PARTICIPANT IMPACTS FROM A PARTICIPATORY WATER MODELING WORKSHOP IN THE SONORA RIVER BASIN, MEXICO

Much of the research in the field of participatory modeling (PM) has focused on the developed world. Few cases are focused on developing regions, and even fewer on Latin American developing countries. The work that has been done in Latin America has often involved water management, often specifically involving water users, and has not focused on the decision making stage of the policy cycle. Little work has been done to measure the effect PM may have on the perceptions and beliefs of decision makers. In fact, throughout the field of PM, very few attempts have been made to quantitatively measure changes in participant beliefs and perceptions following participation. Of the very few exceptions, none have attempted to measure the long-term change in perceptions and beliefs. This research fills that gap. As part of a participatory modeling project in Sonora, Mexico, a region with water quantity and quality problems, I measured the change in beliefs among participants about water models: ability to use and understand them, their usefulness, and their accuracy. I also measured changes in beliefs about climate change, and about water quantity problems, specifically the causes, solutions, and impacts. I also assessed participant satisfaction with the process and outputs from the participatory modeling workshops. Participants were from water agencies, academic institutions, NGOs, and independent consulting firms. Results indicated that participant comfort and self-efficacy with water models, their beliefs in the usefulness of water models, and their beliefs about the impact of water quantity problems changed significantly as a result of the workshops. I present my findings and discuss the results.

Big Manistee River Tributaries as Potential Arctic Grayling Habitat

The Big Manistee River was one of the most well known Michigan rivers to historically support a population of Arctic grayling (Thymallus arctics). Overfishing, competition with introduced fish, and habitat loss due to logging are believed to have caused their decline and ultimate extirpation from the Big Manistee River around 1900 and from the State of Michigan by 1936. Grayling are a species of great cultural importance to Little River Band of Ottawa Indian tribal heritage and although past attempts to reintroduce Arctic grayling have been unsuccessful, a continued interest in their return led to the assessment of environmental conditions of tributaries within a 21 kilometer section of the Big Manistee River to determine if suitable habitat exists. Although data describing historical conditions in the Big Manistee River is limited, we reviewed the literature to determine abiotic conditions prior to Arctic grayling disappearance and the habitat conditions in rivers in western and northwestern North America where they currently exist. We assessed abiotic habitat metrics from 23 sites distributed across 8 tributaries within the Manistee River watershed. Data collected included basic water parameters, streambed substrate composition, channel profile and areal measurements of channel geomorphic unit, and stream velocity and discharge measurements. These environmental condition values were compared to literature values, habitat suitability thresholds, and current conditions of rivers with Arctic grayling populations to assess the feasibility of the abiotic habitat in Big Manistee River tributaries to support Arctic grayling. Although the historic grayling habitat in the region was disturbed during the era of major logging around the turn of the 20th century, our results indicate that some important abiotic conditions within Big Manistee River tributaries are within the range of conditions that support current and past populations of Arctic grayling. Seven tributaries contained between 20-30% pools by area, used by grayling for refuge. All but two tributaries were composed primarily of pebbles, with the remaining two dominated by fine substrates (sand, silt, clay). Basic water parameters and channel depth were within the ranges of those found for populations of Arctic grayling persisting in Montana, Alaska, and Canada for all tributaries. Based on the metrics analyzed in this study, suitable abiotic grayling habitat does exist in Big Manistee River tributaries.