Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Study of water use and supply in the district of Independencia, Peru

Peru is a developing country with abundant fresh water resources, yet the lack of infrastructure leaves much of the population without access to safe water for domestic uses. The author of this report was a Peace Corps Volunteer in the sector of water & sanitation in the district of Independencia, Ica, Peru. Independencia is located in the arid coastal region of the country, receiving on average 15 mm of rain annually. The water source for this district comes from the Pisco River, originating in the Andean highlands and outflowing into the Pacific Ocean near the town of Pisco, Peru. The objectives of this report are to assess the water supply and sanitation practices, model the existing water distribution system, and make recommendations for future expansion of the distribution system in the district of Independencia, Peru. The assessment of water supply will be based on the results from community surveys done in the district of Independencia, water quality testing done by a detachment of the U.S. Navy, as well as on the results of a hydraulic model built in EPANET 2.0 to represent the distribution system. Sanitation practice assessments will be based on the surveys as well as observations from the author while living in Peru. Recommendations for system expansions will be made based on results from the EPANET model and the municipality’s technical report for the existing distribution system. Household water use and sanitation surveys were conducted with 84 families in the district revealing that upwards of 85% store their domestic water in regularly washed containers with lids. Over 80% of those surveyed are drinking water that is treated, mostly boiled. Of those surveyed, over 95% reported washing their hands and over 60% mentioned at least one critical time for hand washing when asked for specific instances. From the surveys, it was also discovered that over 80% of houses are properly disposing of excrement, in either latrines or septic tanks. There were 43 families interviewed with children five years of age or under, and just over 18% reported the child had a case of diarrhea within the last month at the time of the interview. Finally, from the surveys it was calculated that the average water use per person per day is about 22 liters. Water quality testing carried out by a detachment of the U.S. Navy revealed that the water intended for consumption in the houses surveyed was not suitable for consumption, with a median E. coli most probable number of 47/100 ml for the 61 houses sampled. The median total coliforms was 3,000 colony forming units per 100 ml. EPANET was used to simulate the water delivery system and evaluate its performance. EPANET is designed for continuous water delivery systems, assuming all pipes are always flowing full. To account for the intermittent nature of the system, multiple EPANET network models were created to simulate how water is routed to the different parts of the system throughout the day. The models were created from interviews with the water technicians and a map of the system created using handheld GPS units. The purpose is to analyze the performance of the water system that services approximately 13,276 people in the district of Independencia, Peru, as well as provide recommendations for future growth and improvement of the service level. Performance evaluation of the existing system is based on meeting 25 liters per person per day while maintaining positive pressure at all nodes in the network. The future performance is based on meeting a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, as proposed by Chase (2000). The EPANET model results yield an average nodal pressure for all communities of 71 psi, with a range from 1.3 – 160 psi. Thus, if the current water delivery schedule obtained from the local municipality is followed, all communities should have sufficient pressure to deliver 25 l/p/d, with the exception of Los Rosales, which can only supply 3.25 l/p/d. However, if the line to Los Rosales were increased from one to four inches, the system could supply this community with 25 l/p/d. The district of Independencia could greatly benefit from increasing the service level to 24-hour water delivery and a minimum of 50 l/p/d, so that communities without reliable access due to insufficient pressure would become equal beneficiaries of this invaluable resource. To evaluate the feasibility of this, EPANET was used to model the system with a range of population growth rates, system lifetimes, and demands. In order to meet a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, the 6-inch diameter main line must be increased and approximately two miles of trench must be excavated up to 30 feet deep. The sections of the main line that must be excavated are mile 0-1 and 1.5-2.5, and the first 3.4 miles of the main line must be increased from 6 to 16 inches, contracting to 10 inches for the remaining 5.8 miles. Doing this would allow 24-hour water delivery and provide 50 l/p/d for a range of population growth rates and system lifetimes. It is expected that improving the water delivery service would reduce the morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases by decreasing the recontamination of the water due to transport and household storage, as well as by maintaining continuous pressure in the system to prevent infiltration of contaminated groundwater. However, this expansion must be carefully planned so as not to affect aquatic ecosystems or other districts utilizing water from the Pisco River. It is recommended that stream gaging of the Pisco River and precipitation monitoring of the surrounding watershed is initiated in order to begin a hydrological study that would be integrated into the district’s water resource planning. It is also recommended that the district begin routine water quality testing, with the results available to the public.

