SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Parameter estimation for transformer modeling

Large Power transformers, an aging and vulnerable part of our energy infrastructure, are at choke points in the grid and are key to reliability and security. Damage or destruction due to vandalism, misoperation, or other unexpected events is of great concern, given replacement costs upward of $2M and lead time of 12 months. Transient overvoltages can cause great damage and there is much interest in improving computer simulation models to correctly predict and avoid the consequences. EMTP (the Electromagnetic Transients Program) has been developed for computer simulation of power system transients. Component models for most equipment have been developed and benchmarked. Power transformers would appear to be simple. However, due to their nonlinear and frequency-dependent behaviors, they can be one of the most complex system components to model. It is imperative that the applied models be appropriate for the range of frequencies and excitation levels that the system experiences. Thus, transformer modeling is not a mature field and newer improved models must be made available. In this work, improved topologically-correct duality-based models are developed for three-phase autotransformers having five-legged, three-legged, and shell-form cores. The main problem in the implementation of detailed models is the lack of complete and reliable data, as no international standard suggests how to measure and calculate parameters. Therefore, parameter estimation methods are developed here to determine the parameters of a given model in cases where available information is incomplete. The transformer nameplate data is required and relative physical dimensions of the core are estimated. The models include a separate representation of each segment of the core, including hysteresis of the core, λ-i saturation characteristic, capacitive effects, and frequency dependency of winding resistance and core loss. Steady-state excitation, and de-energization and re-energization transients are simulated and compared with an earlier-developed BCTRAN-based model. Black start energization cases are also simulated as a means of model evaluation and compared with actual event records. The simulated results using the model developed here are reasonable and more correct than those of the BCTRAN-based model. Simulation accuracy is dependent on the accuracy of the equipment model and its parameters. This work is significant in that it advances existing parameter estimation methods in cases where the available data and measurements are incomplete. The accuracy of EMTP simulation for power systems including three-phase autotransformers is thus enhanced. Theoretical results obtained from this work provide a sound foundation for development of transformer parameter estimation methods using engineering optimization. In addition, it should be possible to refine which information and measurement data are necessary for complete duality-based transformer models. To further refine and develop the models and transformer parameter estimation methods developed here, iterative full-scale laboratory tests using high-voltage and high-power three-phase transformer would be helpful.

Water transport in complex, non-wetting porous layers with applications to water management in low temperature fuel cells

An experimental setup was designed to visualize water percolation inside the porous transport layer, PTL, of proton exchange membrane, PEM, fuel cells and identify the relevant characterization parameters. In parallel with the observation of the water movement, the injection pressure (pressure required to transport water through the PTL) was measured. A new scaling for the drainage in porous media has been proposed based on the ratio between the input and the dissipated energies during percolation. A proportional dependency was obtained between the energy ratio and a non-dimensional time and this relationship is not dependent on the flow regime; stable displacement or capillary fingering. Experimental results show that for different PTL samples (from different manufacturers) the proportionality is different. The identification of this proportionality allows a unique characterization of PTLs with respect to water transport. This scaling has relevance in porous media flows ranging far beyond fuel cells. In parallel with the experimental analysis, a two-dimensional numerical model was developed in order to simulate the phenomena observed in the experiments. The stochastic nature of the pore size distribution, the role of the PTL wettability and morphology properties on the water transport were analyzed. The effect of a second porous layer placed between the porous transport layer and the catalyst layer called microporous layer, MPL, was also studied. It was found that the presence of the MPL significantly reduced the water content on the PTL by enhancing fingering formation. Moreover, the presence of small defects (cracks) within the MPL was shown to enhance water management. Finally, a corroboration of the numerical simulation was carried out. A threedimensional version of the network model was developed mimicking the experimental conditions. The morphology and wettability of the PTL are tuned to the experiment data by using the new energy scaling of drainage in porous media. Once the fit between numerical and experimental data is obtained, the computational PTL structure can be used in different types of simulations where the conditions are representative of the fuel cell operating conditions.

