separation. The response of Poly (NIPAm) microgels prepared from the technique described in this study was also characterized by small angle neutron scattering.

DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION HARDENABLE AL-SC-ZR-HF QUATERNARY ALLOYS THROUGH THERMODYNAMIC MODELING, AND ROOM-TEMPERATURE AND ELEVATED TEMPERATURE HARDNESS

Aluminum alloyed with small atomic fractions of Sc, Zr, and Hf has been shown to exhibit high temperature microstructural stability that may improve high temperature mechanical behavior. These quaternary alloys were designed using thermodynamic modeling to increase the volume fraction of precipitated tri-aluminide phases to improve thermal stability. When aged during a multi-step, isochronal heat treatment, two compositions showed a secondary room-temperature hardness peak up to 700 MPa at 450°C. Elevated temperature hardness profiles also indicated an increase in hardness from 200-300°C, attributed to the precipitation of Al3Sc, however, no secondary hardness response was observed from the Al3Zr or Al3Hf phases in this alloy.