Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.

Assessing Decision Making Skill in Complex and Dynamic Environments Using Representative and Simulated Tasks

Traditional decision making research has often focused on one's ability to choose from a set of prefixed options, ignoring the process by which decision makers generate courses of action (i.e., options) in-situ (Klein, 1993). In complex and dynamic domains, this option generation process is particularly critical to understanding how successful decisions are made (Zsambok & Klein, 1997). When generating response options for oneself to pursue (i.e., during the intervention-phase of decision making) previous research has supported quick and intuitive heuristics, such as the Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003). When generating predictive options for others in the environment (i.e., during the assessment-phase of decision making), previous research has supported the situational-model-building process described by Long Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; see Ward, Ericsson, & Williams, 2013). In the first three experiments, the claims of TTF and LTWM are tested during assessment- and intervention-phase tasks in soccer. To test what other environmental constraints may dictate the use of these cognitive mechanisms, the claims of these models are also tested in the presence and absence of time pressure. In addition to understanding the option generation process, it is important that researchers in complex and dynamic domains also develop tools that can be used by `real-world' professionals. For this reason, three more experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a new online assessment of perceptual-cognitive skill in soccer. This test differentiated between skill groups and predicted performance on a previously established test and predicted option generation behavior. The test also outperformed domain-general cognitive tests, but not a domain-specific knowledge test when predicting skill group membership. Implications for theory and training, and future directions for the development of applied tools are discussed.

Preparing writing centers and tutors for literacy mediation for working class campus-staff

Writing centers work with writers; traditionally services have been focused on undergraduates taking composition classes. More recently, centers have started to attract a wider client base including: students taking labs that require writing; graduate students; and ESL students learning the conventions of U.S. communication. There are very few centers, however, which identify themselves as open to working with all members of the campus-community. Michigan Technological University has one such center. In the Michigan Tech writing center, doors are open to “all students, faculty and staff.” While graduate students, post docs, and professors preparing articles for publication have used the center, for the first time in the collective memory of the center UAW staff members requested center appointments in the summer of 2008. These working class employees were in the process of filling out a work related document, the UAW Position Audit, an approximately seven-page form. This form was their one avenue for requesting a review of the job they were doing; the review was the first step in requesting a raise in job level and pay. This study grew out of the realization that implicit literacy expectations between working class United Auto Workers (UAW) staff and professional class staff were complicating the filling out and filing of the position audit form. Professional class supervisors had designed the form as a measure of fairness, in that each UAW employee on campus was responding to the same set of questions about their work. However, the implicit literacy expectations of supervisors were different from those of many of the employees who were to fill out the form. As a result, questions that were meant to be straightforward to answer were in the eyes of the employees filling out the form, complex. Before coming to the writing center UAW staff had spent months writing out responses to the form; they expressed concerns that their responses still would not meet audience expectations. These writers recognized that they did not yet know exactly what the audience was expecting. The results of this study include a framework for planning writing center sessions that facilitate the acquisition of literacy practices which are new to the user. One important realization from this dissertation is that the social nature of literacy must be kept in the forefront when both planning sessions and when educating tutors to lead these sessions. Literacy scholars such as James Paul Gee, Brian Street, and Shirley Brice Heath are used to show that a person can only know those literacy practices that they have previously acquired. In order to acquire new literacy practices, a person must have social opportunities for hands-on practice and mentoring from someone with experience. The writing center can adapt theory and practices from this dissertation that will facilitate sessions for a range of writers wishing to learn “new” literacy practices. This study also calls for specific changes to writing center tutor education.

Reducing main memory access latency through SDRAM address mapping techniques and access reordering mechanisms

As the performance gap between microprocessors and memory continues to increase, main memory accesses result in long latencies which become a factor limiting system performance. Previous studies show that main memory access streams contain significant localities and SDRAM devices provide parallelism through multiple banks and channels. These locality and parallelism have not been exploited thoroughly by conventional memory controllers. In this thesis, SDRAM address mapping techniques and memory access reordering mechanisms are studied and applied to memory controller design with the goal of reducing observed main memory access latency. The proposed bit-reversal address mapping attempts to distribute main memory accesses evenly in the SDRAM address space to enable bank parallelism. As memory accesses to unique banks are interleaved, the access latencies are partially hidden and therefore reduced. With the consideration of cache conflict misses, bit-reversal address mapping is able to direct potential row conflicts to different banks, further improving the performance. The proposed burst scheduling is a novel access reordering mechanism, which creates bursts by clustering accesses directed to the same rows of the same banks. Subjected to a threshold, reads are allowed to preempt writes and qualified writes are piggybacked at the end of the bursts. A sophisticated access scheduler selects accesses based on priorities and interleaves accesses to maximize the SDRAM data bus utilization. Consequentially burst scheduling reduces row conflict rate, increasing and exploiting the available row locality. Using a revised SimpleScalar and M5 simulator, both techniques are evaluated and compared with existing academic and industrial solutions. With SPEC CPU2000 benchmarks, bit-reversal reduces the execution time by 14% on average over traditional page interleaving address mapping. Burst scheduling also achieves a 15% reduction in execution time over conventional bank in order scheduling. Working constructively together, bit-reversal and burst scheduling successfully achieve a 19% speedup across simulated benchmarks.

Memory resource balancing for virtualized computing

Virtualization has become a common abstraction layer in modern data centers. By multiplexing hardware resources into multiple virtual machines (VMs) and thus enabling several operating systems to run on the same physical platform simultaneously, it can effectively reduce power consumption and building size or improve security by isolating VMs. In a virtualized system, memory resource management plays a critical role in achieving high resource utilization and performance. Insufficient memory allocation to a VM will degrade its performance dramatically. On the contrary, over-allocation causes waste of memory resources. Meanwhile, a VM’s memory demand may vary significantly. As a result, effective memory resource management calls for a dynamic memory balancer, which, ideally, can adjust memory allocation in a timely manner for each VM based on their current memory demand and thus achieve the best memory utilization and the optimal overall performance. In order to estimate the memory demand of each VM and to arbitrate possible memory resource contention, a widely proposed approach is to construct an LRU-based miss ratio curve (MRC), which provides not only the current working set size (WSS) but also the correlation between performance and the target memory allocation size. Unfortunately, the cost of constructing an MRC is nontrivial. In this dissertation, we first present a low overhead LRU-based memory demand tracking scheme, which includes three orthogonal optimizations: AVL-based LRU organization, dynamic hot set sizing and intermittent memory tracking. Our evaluation results show that, for the whole SPEC CPU 2006 benchmark suite, after applying the three optimizing techniques, the mean overhead of MRC construction is lowered from 173% to only 2%. Based on current WSS, we then predict its trend in the near future and take different strategies for different prediction results. When there is a sufficient amount of physical memory on the host, it locally balances its memory resource for the VMs. Once the local memory resource is insufficient and the memory pressure is predicted to sustain for a sufficiently long time, a relatively expensive solution, VM live migration, is used to move one or more VMs from the hot host to other host(s). Finally, for transient memory pressure, a remote cache is used to alleviate the temporary performance penalty. Our experimental results show that this design achieves 49% center-wide speedup.