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATIONS OF GENOMIC RESOURCES FOR TWO NORTH AMERICAN HARDWOOD TAXA

Hardwoods comprise about half of the biomass of forestlands in North America and present many uses including economic, ecological and aesthetic functions. Forest trees rely on the genetic variation within tree populations to overcome the many biotic, abiotic, anthropogenic factors which are further worsened by climate change, that threaten their continued survival and functionality. To harness these inherent genetic variations of tree populations, informed knowledge of the genomic resources and techniques, which are currently lacking or very limited, are imperative for forest managers. The current study therefore aimed to develop genomic microsatellite markers for the leguminous tree species, honey locust, Gleditsia triacanthos L. and test their applicability in assessing genetic variation, estimation of gene flow patterns and identification of a full-sib mapping population. We also aimed to test the usefulness of already developed nuclear and gene-based microsatellite markers in delineation of species and taxonomic relationships between four of the taxonomically difficult Section Lobatae species (Quercus coccinea, Q. ellipsoidalis, Q. rubra and Q. velutina. We recorded 100% amplification of G. triacanthos genomic microsatellites developed using Illumina sequencing techniques in a panel of seven unrelated individuals with 14 of these showing high polymorphism and reproducibility. When characterized in 36 natural population samples, we recorded 20 alleles per locus with no indication for null alleles at 13 of the 14 microsatellites. This is the first report of genomic microsatellites for this species. Honey locust trees occur in fragmented populations of abandoned farmlands and pastures and is described as essentially dioecious. Pollen dispersal if the main source of gene flow within and between populations with the ability to offset the effects of random genetic drift. Factors known to influence gene include fragmentation and degree of isolation, which make the patterns gene flow in fragmented populations of honey locust a necessity for their sustainable management. In this follow-up study, we used a subset of nine of the 14 developed gSSRs to estimate gene flow and identify a full-sib mapping population in two isolated fragments of honey locust. Our analyses indicated that the majority of the seedlings (65-100% - at both strict and relaxed assignment thresholds) were sired by pollen from outside the two fragment populations. Only one selfing event was recorded confirming the functional dioeciousness of honey locust and that the seed parents are almost completely outcrossed. From the Butternut Valley, TN population, pollen donor genotypes were reconstructed and used in paternity assignment analyses to identify a relatively large full-sib family comprised of 149 individuals, proving the usefulness of isolated forest fragments in identification of full-sib families. In the Ames Plantation stand, contemporary pollen dispersal followed a fat-tailed exponential-power distribution, an indication of effective gene flow. Our estimate of δ was 4,282.28 m, suggesting that insect pollinators of honey locust disperse pollen over very long distances. The high proportion of pollen influx into our sampled population implies that our fragment population forms part of a large effectively reproducing population. The high tendency of oak species to hybridize while still maintaining their species identity make it difficult to resolve their taxonomic relationships. Oaks of the section Lobatae are famous in this regard and remain unresolved at both morphological and genetic markers. We applied 28 microsatellite markers including outlier loci with potential roles in reproductive isolation and adaptive divergence between species to natural populations of four known interfertile red oaks, Q. coccinea, Q. ellpsoidalis, Q. rubra and Q. velutina. To better resolve the taxonomic relationships in this difficult clade, we assigned individual samples to species, identified hybrids and introgressive forms and reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among the four species after exclusion of genetically intermediate individuals. Genetic assignment analyses identified four distinct species clusters, with Q. rubra most differentiated from the three other species, but also with a comparatively large number of misclassified individuals (7.14%), hybrids (7.14%) and introgressive forms (18.83%) between Q. ellipsoidalis and Q. velutina. After the exclusion of genetically intermediate individuals, Q. ellipsoidalis grouped as sister species to the largely parapatric Q. coccinea with high bootstrap support (91 %). Genetically intermediate forms in a mixed species stand were located proximate to both potential parental species, which supports recent hybridization of Q. velutina with both Q. ellipsoidalis and Q. rubra. Analyses of genome-wide patterns of interspecific differentiation can provide a better understanding of speciation processes and taxonomic relationships in this taxonomically difficult group of red oak species.

WATER RESOURCES, HEALTH, AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF INTERVENTIONS TO ACHIEVE WATER AND SANITATION TARGETS OF THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN A CHANGING WORLD

This dissertation addresses sustainability of rapid provision of safe water and sanitation required to meet the Millennium Development Goals. Review of health-related literature and global statistics demonstrates engineers' role in achieving the MDGs. This review is followed by analyses relating to social, environmental, and health aspects of meeting MDG targets. Analysis of national indicators showed that inadequate investment, poor or nonexistent policies and governance are challenges to global sanitation coverage in addition to lack of financial resources and gender disparity. Although water availability was not found to be a challenge globally, geospatial analysis demonstrated that water availability is a potentially significant barrier for up to 46 million people living in urban areas and relying on already degraded water resources for environmental income. A daily water balance model incorporating the National Resources Conservation Services curve number method in Bolivian watersheds showed that local water stress is linked to climate change because of reduced recharge. Agricultural expansion in the region slightly exacerbates recharge reductions. Although runoff changes will range from -17% to 14%, recharge rates will decrease under all climate scenarios evaluated (-14% to -27%). Increasing sewer coverage may place stress on the readily accessible natural springs, but increased demand can be sustained if other sources of water supply are developed. This analysis provides a method for hydrological analysis in data scarce regions. Data required for the model were either obtained from publicly available data products or by conducting field work using low-cost methods feasible for local participants. Lastly, a methodology was developed to evaluate public health impacts of increased household water access resulting from domestic rainwater harvesting, incorporating knowledge of water requirements of sanitation and hygiene technologies. In 37 West African cities, domestic rainwater harvesting has the potential to reduce diarrheal disease burden by 9%, if implemented alone with 400 L storage. If implemented in conjunction with point of use treatment, this reduction could increase to 16%. The methodology will contribute to cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions as well as evaluations of potential disease burden resulting from reduced water supply, such as reductions observed in the Bolivian communities.

Integrated solar energy and absorption cooling model for HVAC (heating, ventilating, and air conditioning) applications in buildings

The demands in production and associate costs at power generation through non renewable resources are increasing at an alarming rate. Solar energy is one of the renewable resource that has the potential to minimize this increase. Utilization of solar energy have been concentrated mainly on heating application. The use of solar energy in cooling systems in building would benefit greatly achieving the goal of non-renewable energy minimization. The approaches of solar energy heating system research done by initiation such as University of Wisconsin at Madison and building heat flow model research conducted by Oklahoma State University can be used to develop and optimize solar cooling building system. The research uses two approaches to develop a Graphical User Interface (GUI) software for an integrated solar absorption cooling building model, which is capable of simulating and optimizing the absorption cooling system using solar energy as the main energy source to drive the cycle. The software was then put through a number of litmus test to verify its integrity. The litmus test was conducted on various building cooling system data sets of similar applications around the world. The output obtained from the software developed were identical with established experimental results from the data sets used. Software developed by other research are catered for advanced users. The software developed by this research is not only reliable in its code integrity but also through its integrated approach which is catered for new entry users. Hence, this dissertation aims to correctly model a complete building with the absorption cooling system in appropriate climate as a cost effective alternative to conventional vapor compression system.