Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

The effects of soil moisture, field-scale toposequential position, and slope on yields in irrigated upland rice fields in Flores, Comayagua, Honduras

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is an important cash crop in Honduras because of the rice lobby’s size, willingness to protest, and ability to negotiate favorable price guarantees on a year-to-year basis. Despite the availability of inexpensive irrigation in the study area in Flores, La Villa de San Antonio, Comayagua, the rice farmers do not cultivate the crop using prescribed methods such as land leveling, puddling, and water conservation structures. Soil moisture (Volumetric Water Content) was measured using a soil moisture probe after the termination of the first irrigation within the tillering/vegetative, panicle emergence/flowering, post-flowering/pre-maturation and maturation stages. Yield data was obtained by harvesting on 1 m2 plots in each soil moisture testing site. Data was analyzed to find the influence of toposequential position along transects, slope, soil moisture, and farmers on yields. The results showed that toposequential position was more important than slope and soil moisture on yields. Soil moisture was not a significant predictor of rice yields. Irrigation politics, precipitation, and land tenure were proposed as the major explanatory variables for this result.

Detecting changes in surface moisture and water table position with spectral changes in surface vegetation in northern peatlands

Due to warmer and drier conditions, wildland fire has been increasing in extent into peatland ecosystems during recent decades. As such, there is an increasing need for broadly applicable tools to detect surface peat moisture, in order to ascertain the susceptibility of peat burning, and the vulnerability of deep peat consumption in the event of a wildfire. In this thesis, a field portable spectroradiometer was used to measure surface reflectance of two Sphagnum moss dominated peatlands. Relationships were developed correlating spectral indices to surface moisture as well as water table position. Spectral convolutions were also applied to the high resolution spectra to represent spectral sensitivity of earth observing sensors. Band ratios previously used to monitor surface moisture with these sensors were assessed. Strong relationships to surface moisture and water table position are evident for both the narrowband indices as well as broadened indices. This study also found a dependence of certain spectral relationships on changes in vegetation cover by leveraging an experimental vegetation manipulation. Results indicate broadened indices employing the 1450-1650 nm region may be less stable under changing vegetation cover than those located in the 1200 nm region.

DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND PARAMETERIZATION OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR SEDIMENT PHOSPHORUS DIAGENESIS, SORPTION AND RELEASE FROM ONONDAGA LAKE SYRACUSE, NEW YORK

Eutrophication is a persistent problem in many fresh water lakes. Delay in lake recovery following reductions in external loading of phosphorus, the limiting nutrient in fresh water ecosystems, is often observed. Models have been created to assist with lake remediation efforts, however, the application of management tools to sediment diagenesis is often neglected due to conceptual and mathematical complexity. SED2K (Chapra et al. 2012) is proposed as a "middle way", offering engineering rigor while being accessible to users. An objective of this research is to further support the development and application SED2K for sediment phosphorus diagenesis and release to the water column of Onondaga Lake. Application of SED2K has been made to eutrophic Lake Alice in Minnesota. The more homogenous sediment characteristics of Lake Alice, compared with the industrially polluted sediment layers of Onondaga Lake, allowed for an invariant rate coefficient to be applied to describe first order decay kinetics of phosphorus. When a similar approach was attempted on Onondaga Lake an invariant rate coefficient failed to simulate the sediment phosphorus profile. Therefore, labile P was accounted for by progressive preservation after burial and a rate coefficient which gradual decreased with depth was applied. In this study, profile sediment samples were chemically extracted into five operationally-defined fractions: CaCO3-P, Fe/Al-P, Biogenic-P, Ca Mineral-P and Residual-P. Chemical fractionation data, from this study, showed that preservation is not the only mechanism by which phosphorus may be maintained in a non-reactive state in the profile. Sorption has been shown to contribute substantially to P burial within the profile. A new kinetic approach involving partitioning of P into process based fractions is applied here. Results from this approach indicate that labile P (Ca Mineral and Organic P) is contributing to internal P loading to Onondaga Lake, through diagenesis and diffusion to the water column, while the sorbed P fraction (Fe/Al-P and CaCO3-P) is remaining consistent. Sediment profile concentrations of labile and total phosphorus at time of deposition were also modeled and compared with current labile and total phosphorus, to quantify the extent to which remaining phosphorus which will continue to contribute to internal P loading and influence the trophic status of Onondaga Lake. Results presented here also allowed for estimation of the depth of the active sediment layer and the attendant response time as well as the sediment burden of labile P and associated efflux.

Evaluating the relationship between moisture induced expansion and horizontal stress orientation in samples from the nonesuch formation

High horizontal stresses can cause numerous ground control problems in mines and other underground structures ultimately impacting worker safety, productivity and the economics of an underground operation. Mine layout and design can be optimized when the presence and orientation of these stresses are recognized and their impact minimized. A simple technique for correlating the principal horizontal stress direction in a sedimentary rock mass with the preferential orientation of moisture induced expansion in a sample of the same rock was introduced in the 1970s and has since gone un-reported and unused. This procedure was reexamined at a locality near the original test site at White Pine, Michigan in order to validate the original research and to consider its usefulness in mining and civil engineering applications in high horizontal stress conditions. This procedure may also be useful as an economical means for characterizing regional stress fields.