STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

UNDERSTANDING FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS AND THE EFFECTS OF SHEA TREE Vitellaria paradoxa DISTRIBUTION IN AGROFORESTRY PARKLANDS OF THE UPPER WEST REGION, GHANA

Agroforestry parklands represent a vast majority of the agricultural landscape under subsistent-oriented farming in semi-arid West Africa. Parklands are characterized by the growth of well- maintained trees (e.g., shea) on cultivated fields as a result of both environmental and human influences. Shea (Vitellaria paradoxa) provides a cultural and economic benefit to the local people of Ghana, especially women. Periods between traditional fallow rotation systems have reduced recently due to agricultural development and a demand for higher production. As a result, shea trees, which regenerate during fallow periods, has decreased over the landscape. The aim of this study was to determine beneficial spatial distributions of V. paradoxa to maintain high yields of staple crops, and how management of V. paradoxa will differ between male and female farmers as a result of farmer based needs and use of shea. Vegetation growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays) associated with individual trees, clumped trees, and open fields were measured. Soil moisture and light availability were also measured to determine how V. paradoxa affected resource availability of maize in either clumped or scattered distributions of V. paradoxa. As expected, light availability increased as measurement locations moved farther away from all trees. However, soil moisture was actually greater under trees in clumps than under individual trees. Maize stalk height and cob length showed no difference between clumped and single trees at each measurement location. Grain yield per plot and per cob increased as measurement locations moved farther from single trees, but was actually greater near clumped trees that in the open field subplots. Cob length and maize stalk height increased with greater light availability, but grain yield per cob or per plot showed no relationship with light, but were not affected by soil moisture. Conversely, grain yield increased with increasing soil moisture, but had no relationship with light availability. Initial farming capital is the largest constraint to female farmers; therefore the collection of shea can help provide women with added income that could meet their specific farming needs. Our data indicate that overall effects of maintaining clumped distributions of V. paradoxa provided beneficial microclimates for staple crops when compared to single trees. It is recommended that male and female farmers allow shea to grow in clumped spatial distributions rather than maintaining scattered, individual trees.

VOLUME YIELDS OF SMALLHOLDER Eucalyptus grandis W. HILL EX MAIDEN STANDS IN EASTERN PARAGUAY

Smallholders in eastern Paraguay plant small stands of Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill ex Maiden intended for sale on the local market. Smallholders have been encouraged to plant E. grandis by local forestry extension agents who offer both forestry education and incentive programs. Smallholders who practice recommended forestry techniques geared towards growing large diameter trees of good form are financially rewarded by the local markets which desire saw log quality trees. The question was posed, are smallholders engaging in recommended silvicultural practices and producing reasonable volume yields? It was hypothesized that smallholders, having received forestry education and having financial incentives from the local market, would engage in silvicultural practices resulting in trees of good form and volume yields that were reasonable for the local climate and soil characteristics. Yield volume results from this study support this hypothesis. Mean volume yield was estimated at 70 cubic meters per hectare at age four and 225 cubic meters per hectare at age eight. These volume yields compare favorably to volume yields from other studies of E. grandis grown in similar climates, with similar stocking levels and site qualities.

EVALUATION AND MONITORING OF ASH (FRAXINUS SPP.) TOLERANT TO LONG-TERM EMERALD ASH BORER (AGRILUS PLANIPENNIS [COLEOPTERA: BUPRESTIDAE]) EXPOSURE

Invasive insects that successfully establish in introduced areas can significantly alter natural communities. These pests require specific establishment criteria (e.g. host suitability) that, when known, can help quantify potential damage to infested areas. Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis [Coleoptera: Buprestidae]) is an invasive phloem-feeding pest which is responsible for the death of millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp. L.). Over 200 surviving ash trees were previously identified in the Huron-Clinton Metroparks located in southeast Michigan. Trees were assessed over a four year period and a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed on dieback, vigor, and presence of signs and symptoms, in order to place trees into one of three tolerance groups. The clustering of trees with different responses to emerald ash borer attack suggests that there are different tolerance levels in North American ash trees in southeastern Michigan, and these groups were designated as apparently tolerant, not tolerant and intermediate tolerance. Adult landing rates and evidence of adult emergence were significantly lower in the apparently tolerant group compared with the not tolerant group, but larval survival from eggs placed on trees did not differ between tolerance groups. Therefore, it appears that apparently tolerant trees survive because they are less attractive to adult beetles which results in fewer eggs being laid on them. Trees in the apparently tolerant group remained of higher vigor over the four years of the study. North American ash may survive the emerald ash borer epidemic due to natural variation and inherent resistance regardless of the lack of co-evolutionary history with emerald ash borer.

