Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

SO2 emissions at Volcan de Colima, 2003-2007

Volcán de Colima has been continuously erupting since the onset of dome growth in 1998. This period of unrest has had 4 prominent periods; 1998-1999, 2003, 2004-2005, and the current dome growth that began in February of 2007. Each of these episodes was marked by lava extrusion forming a dome and lava flows, followed by explosions that destroyed the dome. The Correlation Spectrometer (COSPEC) was used to determine SO2 emission rates on 164 days from May 2003 to February 2007, using both stationary ground based scans and some flight traverses. Scans were separated into the categories of explosive degassing and passive, or background degassing. These scans show variation in the SO2 flow rate from below detection limit (~3 t/d depending on environmental conditions) during background, passive emissions to a peak of 2949 t/d (34 kilograms/second) during an explosion on 9 October, 2004. Both passive and explosive degassing increased when there was lava extrusion in 2004 and with the increased explosive activity in 2005. These two different processes of degassing wax with each other when activity increases and wane together as well, indicating a parallel cyclicity in the volcanic eruption and degassing rates, where the conduit partially seals (pressurizes) between explosions. Colima’s gas and eruptive behavior is compared to similar systems such as Santiaguito and Soufrière Hills, Montserrat. About 2/3 of Colima’s SO2 degassing, amounting to 1.3 x 105 tonnes in 3.74 yrs has come in short lived small (VEI=0-1) vertical explosions that occurred at the rate of 100-3000explosions/ month, and the remaining third has occured in continuous passive degassing. Colima emits sulfur at a rate equivalent to about 0.04 to 0.08 wt % S, similar to other andesitic convergent plate boundary volcanoes. There has been an explosive destruction of the dome in every cycle for that past 5 years, and it is assumed that the current dome which began growth in February, 2007 (just at the end of this study) will be destroyed. Higher emission rates seen in the quiescence of 2006 may have eased the pressure at the time, resulting in the slow effusion of the current dome and lack of explosivity.

Benson's Theorem for Partial Geometries

In 1970 Clark Benson published a theorem in the Journal of Algebra stating a congruence for generalized quadrangles. Since then this theorem has been expanded to other specific geometries. In this thesis the theorem for partial geometries is extended to develop new divisibility conditions for the existence of a partial geometry in Chapter 2. Then in Chapter 3 the theorem is applied to higher dimensional arcs resulting in parameter restrictions on geometries derived from these structures. In Chapter 4 we look at extending previous work with partial geometries with α = 2 to uncover potential partial geometries with higher values of α. Finally the theorem is extended to strongly regular graphs in Chapter 5. In addition we obtain expressions for the multiplicities of the eigenvalues of matrices related to the adjacency matrices of these graphs. Finally, a four lesson high school level enrichment unit is included to provide students at this level with an introduction to partial geometries, strongly regular graphs, and an opportunity to develop proof skills in this new context.