Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

SOLUTE-DERIVED THERMAL STABILITY OF NANOCRYSTALLINE ALUMINUM AND PROCESSING FACTOR INFLUENCE ON THE FORMATION OF AL6MN QUASICRYSTALS IN MELT-SPINNING

Thermal stability of nanograined metals can be difficult to attain due to the large driving force for grain growth that arises from the significant boundary area constituted by the nanostructure. Kinetic approaches for stabilization of the nanostructure effective at low homologous temperatures often fail at higher homologous temperatures. Thermodynamic approaches for thermal stabilization may offer higher temperature stability. In this research, modest alloying of aluminum with solute (1 at.% Sc, Yb, or Sr) was examined as a means to thermodynamically stabilize a bulk nanostructure at elevated temperatures. After using melt-spinning and ball-milling to create an extended solid-solution and nanostructure with average grain size on the order of 30-45 nm, 1 h annealing treatments at 673 K (0.72 Tm) , 773 K (0.83 Tm) , and 873 K (0.94 Tm) were applied. The alloys remain nanocrystalline (<100 nm) as measured by Warren-Averbach Fourier analysis of x-ray diffraction peaks and direct observation of TEM dark field micrographs, with the efficacy of stabilization: Sr>Yb>Sc. Disappearance of intermetallic phases in the Sr and Yb alloys in the x-ray diffraction spectra are observed to occur coincident with the stabilization after annealing, suggesting that precipitates dissolve and the boundaries are enriched with solute. Melt-spinning has also been shown to be an effective process to produce a class of ordered, but non-periodic crystals called quasicrystals. However, many of the factors related to the creation of the quasicrystals through melt-spinning are not optimized for specific chemistries and alloy systems. In a related but separate aspect of this research, meltspinning was utilized to create metastable quasicrystalline Al6Mn in an α-Al matrix through rapid solidification of Al-8Mn (by mol) and Al-10Mn (by mol) alloys. Wheel speed of the melt-spinning wheel and orifice diameter of the tube reservoir were varied to determine their effect on the resulting volume proportions of the resultant phases using integrated areas of collected x-ray diffraction spectra. The data were then used to extrapolate parameters for the Al-10Mn alloy which consistently produced Al6Mn quasicrystal with almost complete suppression of the equilibrium Al6Mn orthorhombic phase.

MODELING AND EXPERIMENTAL SETUP OF AN HCCI ENGINE

For the past three decades the automotive industry is facing two main conflicting challenges to improve fuel economy and meet emissions standards. This has driven the engineers and researchers around the world to develop engines and powertrain which can meet these two daunting challenges. Focusing on the internal combustion engines there are very few options to enhance their performance beyond the current standards without increasing the price considerably. The Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine technology is one of the combustion techniques which has the potential to partially meet the current critical challenges including CAFE standards and stringent EPA emissions standards. HCCI works on very lean mixtures compared to current SI engines, resulting in very low combustion temperatures and ultra-low NOx emissions. These engines when controlled accurately result in ultra-low soot formation. On the other hand HCCI engines face a problem of high unburnt hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions. This technology also faces acute combustion controls problem, which if not dealt properly with yields highly unfavorable operating conditions and exhaust emissions. This thesis contains two main parts. One part deals in developing an HCCI experimental setup and the other focusses on developing a grey box modelling technique to control HCCI exhaust gas emissions. The experimental part gives the complete details on modification made on the stock engine to run in HCCI mode. This part also comprises details and specifications of all the sensors, actuators and other auxiliary parts attached to the conventional SI engine in order to run and monitor the engine in SI mode and future SI-HCCI mode switching studies. In the latter part around 600 data points from two different HCCI setups for two different engines are studied. A grey-box model for emission prediction is developed. The grey box model is trained with the use of 75% data and the remaining data is used for validation purpose. An average of 70% increase in accuracy for predicting engine performance is found while using the grey-box over an empirical (black box) model during this study. The grey-box model provides a solution for the difficulty faced for real time control of an HCCI engine. The grey-box model in this thesis is the first study in literature to develop a control oriented model for predicting HCCI engine emissions for control.

WRITING A COMMUNITY GUIDEBOOK FOR EVALUATING LOW-GRADE GEOTHERMAL ENERGY FROM FLOODED UNDERGROUND MINES FOR HEATING AND COOLING BUILDINGS

When underground mines close they often fill with water from ground and surface sources; each mine can contain millions to billions of gallons of water. This water, heated by the Earth’s geothermal energy, reaches temperatures ideal for heat pumps. The sheer scale of these flooded underground mines presents a unique opportunity for large scale geothermal heat pump setups which would not be as economically, socially, and environmentally feasible anywhere else. A literature search revealed approximately 30 instances of flooded underground mines being used to heat and cool buildings worldwide. With thousands of closed/abandoned underground mines in the U.S. and a million estimated globally, why hasn’t this opportunity been more widely adopted? This project has found perception and lack of knowledge about the feasibility to be key barriers. To address these issues, this project drafted a guidebook for former mining communities titled A Community Guide to Mine Water Geothermal Heating and Cooling.

