The study of agricultural non-point source pollution control policy system

As the agricultural non-point source pollution(ANPSP) has become the most significant threat for water environmental deterioration and lake eutrophication in China, more and more scientists and technologists are focusing on the control countermeasure and pollution mechanism of agricultural non-point source pollution. The unreasonable rural production structure and limited scientific management measures are the main reasons for acute ANSPS problems in China. At present, the problem for pollution control is a lack of specific regulations, which affects the government's management efficiency. According to these characteristics and problems, this paper puts forward some corresponding policies. The status of the agricultural non-point source pollution of China is analyzed, and ANSPS prevention and control model is provided based on governance policy, environmental legislation, technical system and subsidy policy. At last, the case analysis of Qiandao Lake is given, and an economic policy is adopted based on its situation.

A Cost Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Strategies For New Plants In Michigan's Electric Power Sector

This thesis attempts to find the least-cost strategy to reduce CO2 emission by replacing coal by other energy sources for electricity generation in the context of the proposed EPA’s regulation on CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. An ARIMA model is built to forecast coal consumption for electricity generation and its CO2 emissions in Michigan from 2016 to 2020. CO2 emission reduction costs are calculated under three emission reduction scenarios- reduction to 17%, 30% and 50% below the 2005 emission level. The impacts of Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the intermittency of renewable energy are also discussed. The results indicate that in most cases natural gas will be the best alternative to coal for electricity generation to realize CO2 reduction goals; if the PTC for wind power will continue after 2015, a natural gas and wind combination approach could be the best strategy based on the least-cost criterion.

ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF THE BAKKEN, NORTH DAKOTA UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS BASED ON A TYPICAL WELL PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Increases in oil prices after the economic recession have been surprising for domestic oil production in the United States since the beginning of 2009. Not only did the conventional oil extraction increase, but unconventional oil production and exploration also improved greatly with the favorable economic conditions. This favorable economy encourages companies to invest in new reservoirs and technological developments. Recently, enhanced drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have been supporting the domestic economy by way of unconventional shale and tight oil from various U.S. locations. One of the main contributors to this oil boom is the unconventional oil production from the North Dakota Bakken field. Horizontal drilling has increased oil production in the Bakken field, but the economic issues of unconventional oil extraction are still debatable due to volatile oil prices, high decline rates of production, a limited production period, high production costs, and lack of transportation. The economic profitability and viability of the unconventional oil play in the North Dakota Bakken was tested with an economic analysis of average Bakken unconventional well features. Scenario analysis demonstrated that a typical North Dakota Bakken unconventional oil well is profitable and viable as shown by three financial metrics; net present value, internal rate of return, and break-even prices.

Economic viability of shale gas production in the Marcellus Shale; indicated by production rates, costs and current natural gas prices

The U.S. natural gas industry has changed because of the recent ability to produce natural gas from unconventional shale deposits. One of the largest and most important deposits is the Marcellus Shale. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have allowed for the technical feasibility of production, but concerns exist regarding the economics of shale gas production. These concerns are related to limited production and economic data for shale gas wells, declines in the rates of production, falling natural gas prices, oversupply issues coupled with slow growth in U.S. natural gas demand, and rising production costs. An attempt to determine profitability was done through the economic analysis of an average shale gas well using data that is representative of natural gas production from 2009 to 2011 in the Marcellus Shale. Despite the adverse conditions facing the shale gas industry it is concluded from the results of this analysis that a shale gas well in the Marcellus Shale is profitable based on NPV, IRR and breakeven price calculations.

The Domestic Natural Gas Shortage in China

This thesis analyzes the domestic shortage in the Chinese natural gas market. Both the domestic supply and demand of natural gas are growing fast in China. However, the supply cannot catch up with the demand. Under the present pricing mechanism, the Chinese natural gas market cannot get the equilibrium by itself. Expensive imports are inadequate to fill the increasing gap between the domestic demand and supply. Therefore, the shortage problem occurs. Since the energy gap can result in the arrested development of economics, the shortage problem need to be solved. This thesis gives three suggestions to solve the problem: the use of Unconventional Gas, Natural Gas Storage and Pricing Reform.

