Assessing land use and land cover change in tropical dry forest or Northern Chinandega, Nicaragus from 1985 to 2011

The objective of this study is to gain a quantitative understanding of land use and land cover change (LULCC) that have occurred in a rural Nicaraguan municipality by analyzing Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images. By comparing the potential extent of tropical dry forest (TDF) with Landsat 5 TM images, this study analyzes the loss of this forest type on a local level for the municipality of San Juan de Cinco Pinos (63.5 km2) in the Department of Chinandega. Change detection analysis shows where and how land use has changed from 1985 to the present. From 1985 to 2011, nearly 15% of the TDF in San Juan de Cinco Pinos was converted to other land uses. Of the 1434.2 ha of TDF that was present in 1985, 1223.64 ha remained in 2011. The deforestation is primarily a result of agricultural expansion and fuelwood extraction. If current rates of TDF deforestation continue, the municipality faces the prospect of losing its forest cover within the next few decades.

Land use/cover change using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems : Pic Macaya National Park, Haiti

A post classification change detection technique based on a hybrid classification approach (unsupervised and supervised) was applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+), and ASTER images acquired in 1987, 2000 and 2004 respectively to map land use/cover changes in the Pic Macaya National Park in the southern region of Haiti. Each image was classified individually into six land use/cover classes: built-up, agriculture, herbaceous, open pine forest, mixed forest, and barren land using unsupervised ISODATA and maximum likelihood supervised classifiers with the aid of field collected ground truth data collected in the field. Ground truth information, collected in the field in December 2007, and including equalized stratified random points which were visual interpreted were used to assess the accuracy of the classification results. The overall accuracy of the land classification for each image was respectively: 1987 (82%), 2000 (82%), 2004 (87%). A post classification change detection technique was used to produce change images for 1987 to 2000, 1987 to 2004, and 2000 to 2004. It was found that significant changes in the land use/cover occurred over the 17- year period. The results showed increases in built up (from 10% to 17%) and herbaceous (from 5% to 14%) areas between 1987 and 2004. The increase of herbaceous was mostly caused by the abandonment of exhausted agriculture lands. At the same time, open pine forest and mixed forest areas lost (75%) and (83%) of their area to other land use/cover types. Open pine forest (from 20% to 14%) and mixed forest (from18 to 12%) were transformed into agriculture area or barren land. This study illustrated the continuing deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion in the region, which in turn is leading to decrease in vegetative cover. The study also showed the importance of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to estimate timely changes in the land use/cover, and to evaluate their causes in order to design an ecological based management plan for the park.

Locating American Indian Sciences : a report on the development, use, and analysis of a survey of perceptions

All students in the United States of America are required to take science. But what if there is not a science, but in fact a number of sciences? Could every culture, perhaps every different grouping of people, create its own science? This report describes a preliminary survey, the goal of which is to improve the teaching of science at American Indian Opportunities and Industrialization Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota by beginning to understand the differences between Western and American Indian sciences.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Characterization of thermal and mechanical properties of polypropylene-based composites for fuel cell bipolar plates and development of educational tools in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies

In this project we developed conductive thermoplastic resins by adding varying amounts of three different carbon fillers: carbon black (CB), synthetic graphite (SG) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNT) to a polypropylene matrix for application as fuel cell bipolar plates. This component of fuel cells provides mechanical support to the stack, circulates the gases that participate in the electrochemical reaction within the fuel cell and allows for removal of the excess heat from the system. The materials fabricated in this work were tested to determine their mechanical and thermal properties. These materials were produced by adding varying amounts of single carbon fillers to a polypropylene matrix (2.5 to 15 wt.% Ketjenblack EC-600 JD carbon black, 10 to 80 wt.% Asbury Carbon's Thermocarb TC-300 synthetic graphite, and 2.5 to 15 wt.% of Hyperion Catalysis International's FIBRILTM multi-walled carbon nanotubes) In addition, composite materials containing combinations of these three fillers were produced. The thermal conductivity results showed an increase in both through-plane and in-plane thermal conductivities, with the largest increase observed for synthetic graphite. The Department of Energy (DOE) had previously set a thermal conductivity goal of 20 W/m·K, which was surpassed by formulations containing 75 wt.% and 80 wt.% SG, yielding in-plane thermal conductivity values of 24.4 W/m·K and 33.6 W/m·K, respectively. In addition, composites containing 2.5 wt.% CB, 65 wt.% SG, and 6 wt.% CNT in PP had an in–plane thermal conductivity of 37 W/m·K. Flexural and tensile tests were conducted. All composite formulations exceeded the flexural strength target of 25 MPa set by DOE. The tensile and flexural modulus of the composites increased with higher concentration of carbon fillers. Carbon black and synthetic graphite caused a decrease in the tensile and flexural strengths of the composites. However, carbon nanotubes increased the composite tensile and flexural strengths. Mathematical models were applied to estimate through-plane and in-plane thermal conductivities of single and multiple filler formulations, and tensile modulus of single-filler formulations. For thermal conductivity, Nielsen's model yielded accurate thermal conductivity values when compared to experimental results obtained through the Flash method. For prediction of tensile modulus Nielsen's model yielded the smallest error between the predicted and experimental values. The second part of this project consisted of the development of a curriculum in Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies to address different educational barriers identified by the Department of Energy. By the creation of new courses and enterprise programs in the areas of fuel cells and the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier, we introduced engineering students to the new technologies, policies and challenges present with this alternative energy. Feedback provided by students participating in these courses and enterprise programs indicate positive acceptance of the different educational tools. Results obtained from a survey applied to students after participating in these courses showed an increase in the knowledge and awareness of energy fundamentals, which indicates the modules developed in this project are effective in introducing students to alternative energy sources.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.