Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Resource management in location aware cognitive radio networks

Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) aims at utilizing spectral opportunities both in time and frequency domains at any given location, which arise due to variations in spectrum usage. Recently, Cognitive radios (CRs) have been proposed as a means of implementing DSA. In this work we focus on the aspect of resource management in overlaid CRNs. We formulate resource allocation strategies for cognitive radio networks (CRNs) as mathematical optimization problems. Specifically, we focus on two key problems in resource management: Sum Rate Maximization and Maximization of Number of Admitted Users. Since both the above mentioned problems are NP hard due to presence of binary assignment variables, we propose novel graph based algorithms to optimally solve these problems. Further, we analyze the impact of location awareness on network performance of CRNs by considering three cases: Full location Aware, Partial location Aware and Non location Aware. Our results clearly show that location awareness has significant impact on performance of overlaid CRNs and leads to increase in spectrum utilization effciency.

BUILDING A DISCOURSE: BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN NEW MEDIA'S CONVERGENCE AND RHETORIC AND COMPOSITION'S MULTIMODALITY

My dissertation emphasizes the use of narrative structuralism and narrative theories about storytelling in order to build a discourse between the fields of New Media and Rhetoric and Composition. Propp's morphological analysis and the breaking down of stories into component pieces aides in the discussion of storytelling as it appears in and is mediated by digital and computer technologies. New Media and Rhetoric and Composition are aided by shared concerns for textual production and consumption. In using the notion of "kairotic reading" (KR), I show the interconnectedness and interdisciplinarity required in the development of pedagogy utilized to teach students to develop into reflective practitioners that are aware of their rhetorical surroundings and can made sound judgments concerning their own message generation and consumption in the workplace. KR is a transferable skill that is beneficial to students and teachers alike. The dissertation research utilizes theories of New Media and New Media-influenced practitioners, including Jenkins' theory of convergence, Bourdieu's notion of taste, Gee's term "semiotic domains," and Manovich's "modification." These theoretical pieces are combined in order to show how KR can be extended by convergent narrative practices. In order to build connections with New Media, the consideration and inclusion of Kress and van Leeuwen's multimodality, Selber's "reflective practitioners," and Selfe's definition of multimodal composing allow for a greater establishment of conversation order to create a richer conversation around the implications of metacognitive development and practitioner reflexivity with scholars in New Media. My research also includes analysis of two popular media franchises Deborah Harkness' A Discovery of Witches and Fox's Bones television series to show similarities and differences among convergence-linked and multimodal narratives. Lastly, I also provide example assignments that can be taken, further developed, and utilized in classrooms engaging in multimodal composing practices. This dissertation pushes consideration of New Media into the work already being performed by those in Rhetoric and Composition.