Economic sustainability of the Flambeau Mine Ladysmith, Wisconsin

Today sustainable development is a very pertinent issue. Communities do not want companies, specifically mining companies, to deplete a natural resource and leave. The goal is to minimize the negative impacts of mining and the boom/bust cycles of natural resource extraction. In this study a three part framework was developed to analyze the sustainability of the Flambeau Mine in Ladysmith, Wisconsin. The first and second part dealt with an in-depth local and regional analysis and whether the community was developing within its own vision. The third part used nine sustainability measures including: 1. Need Present Generation 2. Future Need 3. Acceptable Legacy 4. Full-Cost 5. Contribution to Economic Development 6. Equity 7. Consent 8. Respect for Ecological Limits, Maintenance of Ecological Integrity and Landscape Requirements 9. Offsetting Restoration This study concluded that the Flambeau Mine was sustainable relative to the first two criteria and that it can be considered mostly sustainable relative to the nine criteria. Overall it can be stated that the Flambeau Mine was a beneficial project to the Ladysmith Wisconsin area. Additionally it appeared to decrease the public’s negative perception of mining. Recommendations for future analytical work are made. Suggestions are made as to how mining companies could increase the potential for the attainment of sustainability in projects. It is recommended that this framework be used by other industries.

Public preferences of the Great Lakes Environment : a Lake Michigan pilot study

The Great Lakes watershed is home to over 40 million people, and the health of the Great Lakes ecosystem is vital to the overall economic, societal, and environmental health of the U.S. and Canada. However, environmental issues related to them are sometimes overlooked. Policymakers and the public face the challenges of balancing economic benefits with the need to conserve and/or replenish regional natural resources to ensure long term prosperity. From the literature review, nine critical stressors of ecological services were delineated, which include pollution and contamination, agricultural erosion, non-native species, degraded recreational resources, loss of wetlands habitat, climate change, risk of clean water shortage, vanishing sand dunes, and population overcrowding; this list was validated through a series of stakeholder discussions and focus groups in Grand Rapids. Focus groups were conducted in Grand Rapids to examine the awareness of, concern with, and willingness to expend resources on these stressors. Stressors that the respondents have direct contact with tend to be the most important. The focus group results show that concern related to pollution and contamination is much higher than for any of the other stressors. Low responses to climate change result in recommendations for outreach programs.

A STUDY ON REGIONAL CIRCULAR ECONOMY SYSTEM AND ITS CONSTRUCTION, OPERATION AND SUGGESTION FOR SHANGHAI

The characteristics of the traditional linear economic model are high consumption, high emission and low efficiency. Economic development is still largely at the expense of the environment and requires a natural resource investment. This can realize rapid economic development but resource depletion and environmental pollution become increasingly serious. In the 1990's a new economic model, circular economics, began to enter our vision. The circular economy maximizes production and minimizes the impact of economic activities on the ecological environment through organizing the activities through the closed-loop feedback cycle of "resources - production - renewable resource". Circular economy is a better way to solve the contradictions between the economic development and resource shortages. Developing circular economy has become the major strategic initiatives to achieving sustainable development in countries all over the world. The evaluation of the development of circular economics is a necessary step for regional circular economy development. Having a quantitative evaluation of circular economy can better monitor and reveal the contradictions and problems in the process of the development of recycling economy. This thesis will: 1) Create an evaluation model framework and new types of industries and 2) Make an evaluation of the Shanghai circular economy currently to analyze the situation of Shanghai in the development of circular economy. I will then propose suggestions about the structure and development of Shanghai circular economy.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Afghanistan connection : heroin production, distribution, and consumption

Heroin prices are a reflection of supply and demand, and similar to any other market, profits motivate participation. The intent of this research is to examine the change in Afghan opium production due to political conflict affecting Europe’s heroin market and government policies. If the Taliban remain in power, or a new Afghan government is formed, the changes will affect the heroin market in Europe to a certain degree. In the heroin market, the degree of change is dependent on many socioeconomic forces such as law enforcement, corruption, and proximity to Afghanistan. An econometric model that examines the degree of these socioeconomic effects has not been applied to the heroin trade in Afghanistan before. This research uses a two-stage least squares econometric model to reveal the supply and demand of heroin in 36 different countries from the Middle East to Western Europe in 2008. An application of the two-stage least squares model to the heroin market in Europe will attempt to predict the socioeconomic consequences of Afghanistan opium production.