APPLICATION OF AN IMPUTATION METHOD FOR GEOSPATIAL INVENTORY OF FOREST STRUCTURAL ATTRIBUTES ACROSS MULTIPLE SPATIAL SCALES IN THE LAKE STATES, U.S.A.

Credible spatial information characterizing the structure and site quality of forests is critical to sustainable forest management and planning, especially given the increasing demands and threats to forest products and services. Forest managers and planners are required to evaluate forest conditions over a broad range of scales, contingent on operational or reporting requirements. Traditionally, forest inventory estimates are generated via a design-based approach that involves generalizing sample plot measurements to characterize an unknown population across a larger area of interest. However, field plot measurements are costly and as a consequence spatial coverage is limited. Remote sensing technologies have shown remarkable success in augmenting limited sample plot data to generate stand- and landscape-level spatial predictions of forest inventory attributes. Further enhancement of forest inventory approaches that couple field measurements with cutting edge remotely sensed and geospatial datasets are essential to sustainable forest management. We evaluated a novel Random Forest based k Nearest Neighbors (RF-kNN) imputation approach to couple remote sensing and geospatial data with field inventory collected by different sampling methods to generate forest inventory information across large spatial extents. The forest inventory data collected by the FIA program of US Forest Service was integrated with optical remote sensing and other geospatial datasets to produce biomass distribution maps for a part of the Lake States and species-specific site index maps for the entire Lake State. Targeting small-area application of the state-of-art remote sensing, LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data was integrated with the field data collected by an inexpensive method, called variable plot sampling, in the Ford Forest of Michigan Tech to derive standing volume map in a cost-effective way. The outputs of the RF-kNN imputation were compared with independent validation datasets and extant map products based on different sampling and modeling strategies. The RF-kNN modeling approach was found to be very effective, especially for large-area estimation, and produced results statistically equivalent to the field observations or the estimates derived from secondary data sources. The models are useful to resource managers for operational and strategic purposes.

Evaluating Karner Blue Butterfly (Lycaeides Melissa Samuelis Nabokov) Habitat Selection in the State of Wisconsin, USA

The federally endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis Nabokov) persists in rare oak/pine grassland communities spanning across the Great Lakes region, relying on host plant wild blue lupine (Lupinus perennis). Conservation efforts since 1992 have led to the development of several programs that restore and monitor habitat. This study aims to evaluate Karner blue habitat selection in the state of Wisconsin and develop high-resolution tools for use in conservation efforts. Spatial predictive models developed during this study accurately predicted potential habitat across state properties based on soils and canopy cover, and identified ~51-100% of Karner blue occurrences based on lupine and shrub/tree cover, and focal nectar plant abundance. When evaluated relative to American bison (Bison bison), Karner blues and lupine were more likely to occur in areas of low disturbance, but aggregated where bison were recently present in areas of moderate/high disturbance. Lupine C:N ratio increased relative to cover of shrubs/trees and focal nectar plant abundance and decreased relative to cover of groundlitter. Karner blue density increased with lupine C:N ratio, decreased with nitrogen content, and was not related to phenolic levels. We strongly suggest that areas of different soil textures must be managed differently and that maintenance techniques should generate a mix of shrubs/tree cover (10-45%), groundlitter cover (~10-40%), >5% cover of lupine, and establish an abundance of focal nectar plants. This study provides unique tools for use in conservation and should aid in focusing management efforts and recovery of this species.

REVIEW OF FACTORS AFFECTING SUSTAINABILITY IN THE UNIVERSITIES

Purpose – The focus of this research is to find out a meaningful relationship between adopting sustainability practices and some of the characteristics of institutions of higher education (IHE). IHE can be considered as the best place to promote sustainability and develop the culture of sustainability in society. Thus, this research is conducted to help developing sustainability in IHE which have significant direct and indirect impact on society and the environment. Design/methodology/approach – First, the sustainability letter grades were derived from “Greenreportcard.org” which have been produced based on an evaluation of each school in nine main categories including: Administration, Climate Change & Energy, Food & Recycling, etc. In the next step, the characteristics of IHE as explanatory variables were chosen from “The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System” (IPEDS) and respective database was implemented in STATA Software. Finally, the “ordered-Probit Model” is used through STATA to analyze the impact of some IHE’s factor on adopting sustainability practices on campus. Finding - The results of this analysis indicate that variables related to “Financial support” category are the most influential factors in determining the sustainability status of the university. “The university features” with two significant variables for “Selectivity” and “Top 50 LA” can be classified as the second influential category in this table, although the “Student influence” is also eligible to be ranked as the second important factor. Finally, the “Location feature” of university was determined with the least influential impact on the sustainability of campuses. Originality/value – Understanding the factors which influence adopting sustainability practices in IHE is an important issue to develop more effective sustainability’s methods and policies.