Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Biofilm responses to salmon carcass analog addition in central Idaho streams

Pacific salmon populations have declined due to human activity in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in decreased delivery of marine-derived nutrients to streams. Managers use artificial nutrient additions to increase juvenile salmon growth and survival and assume that added nutrients stimulate biofilm production, which propagates up the food web to juvenile salmon. We assessed biofilm responses (standing crop, nutrient limitation, and metabolism) to experimental additions of salmon carcass analog in tributaries of the Salmon River, Idaho in 2010 and 2011. Biofilm standing crop and nutrient limitation did not respond to analog, but primary productivity and respiration increased in the subset of streams where they were measured. Discrepancies between biofilm productivity and standing crop may occur if standing crop is constrained by physical and biological factors. Thus, conclusions about biofilm response to analog should not be based on standing crop alone and mitigation research may benefit from nutrient budgets of entire watersheds.

Federal and state policy influence on woody biomass utilization

A considerable portion of public lands in the United States is at risk of uncharacteristically severe wildfires due to a history of fire suppression. Wildfires already have detrimental impacts on the landscape and on communities in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) due to unnatural and overstocked forests. Strategies to mitigate wildfire risk include mechanical thinning and prescribed burning in areas with high wildfire risk. The material removed is often of little or no economic value. Woody biomass utilization (WBU) could offset the costs of hazardous fuel treatments if removed material could be used for wood products, heat, or electricity production. However, barriers due to transportation costs, removal costs, and physical constraints (such as steep slopes) hinder woody biomass utilization. Various federal and state policies attempt to overcome these barriers. WBU has the potential to aid in wildfire mitigation and meet growing state mandates for renewable energy. This research utilizes interview data from individuals involved with on-the-ground woody biomass removal and utilization to determine how federal and state policies influence woody biomass utilization. Results suggest that there is not one over-arching policy that hinders or promotes woody biomass utilization, but rather woody biomass utilization is hindered by organizational constraints related to time, cost, and quality of land management agencies’ actions. However, the use of stewardship contracting (a hybrid timber sale and service contract) shows promise for increased WBU, especially in states with favorable tax policies and renewable energy mandates. Policy recommendations to promote WBU include renewal of stewardship contracting legislations and a re-evaluation of land cover types suited for WBU. Potential future policies to consider include the indirect role of carbon dioxide emission reduction activities to promote wood energy and future impacts of air quality regulations.

Multi-antenna non-line-of-sight identification techniques for target localization in mobile ad-hoc networks

Target localization has a wide range of military and civilian applications in wireless mobile networks. Examples include battle-field surveillance, emergency 911 (E911), traffc alert, habitat monitoring, resource allocation, routing, and disaster mitigation. Basic localization techniques include time-of-arrival (TOA), direction-of-arrival (DOA) and received-signal strength (RSS) estimation. Techniques that are proposed based on TOA and DOA are very sensitive to the availability of Line-of-sight (LOS) which is the direct path between the transmitter and the receiver. If LOS is not available, TOA and DOA estimation errors create a large localization error. In order to reduce NLOS localization error, NLOS identifcation, mitigation, and localization techniques have been proposed. This research investigates NLOS identifcation for multiple antennas radio systems. The techniques proposed in the literature mainly use one antenna element to enable NLOS identifcation. When a single antenna is utilized, limited features of the wireless channel can be exploited to identify NLOS situations. However, in DOA-based wireless localization systems, multiple antenna elements are available. In addition, multiple antenna technology has been adopted in many widely used wireless systems such as wireless LAN 802.11n and WiMAX 802.16e which are good candidates for localization based services. In this work, the potential of spatial channel information for high performance NLOS identifcation is investigated. Considering narrowband multiple antenna wireless systems, two xvNLOS identifcation techniques are proposed. Here, the implementation of spatial correlation of channel coeffcients across antenna elements as a metric for NLOS identifcation is proposed. In order to obtain the spatial correlation, a new multi-input multi-output (MIMO) channel model based on rough surface theory is proposed. This model can be used to compute the spatial correlation between the antenna pair separated by any distance. In addition, a new NLOS identifcation technique that exploits the statistics of phase difference across two antenna elements is proposed. This technique assumes the phases received across two antenna elements are uncorrelated. This assumption is validated based on the well-known circular and elliptic scattering models. Next, it is proved that the channel Rician K-factor is a function of the phase difference variance. Exploiting Rician K-factor, techniques to identify NLOS scenarios are proposed. Considering wideband multiple antenna wireless systems which use MIMO-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signaling, space-time-frequency channel correlation is exploited to attain NLOS identifcation in time-varying, frequency-selective and spaceselective radio channels. Novel NLOS identi?cation measures based on space, time and frequency channel correlation are proposed and their performances are evaluated. These measures represent a better NLOS identifcation performance compared to those that only use space, time or frequency.