Financial decision making about found oil and gas in Ghana : real options vs. traditional methods

This research is a study of the use of capital budgeting methods for investment decisions. It uses both the traditional methods and the newly introduced approach called the real options analysis to make a decision. The research elucidates how capital budgeting can be done when analysts encounter projects with high uncertainty and are capital intensive, for example oil and gas production. It then uses the oil and gas find in Ghana as a case study to support its argument. For a clear understanding a thorough literature review was done, which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. The revenue that the project will generate and the costs of production were obtained from the predictions by analysts from GNPC and compared to others experts’ opinion. It then applied both the traditional and real option valuation on the oil and gas find in Ghana to determine the project’s feasibility. Although, there are some short falls in real option analysis that are presented in this research, it is still helpful in valuing projects that are capital intensive with high volatility due to the strategic flexibility management possess in their decision making. It also suggests that traditional methods of evaluation should still be maintained and be used to value projects that have no options or those with options yet the options do not have significant impact on the project. The research points out the economic ripples the production of oil and gas will have on Ghana’s economy should the project be undertaken. These ripples include economic growth, massive job creation and reduction of the balance of trade deficit for the country. The long run effect is an eventually improvement of life of the citizens. It is also belief that the production of gas specifically can be used to generate electricity in Ghana which would enable the country to have a more stable and reliable power source necessary to attract more foreign direct investment.

Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China

A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.

IS THE U.S. SHALE GAS BOOM HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE EUROPEAN GAS MARKET?

This thesis focuses on the impact of the American shale gas boom on the European natural gas market. The study presents different tests in order to analyze the dynamics of natural gas prices in the U.S., U.K. and German natural gas market. The question of cointegration between these different markets are analyzed using several tests. More specifically, the ADF tests for the presence of a unit root. The error correction model test and the Johansen cointegration procedure are applied in order to accept or reject the hypothesis of an integrated market. The results suggest no evidence of cointegration between these markets. There currently is no evidence of an impact of the U.S. shale gas boom on the European market.

Spatial and temporal patterns in ungulate-ecosystem interactions

Ungulates are important components of a variety of ecosystems worldwide. This dissertation integrates aspects of ungulate and forest ecology to increase our understanding of how they work together in ways that are of interest to natural resource managers, educators, and those who are simply curious about nature. Although animal ecology and ecosystem ecology are often studied separately, one of the general goals of this dissertation is to examine how they interact across spatial and temporal scales. Forest ecosystems are heterogeneous across a range of scales. Spatial and temporal habitat use patterns of forest ungulates tend to be congregated in patches where food and/or cover are readily available. Ungulates interact with ecosystem processes by selectively foraging on plants and excreting waste products in concentrated patches. Positive feedbacks may develop where these activities increase the value of habitat through soil fertilization or the alteration of plant chemistry and architecture. Heterogeneity in ecosystem processes and plant community structure, observed at both stand and local scales, may be the integrated outcome of feedbacks between ungulate behavior and abiotic resource gradients. The first chapter of this dissertation briefly discusses pertinent background information on ungulate ecology, with a focus on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Upper Great Lakes region and moose (Alces acles) in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA. The second chapter demonstrates why ecological context is important for studying ungulate ecology in forest ecosystems. Excluding deer from eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) stands, which deer use primarily as winter cover, resulted in less spatial complexity in soil reactive nitrogen and greater complexity in diffuse light compared to unfenced stands. The spatial patterning of herbaceous-layer cover was more similar to nitrogen where deer were present, and was a combination of nitrogen and light within deer exclosures. This relationship depends on the seasonal timing of deer habitat use because deer fertilize the soil during winter, but leave during the growing season. The third chapter draws upon an eight-year, 39-stand data set of deer fecal pellet counts in hemlock stands to estimate the amount of nitrogen that deer are depositing in hemlock stands each winter. In stands of high winter deer use, deer-excreted nitrogen inputs consistently exceeded those of atmospheric deposition at the stand scale. At the neighborhood scale, deer-excreted nitrogen was often in excess of atmospheric deposition due to the patchy distribution of deer habitat use. Spatial patterns in habitat use were consistent over the eight-year study at both stand and neighborhood scales. The fourth chapter explores how foraging selectivity by moose interacts with an abiotic resource gradient to influence forest structure and composition. Soil depth on Isle Royale varies from east to west according to glacial history. Fir saplings growing in deeper soils on the west side are generally more palatable forage for moose (lower foliar C:N) than those growing in shallower soils on the east side. Therefore, saplings growing in better conditions are less likely to reach the canopy due to moose browsing, and fir is a smaller overstory component on the west side. Lastly, chapter five focuses on issues surrounding eastern hemlock regeneration failure, which is a habitat type that is important to many wildlife species. Increasing hemlock on the landscape is complicated by several factors including disturbance regime and climate change, in addition to the influence of deer.