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF THE INVASIVE SPECIES CIRSIUM ARVENSE, CANADA THISTLE, AND PHRAGMITES AUSTRALIS, COMMON REED: USING ECOLOGICALLY BASED CONTROL MEASURES AT EACH STAGE OF THE INVASION PROCESS

Invasive plant species threaten natural areas by reducing biodiversity and altering ecosystem functions. They also impact agriculture by reducing crop and livestock productivity. Millions of dollars are spent on invasive species control each year, and traditionally, herbicides are used to manage invasive species. Herbicides have human and environmental health risks associated with them; therefore, it is essential that land managers and stakeholders attempt to reduce these risks by utilizing the principles of integrated weed management. Integrated weed management is a practice that incorporates a variety of measures and focuses on the ecology of the invasive plant to manage it. Roadways are high risk areas that have high incidence of invasive species. Roadways act as conduits for invasive species spread and are ideal harborages for population growth; therefore, roadways should be a primary target for invasive species control. There are four stages in the invasion process which an invasive species must overcome: transport, establishment, spread, and impact. The aim of this dissertation was to focus on these four stages and examine the mechanisms underlying the progression from one stage to the next, while also developing integrated weed management strategies. The target species were Phragmites australis, common reed, and Cisrium arvense, Canada thistle. The transport and establishment risks of P. australis can be reduced by removing rhizome fragments from soil when roadside maintenance is performed. The establishment and spread of C. arvense can be reduced by planting particular resistant species, e.g. Heterotheca villosa, especially those that can reduce light transmittance to the soil. Finally, the spread and impact of C. arvense can be mitigated on roadsides through the use of the herbicide aminopyralid. The risks associated with herbicide drift produced by application equipment can be reduced by using the Wet-Blade herbicide application system.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

A REMOTE SENSING APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZE THE HYDROGEOLOGY OF MOUNTAINOUS AREAS: APPLICATION TO THE QUITO AQUIFER SYSTEM (QAS), ECUADOR

Climate change, intensive use, and population growth are threatening the availability of water resources. New sources of water, better knowledge of existing ones, and improved water management strategies are of paramount importance. Ground water is often considered as primary water source due to its advantages in terms of quantity, spatial distribution, and natural quality. Remote sensing techniques afford scientists a unique opportunity to characterize landscapes in order to assess groundwater resources, particularly in tectonically influenced areas. Aquifers in volcanic basins are considered the most productive aquifers in Latin America. Although topography is considered the primary driving force for groundwater flows in mountainous terrains, tectonic activity increases the complexity of these groundwater systems by altering the integrity of sedimentary rock units and the overlying drainage networks. Structural controls affect the primary hydraulic properties of the rock formations by developing barriers to flow in some cases and zones of preferential infiltration and subterranean in others. The study area focuses on the Quito Aquifer System (QAS) in Ecuador. The characterization of the hydrogeology started with a lineament analysis based on a combined remote sensing and digital terrain analysis approach. The application of classical tools for regional hydrogeological evaluation and shallow geophysical methods were useful to evaluate the impact of faulting and fracturing on the aquifer system. Given the spatial extension of the area and the complexity of the system, two levels of analysis were applied in this study. At the regional level, a lineament map was created for the QAS. Relationships between fractures, faults and lineaments and the configuration of the groundwater flow on the QAS were determined. At the local level, on the Plateaus region of the QAS, a detailed lineament map was obtained by using high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery and aspect map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). This map was complemented by the analysis of morphotectonic indicators and shallow geophysics that characterize fracture patterns. The development of the groundwater flow system was studied, drawing upon data pertaining to the aquifer system physical characteristics and topography. Hydrochemistry was used to ascertain the groundwater evolution and verify the correspondence of the flow patterns proposed in the flow system analysis. Isotopic analysis was employed to verify the origin of groundwater. The results of this study show that tectonism plays a very important role for the hydrology of the QAS. The results also demonstrate that faults influence a great deal of the topographic characteristics of the QAS and subsequently the configuration of the groundwater flow. Moreover, for the Plateaus region, the results demonstrate that the aquifer flow systems are affected by secondary porosity. This is a new conceptualization of the functioning of the aquifers on the QAS that will significantly contribute to the development of better strategies for the management of this important water resource.