Kalman Filter approaches on crane swing

The purpose of this study is to explore a Kalman Filter approach to estimating swing of crane-suspended loads. Measuring real-time swing is needed to implement swing damping control strategies where crane joints are used to remove energy from a swinging load. The typical solution to measuring swing uses an inertial sensor attached to the hook block. Measured hook block twist is used to resolve the other two sensed body rates into tangential and radial swing. Uncertainty in the twist measurement leads to inaccurate tangential and radial swing calculations and ineffective swing damping. A typical mitigation approach is to bandpass the inertial sensor readings to remove low frequency drift and high frequency noise. The center frequency of the bandpass filter is usually designed to track the load length and the pass band width set to trade off performance with damping loop gain. The Kalman Filter approach developed here allows all swing motions (radial, tangential and twist) to be measured without the use of a bandpass filter. This provides an alternate solution for swing damping control implementation. After developing a Kalman Filter solution for a two-dimensional swing scenario, the three-dimensional system is considered where simplifying assumptions, suggested by the two-dimensional study, are exploited. One of the interesting aspects of the three-dimensional study is the hook block twist model. Unlike the mass-independence of a pendulum's natural frequency, the twist natural frequency depends both on the pendulum length and the load’s mass distribution. The linear Kalman Filter is applied to experimental data demonstrating the ability to extract the individual swing components for complex motions. It should be noted that the three-dimensional simplifying assumptions preclude the ability to measure two "secondary" hook block rotations. The ability to segregate these motions from the primary swing degrees of freedom was illustrated in the two-dimensional study and could be included into the three-dimensional solution if they were found to be important for a particular application.

Observations of volcanic emissions using satellite remote sensing

Volcanoes pose a threat to the human population at regional and global scales and so efficient monitoring is essential in order to effectively manage and mitigate the risks that they pose. Volcano monitoring from space has been possible for over thirty years and now, more than ever, a suite of instruments exists with the capability to observe emissions of gas and ash from a unique perspective. The goal of this research is to demonstrate the use of a range of satellite-based sensors in order to detect and quantify volcanic sulphur dioxide, and to assess the relative performances of each sensor against one another. Such comparisons are important in order to standardise retrievals and permit better estimations of the global contribution of sulphur dioxide to the atmosphere from volcanoes for climate modelling. In this work, retrievals of volcanic sulphur dioxide from a number of instruments are compared, and the individual performances at quantifying emissions from large, explosive volcanic eruptions are assessed. Retrievals vary widely from sensor to sensor, and often the use of a number of sensors in synergy can provide the most complete picture, rather than just one instrument alone. Volcanic emissions have the ability to result significant economic loses by grounding aircraft due to the high risk associated with ash encountering aircraft. As sulphur dioxide is often easier to measure than ash, it is often used as a proxy. This work examines whether this is a reasonable assumption, using the Icelandic eruption in early 2010 as a case study. Results indicate that although the two species are for the most part collocated, separation can occur under some conditions, meaning that it is essential to accurately measure both species in order to provide effective hazard mitigation. Finally, the usefulness of satellite remote sensing in quantifying the passive degassing from Turrialba, Costa Rica is demonstrated. The increase in activity from 2005 – 2010 can be observed in satellite data prior to the phreatic phase of early 2010, and can therefore potentially provide a useful indication of changing activity at some volcanoes.

