Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

High precision range estimation techniques for multi-path wireless environments

Range estimation is the core of many positioning systems such as radar, and Wireless Local Positioning Systems (WLPS). The estimation of range is achieved by estimating Time-of-Arrival (TOA). TOA represents the signal propagation delay between a transmitter and a receiver. Thus, error in TOA estimation causes degradation in range estimation performance. In wireless environments, noise, multipath, and limited bandwidth reduce TOA estimation performance. TOA estimation algorithms that are designed for wireless environments aim to improve the TOA estimation performance by mitigating the effect of closely spaced paths in practical (positive) signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regions. Limited bandwidth avoids the discrimination of closely spaced paths. This reduces TOA estimation performance. TOA estimation methods are evaluated as a function of SNR, bandwidth, and the number of reflections in multipath wireless environments, as well as their complexity. In this research, a TOA estimation technique based on Blind signal Separation (BSS) is proposed. This frequency domain method estimates TOA in wireless multipath environments for a given signal bandwidth. The structure of the proposed technique is presented and its complexity and performance are theoretically evaluated. It is depicted that the proposed method is not sensitive to SNR, number of reflections, and bandwidth. In general, as bandwidth increases, TOA estimation performance improves. However, spectrum is the most valuable resource in wireless systems and usually a large portion of spectrum to support high performance TOA estimation is not available. In addition, the radio frequency (RF) components of wideband systems suffer from high cost and complexity. Thus, a novel, multiband positioning structure is proposed. The proposed technique uses the available (non-contiguous) bands to support high performance TOA estimation. This system incorporates the capabilities of cognitive radio (CR) systems to sense the available spectrum (also called white spaces) and to incorporate white spaces for high-performance localization. First, contiguous bands that are divided into several non-equal, narrow sub-bands that possess the same SNR are concatenated to attain an accuracy corresponding to the equivalent full band. Two radio architectures are proposed and investigated: the signal is transmitted over available spectrum either simultaneously (parallel concatenation) or sequentially (serial concatenation). Low complexity radio designs that handle the concatenation process sequentially and in parallel are introduced. Different TOA estimation algorithms that are applicable to multiband scenarios are studied and their performance is theoretically evaluated and compared to simulations. Next, the results are extended to non-contiguous, non-equal sub-bands with the same SNR. These are more realistic assumptions in practical systems. The performance and complexity of the proposed technique is investigated as well. This study’s results show that selecting bandwidth, center frequency, and SNR levels for each sub-band can adapt positioning accuracy.

Optimal game theoretic distributed control methodologies in small scale power systems

This dissertation presents the competitive control methodologies for small-scale power system (SSPS). A SSPS is a collection of sources and loads that shares a common network which can be isolated during terrestrial disturbances. Micro-grids, naval ship electric power systems (NSEPS), aircraft power systems and telecommunication system power systems are typical examples of SSPS. The analysis and development of control systems for small-scale power systems (SSPS) lacks a defined slack bus. In addition, a change of a load or source will influence the real time system parameters of the system. Therefore, the control system should provide the required flexibility, to ensure operation as a single aggregated system. In most of the cases of a SSPS the sources and loads must be equipped with power electronic interfaces which can be modeled as a dynamic controllable quantity. The mathematical formulation of the micro-grid is carried out with the help of game theory, optimal control and fundamental theory of electrical power systems. Then the micro-grid can be viewed as a dynamical multi-objective optimization problem with nonlinear objectives and variables. Basically detailed analysis was done with optimal solutions with regards to start up transient modeling, bus selection modeling and level of communication within the micro-grids. In each approach a detail mathematical model is formed to observe the system response. The differential game theoretic approach was also used for modeling and optimization of startup transients. The startup transient controller was implemented with open loop, PI and feedback control methodologies. Then the hardware implementation was carried out to validate the theoretical results. The proposed game theoretic controller shows higher performances over traditional the PI controller during startup. In addition, the optimal transient surface is necessary while implementing the feedback controller for startup transient. Further, the experimental results are in agreement with the theoretical simulation. The bus selection and team communication was modeled with discrete and continuous game theory models. Although players have multiple choices, this controller is capable of choosing the optimum bus. Next the team communication structures are able to optimize the players’ Nash equilibrium point. All mathematical models are based on the local information of the load or source. As a result, these models are the keys to developing accurate distributed controllers.