Open top chambers and infrared lamps : a comparison of heating efficacy and CO₂/CH₄ dynamics in a Lake Superior coastal peatland

Experimental warming provides a method to determine how an ecosystem will respond to increased temperatures. Northern peatland ecosystems, sensitive to changing climates, provide an excellent setting for experimental warming. Storing great quantities of carbon, northern peatlands play a critical role in regulating global temperatures. Two of the most common methods of experimental warming include open top chambers (OTCs) and infrared (IR) lamps. These warming systems have been used in many ecosystems throughout the world, yet their efficacy to create a warmer environment is variable and has not been widely studied. To date, there has not been a direct, experimentally controlled comparison of OTCs and IR lamps. As a result, a factorial study was implemented to compare the warming efficacy of OTCs and IR lamps and to examine the resulting carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) flux rates in a Lake Superior peatland. IR lamps warmed the ecosystem on average by 1-2 #°C, with the majority of warming occurring during nighttime hours. OTC's did not provide any long-term warming above control plots, which is contrary to similar OTC studies at high latitudes. By investigating diurnal heating patterns and micrometeorological variables, we were able to conclude that OTCs were not achieving strong daytime heating peaks and were often cooler than control plots during nighttime hours. Temperate day-length, cloudy and humid conditions, and latent heat loss were factors that inhibited OTC warming. There were no changes in CO2 flux between warming treatments in lawn plots. Gross ecosystem production was significantly greater in IR lamp-hummock plots, while ecosystem respiration was not affected. CH4 flux was not significantly affected by warming treatment. Minimal daytime heating differences, high ambient temperatures, decay resistant substrate, as well as other factors suppressed significant gas flux responses from warming treatments.

EVALUATION OF MAGNESIUM AS A HALL THRUSTER PROPELLANT

In this study, the use of magnesium as a Hall thruster propellant was evaluated. A xenon Hall thruster was modified such that magnesium propellant could be loaded into the anode and use waste heat from the thruster discharge to drive the propellant vaporization. A control scheme was developed, which allowed for precise control of the mass flow rate while still using plasma heating as the main mechanism for evaporation. The thruster anode, which also served as the propellant reservoir, was designed such that the open area was too low for sufficient vapor flow at normal operating temperatures (i.e. plasma heating alone). The remaining heat needed to achieve enough vapor flow to sustain thruster discharge came from a counter-wound resistive heater located behind the anode. The control system has the ability to arrest thermal runaway in a direct evaporation feed system and stabilize the discharge current during voltage-limited operation. A proportional-integral-derivative control algorithm was implemented to enable automated operation of the mass flow control system using the discharge current as the measured variable and the anode heater current as the controlled parameter. Steady-state operation at constant voltage with discharge current excursions less than 0.35 A was demonstrated for 70 min. Using this long-duration method, stable operation was achieved with heater powers as low as 6% of the total discharge power. Using the thermal mass flow control system the thruster operated stably enough and long enough that performance measurements could be obtained and compared to the performance of the thruster using xenon propellant. It was found that when operated with magnesium, the thruster has thrust ranging from 34 mN at 200 V to 39 mN at 300 V with 1.7 mg/s of propellant. It was found to have 27 mN of thrust at 300 V using 1.0 mg/s of propellant. The thrust-to-power ratio ranged from 24 mN/kW at 200 V to 18 mN/kW at 300 volts. The specific impulse was 2000 s at 200 V and upwards of 2700 s at 300 V. The anode efficiency was found to be ~23% using magnesium, which is substantially lower than the 40% anode efficiency of xenon at approximately equivalent molar flow rates. Measurements in the plasma plume of the thruster—operated using magnesium and xenon propellants—were obtained using a Faraday probe to measure off-axis current distribution, a retarding potential analyzer to measure ion energy, and a double Langmuir probe to measure plasma density, electron temperature, and plasma potential. Additionally, the off axis current distributions and ion energy distributions were compared to measurements made in krypton and bismuth plasmas obtained in previous studies of the same thruster. Comparisons showed that magnesium had the largest beam divergence of the four propellants while the others had similar divergence. The comparisons also showed that magnesium and krypton both had very low voltage utilization compared to xenon and bismuth. It is likely that the differences in plume structure are due to the atomic differences between the propellants; the ionization mean free path goes down with increasing atomic mass. Magnesium and krypton have long ionization mean free paths and therefore require physically larger thruster dimensions for efficient thruster operation and would benefit from magnetic shielding.