ASTAXANTHIN PRODUCTION FROM HAEMATOCOCCUS PLUVIALIS UNDER VARIOUS LIGHT INTENSITIES AND CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS

The microalga Haematococcus pluvialis was cultivated in MES-volvox medium at various light intensities and CO2 concentrations. It was found that CO2 concentrations of 10 and 15%, in combination with high irradiance at initial pH =6.7, accelerate astaxanthin accumulation in H. pluvialis cells but obstruct cell growth. The purpose of this research study was to devise a one-stage process consisting of the simultaneous cultivation of H. pluvialis and astaxanthin production using high light intensity and high CO2 concentration. This could be achieved at 200 µE/m2s and 15% CO2 in growth medium at initial pH = 4.3. Compared to the traditional two-stage H. pluvialis cultivation system, this one-step process can save up to 8-9 days of astaxanthin production time. The astaxanthin content in H. pluvialis cells induced with high light intensity only or with a combination of high light intensity and high CO2 concentration had comparable astaxanthin content; 94 and 97 mg/g dry biomass, respectively. However, it was extremely low in nitrate-free medium at high irradiance alone or combined with high CO2 concentration, with an average value of 4 mg/g dry biomass. Cell density was 40% less in cultures under discontinuous illumination compared to continuous illumination. This process could serve as a microalgal CO2 mitigation system after further understanding of the CO2 fixation ability of H. pluvialis has been gained.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

EXAMINING POLICY CAPACITY INITIATIVES WITHIN CLIMATE CHANGE FRAMEWORKS IN THREE US AND CANADIAN SECTORS USING NVIVO CONTENT ANALYSIS

The climate change narrative has changed from one of mitigation to one of adaptation. Governments around the world have created climate change frameworks which address how the country can better cope with the expected and unexpected changes due to global climate change. In an effort to do so, federal governments of Canada and the United States, as well as some provinces and states within these countries, have created detailed documents which outline what steps must be taken to adapt to these changes. However, not much is mentioned about how these steps will be translated in to policy, and how that policy will eventually be implemented. To examine the ability of governments to acknowledge and incorporate the plethora of scientific information to policy, consideration must be made for policy capacity. This report focuses on three sectors: water supply and demand; drought and flood planning; and forest and grassland ecosystems, and the word ‘capacity’ as related to nine different forms of policy capacity acknowledged in these frameworks. Qualitative content analysis using NVivo was carried out on fifty four frameworks and the results obtained show that there is a greater consideration for managerial capacity compared to analytical or political capacity. The data also indicated that although there were more Canadian frameworks which referred to policy capacity, the frameworks from the United States actually considered policy capacity to a greater degree.

REMEDIATION OF TETRACYCLINE FROM WATER SOURCES USING VETIVER GRASS (Chrysopogon zizanioides L. Nash) AND TETRACYCLINE-TOLERANT ROOT-ASSOCIATED BACTERIA

Antibiotics are emerging contaminants worldwide. Due to insufficient policy regulations, public awareness, and the constant exposure of the environment to antibiotic sources has created a major environmental concern. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) are not equipped to filter-out these compounds before the discharge of the disinfected effluent into water sources (e.g., lakes and streams) and current available technologies are not equipped to remediate these compounds from environmental sources. Hence, the challenge remains to establish a biological system to remove these antibiotics from wastewater. An invitro hydroponic remediation system was developed using vetiver grass (Chrysopogon zizanioides L. Nash) to remediate tetracycline (TC) from water. Comparative metabolomics studies were conducted to investigate the metabolites/pathways associated with tetracycline metabolism in plants and TC-degrading bacteria. The results show that vetiver plants effectively uptake tetracycline from water sources. Vetiver root-associated bacteria recovered during the hydroponic remediation trial were highly tolerant to TC (as high as 600 ppm) and could use TC as a sole carbon and energy source. Growth conditions (pH, temperature, and oxygen requirement) for TC-tolerant bacteria were optimized for higher TC remediation capability from water sources. The plant (roots and shoots) and bacterial species were further characterized for the metabolites produced during the TC degradation process using GC-MS to identify the possible biochemical mechanism involved. Also, the plant root zone was screened for metabolites/enzymes that were secreted during antibiotic degradation and could potentially enhance the degradation process. The root zone was selected for this analysis because this region of the plant has shown a greater capacity for antibiotic degradation compared to the shoot zone. The role of antioxidant enzymes in TC degradation process revealed glutathione-S-transferase (GSTs) as an important group of enzymes in both plant and bacteria potentially involved in TC degradation process. Metabolomics results also suggest potential GST activity in the TC remediation/ transformation process used by plants. This information could be useful in gaining insights for the application of biological remediation systems for the mitigation of antibiotics from waste-water.