WATER USE AND SYSTEM RELIABILITY UNDER DIESELGENERATOR AND SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWERED PUMPING SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY OF SOLLA TOGO

Access to improved potable water sources is recognized as one of the key factors in improving health and alleviating global poverty. In recently years, substantial investments have been made internationally in potable water infrastructure projects, allowing 2.3 billion people to gain access to potable water from 1990-2012. One such project was planned and installed in Solla, Togo, a rural village in the northern part of the country, from 2010-2012. Ethnographic studies revealed that, while the community has access to potable water, an estimated 45% of the village’s 1500 residents still rely on unprotected sources for drinking and cooking. Additionally, inequality in system use based on income level was revealed, with the higher income groups accessing the system more regularly than lower income groups. Cost, as well as the availability of cheaper sources, was identified as the main deterrent from using the new water distribution system. A new water-pricing scheme is investigated here with the intention of making the system accessible to a greater percentage of the population. Since 2012, a village-level water committee has been responsible for operations and maintenance (O&M), fulfilling the community management model that is recommended by many development theorists in order to create sustainable projects. The water committee received post-construction support, mostly in the form of technical support during system breakdowns, from the Togolese Ministry of Water and Sanitation (MWSVH). While this support has been valuable in maintaining a functional water supply system in Solla, the water committee still has managerial challenges, particularly with billing and fee collection. As a result, the water committee has only received 2% - 25% of the fees owed at each private connection and public tap stand, making their finances vulnerable when future repairs and capital replacements are necessary. A new management structure is proposed by the MWSVH that will pay utilities workers a wage and will hire an accountant in order to improve the local management and increase revenue. This proposal is analyzed under the new water pricing schemes that are presented. Initially, the rural water supply system was powered by a diesel-generator, but in 2013, a solar photo-voltaic power supply was installed. The new system proved a fiscal improvement for the village water committee, since it drastically reduced their annual O&M costs. However, the new system pumps a smaller volume of water on a daily basis and did not meet the community’s water needs during the dry season of 2014. A hydraulic network model was developed to investigate the system’s reliability under diesel-generator (DGPS) and solar photovoltaic (PVPS) power supplies. Additionally, a new system layout is proposed for the PVPS that allows pumping directly into the distribution line, circumventing the high head associated with pumping solely to the storage tank. It was determined that this new layout would allow for a greater volume of water to be provided to the demand points over the course of a day, meeting a greater fraction of the demand than with the current layout.

A REMOTE SENSING APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZE THE HYDROGEOLOGY OF MOUNTAINOUS AREAS: APPLICATION TO THE QUITO AQUIFER SYSTEM (QAS), ECUADOR

Climate change, intensive use, and population growth are threatening the availability of water resources. New sources of water, better knowledge of existing ones, and improved water management strategies are of paramount importance. Ground water is often considered as primary water source due to its advantages in terms of quantity, spatial distribution, and natural quality. Remote sensing techniques afford scientists a unique opportunity to characterize landscapes in order to assess groundwater resources, particularly in tectonically influenced areas. Aquifers in volcanic basins are considered the most productive aquifers in Latin America. Although topography is considered the primary driving force for groundwater flows in mountainous terrains, tectonic activity increases the complexity of these groundwater systems by altering the integrity of sedimentary rock units and the overlying drainage networks. Structural controls affect the primary hydraulic properties of the rock formations by developing barriers to flow in some cases and zones of preferential infiltration and subterranean in others. The study area focuses on the Quito Aquifer System (QAS) in Ecuador. The characterization of the hydrogeology started with a lineament analysis based on a combined remote sensing and digital terrain analysis approach. The application of classical tools for regional hydrogeological evaluation and shallow geophysical methods were useful to evaluate the impact of faulting and fracturing on the aquifer system. Given the spatial extension of the area and the complexity of the system, two levels of analysis were applied in this study. At the regional level, a lineament map was created for the QAS. Relationships between fractures, faults and lineaments and the configuration of the groundwater flow on the QAS were determined. At the local level, on the Plateaus region of the QAS, a detailed lineament map was obtained by using high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery and aspect map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). This map was complemented by the analysis of morphotectonic indicators and shallow geophysics that characterize fracture patterns. The development of the groundwater flow system was studied, drawing upon data pertaining to the aquifer system physical characteristics and topography. Hydrochemistry was used to ascertain the groundwater evolution and verify the correspondence of the flow patterns proposed in the flow system analysis. Isotopic analysis was employed to verify the origin of groundwater. The results of this study show that tectonism plays a very important role for the hydrology of the QAS. The results also demonstrate that faults influence a great deal of the topographic characteristics of the QAS and subsequently the configuration of the groundwater flow. Moreover, for the Plateaus region, the results demonstrate that the aquifer flow systems are affected by secondary porosity. This is a new conceptualization of the functioning of the aquifers on the QAS that will significantly contribute to the development of better strategies for the management of this important water resource.