Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF THE INVASIVE SPECIES CIRSIUM ARVENSE, CANADA THISTLE, AND PHRAGMITES AUSTRALIS, COMMON REED: USING ECOLOGICALLY BASED CONTROL MEASURES AT EACH STAGE OF THE INVASION PROCESS

Invasive plant species threaten natural areas by reducing biodiversity and altering ecosystem functions. They also impact agriculture by reducing crop and livestock productivity. Millions of dollars are spent on invasive species control each year, and traditionally, herbicides are used to manage invasive species. Herbicides have human and environmental health risks associated with them; therefore, it is essential that land managers and stakeholders attempt to reduce these risks by utilizing the principles of integrated weed management. Integrated weed management is a practice that incorporates a variety of measures and focuses on the ecology of the invasive plant to manage it. Roadways are high risk areas that have high incidence of invasive species. Roadways act as conduits for invasive species spread and are ideal harborages for population growth; therefore, roadways should be a primary target for invasive species control. There are four stages in the invasion process which an invasive species must overcome: transport, establishment, spread, and impact. The aim of this dissertation was to focus on these four stages and examine the mechanisms underlying the progression from one stage to the next, while also developing integrated weed management strategies. The target species were Phragmites australis, common reed, and Cisrium arvense, Canada thistle. The transport and establishment risks of P. australis can be reduced by removing rhizome fragments from soil when roadside maintenance is performed. The establishment and spread of C. arvense can be reduced by planting particular resistant species, e.g. Heterotheca villosa, especially those that can reduce light transmittance to the soil. Finally, the spread and impact of C. arvense can be mitigated on roadsides through the use of the herbicide aminopyralid. The risks associated with herbicide drift produced by application equipment can be reduced by using the Wet-Blade herbicide application system.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.