A STUDY OF THE IMPACTS OF FREEZE-THAW ON CLIFF RECESSION AT THE CALVERT CLIFFS IN CALVERT COUNTY, MARYLAND

The Calvert Cliffs, which form much of the western coastline of the Chesapeake Bay in Calvert County, Maryland, are actively eroding and destabilizing, resulting in a critical situation for many homes in close proximity to the slope's crest. Past studies have identified that where waves directly interact with the toe of the slope, wave action controls cliff recession; however, where waves do not regularly interact with the slope toe, the past work identified that freeze-thaw controls recession. This study investigated the validity of this second claim by analyzing the recession rate and freeze-thaw behavior of six study sites along the Calvert Cliffs that are not directly affected by waves. While waves do remove failed material from the toe, in these regions freeze-thaw is believed to be the dominant factor driving recession at the Calvert Cliffs. Past recession rates were calculated using historical aerial photographs and were analyzed together with a number of other variables selected to represent the freeze-thaw behavior of the Calvert Cliffs. The investigation studied sixteen independent variables and found that over 65% of recession at these study sites can be represented by the following five variables: (1) cliff face direction, (2 and 3) the percent of total cliff height composed of soil with freeze-thaw susceptibility F4 and F2, (4) the number of freeze-thaw cycles, and (5) the weighted shear strength. Future mitigation techniques at these sites should focus on addressing these variables and might include vegetation or addressing the presence of water along the face of the slope. Unmitigated, the Calvert Cliffs will continue to recede until a stable slope angle is reached and maintained.

Effects of Chemical Deicers on Amphibian Communites

Roads and highways present a unique challenge to wildlife as they exhibit substantial impacts on the surrounding ecosystem through the interruption of a number of ecological processes. With new roads added to the national highway system every year, an understanding of these impacts is required for effective mitigation of potential environmental impacts. A major contributor to these negative effects is the deposition of chemicals used in winter deicing activities to nearby surface waters. These chemicals often vary in composition and may affect freshwater species differently. The negative impacts of widespread deposition of sodium chloride (NaCl) have prompted a search for an `environmentally friendly' alternative. However, little research has investigated the potential environmental effects of widespread use of these alternatives. Herein, I detail the results of laboratory tests and field surveys designed to determine the impacts of road salt (NaCl) and other chemical deicers on amphibian communities in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Using larval amphibians I demonstrate the lethal impacts of a suite of chemical deicers on this sensitive, freshwater species. Larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvatica) were tolerant of short-term (96 hours) exposure to urea (CH4N2O), sodium chloride (NaCl), and magnesium chloride (MgCl2). However, these larvae were very sensitive to acetate products (C8H12CaMgO8, CH3COOK) and calcium chloride (CaCl2). These differences in tolerance suggest that certain deicers may be more harmful to amphibians than others. Secondly, I expanded this analysis to include an experiment designed to determine the sublethal effects of chronic exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of NaCl on two unique amphibian species, L. sylvatica and green frogs (L. clamitans). L. sylvatica tend to breed in small, ephemeral wetlands and metamorphose within a single season. However, L. clamitans breed primarily in more permanent wetlands and often remain as tadpoles for one year or more. These species employ different life history strategies in this region which may influence their response to chronic NaCl exposure. Both species demonstrated potentially harmful effects on individual fitness. L. sylvatica larvae had a high incidence of edema suggesting the NaCl exposure was a significant physiologic stressor to these larvae. L. clamitans larvae reduced tail length during their exposure which may affect adult fitness of these individuals. In order to determine the risk local amphibians face when using these roadside pools, I conducted a survey of the spatial distribution of chloride in the three northernmost counties of Michigan. This area receives a relatively low amount of NaCl which is confined to state and federal highways. The chloride concentrations in this region were much lower than those in urban systems; however, amphibians breeding in the local area may encounter harmful chloride levels arising from temporal variations in hydroperiods. Spatial variation of chloride levels suggests the road-effect zone for amphibians may be as large as 1000 m from a salt-treated highway. Lastly, I performed an analysis of the use of specific conductance to predict chloride concentrations in natural surface water bodies. A number of studies have used this regression to predict chloride concentrations from measurements of specific conductance. This method is often chosen in the place of ion chromatography due to budget and time constraints. However, using a regression method to characterize this relationship does not result in accurate chloride ion concentration estimates.